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161. The Libyan War: A Diplomatic History February - August 2011

Author:
Emily O'Brien and Andrew Sinclair
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Some crises flare up and are forgotten fairly quickly. Others offer lasting insights into the global balance of power and the state of international diplomacy. The Libyan crisis falls into the second category. In a period in which serious commentators dwell on "the decline of the West" and "the erosion of the post-Cold War order", the war has been both a test of Western military might and international cooperation. There have been multiple surprises. A pundit who predicted in January 2011 that NATO was about to embark on a new war involving a Muslim country would have been dismissed. But it would have seem equally outlandish to suggest that China and Russia might permit Western military actions against an Arab leader to win a UN mandate, let alone that the Arab League would actively support this outcome. Wellestablished assumptions about the evolution of the international system in the wake of Iraq and the financial crisis have been found wanting.
Topic:
NATO, Civil War, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

162. New social media and conflict in Kyrgyzstan

Author:
Neil Melvin and Tolkun Umaraliev
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
During 2010 Kyrgyzstan experienced two periods of conflict that took the country to the brink of civil war: the overthrow of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April and the ethnic violence in the south of the country in June. The use of blogs and social network sites as well as mobile and multimedia platforms during the upheaval has led some observers to link developments in Kyrgyzstan to other recent cases of social protest where new media has been prominent. However, these events offer no simple answer to the current social media debate.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan

163. Uncharted Waters: Thinking Through Syria's Dynamics

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Syrian crisis may or may not have entered its final phase, but it undoubtedly has entered its most dangerous one to date. The current stage is defined by an explosive mix of heightened strategic stakes tying into a regional and wider international competition on the one hand and emotionally charged attitudes, communal polarisation and political wishful thinking on the other. As dynamics in both Syria and the broader international arena turn squarely against the regime, reactions are ranging from hysterical defiance on the part of its supporters, optimism among protesters that a bloody stalemate finally might end and fears of sectarian retribution or even civil war shared by many, through to triumphalism among those who view the crisis as an historic opportunity to decisively tilt the regional balance of power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Syria

164. Making Cooperation Attractive: Post-referendum Relations between Egypt and the Sudan

Author:
Øystein Rolandsen and Jacob Høigilt
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The Sudan has gone through two harrowing civil wars since its independence in 1956. Foreign interference and assistance prolonged these, but external involvement has also been vital in Sudanese peace processes. This was the case with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the Government of the Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), the main rebel group, which was signed on 9 January 2005. The peace process that culminated in that agreement was led and hosted by the neighbouring countries through the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), with support from further afield, in particular the United States, United Kingdom, South Africa and Norway. These countries have now intensified their involvement in discussions of post-CPA arrangements. The CPA process will have momentous consequences also for Egypt, as thus for Sudanese-Egyptian relations. It is therefore important that Egypt have a clear policy towards, and a constructive engagement in, deliberations over the Sudan's future.
Topic:
Civil War, Democratization, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, United Kingdom, Sudan, and Egypt

165. The Sudan Referendum and Neighbouring Countries: Egypt and Uganda

Author:
Øystein Rolandsen, Jacob Høigilt, and Åshild Falch
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
As a former coloniser and the Sudan's Nile-valley neighbour to the north, Egypt will inevitably be affected by the Sudan's political transition. As Egypt's regional influence appears to wane, the Sudan's increasing economic strength and the likely secession of Southern Sudan exemplify Egypt's overall difficulties in regard to the regional politics of the Horn of Africa and Nile Basin. Egyptian policy-makers and diplomats struggle with fundamental contradictions in Egypt's current regional status, competing priorities, and the need to stay on good terms with all political parties in the Sudan. To be able to balance domestic needs, relations with its immediate neighbours, and its role as a regional power Egypt must reshape its foreign policy; Egypt's national interests in the Sudan preclude neutrality in the processes ahead. It can however play a key role in a joint regional and international effort to secure the peaceful secession for Southern Sudan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Democratization, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Islam
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Sudan, and Egypt

166. Rescuing the Peace in Southern Sudan

Author:
Maya Mailer and Lydia Poole
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The next 12 months will be critical for the future of Sudan. As the country marks the fifth anniversary of the signing of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended a devastating civil war, southern Sudan has seen a major upsurge in violence. In 2009, some 2,500 people were killed and 350,000 fled their homes. With landmark elections and a referendum on the horizon, the peace deal is fragile and the violence likely to escalate even further unless there is urgent international engagement.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan and Arabia

167. Negotiating Sudan's Post-Referendum Arrangements

Author:
Jon Temin
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
With Southern Sudan's referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or secede approaching, it is vital that the international community encourage and support negotiations on postreferendum arrangements, which include issues ranging from wealth sharing to citizenship rights to security arrangements. Good coordination among the international community will be essential. A single mediator with a clear and strong mandate should lead negotiations on postreferendum arrangements, supported by a contact group or group of friends that can insert targeted pressures and incentives into the process. The mediator needs to be strong enough to prevent “forum shopping” and contain or co-opt spoilers. States and non-state actors that wish to play a central role in negotiations on post-referendum arrangements should demonstrate a long term commitment to Sudan and to overseeing implementation of any agreement. Negotiations on post-referendum arrangements and the ongoing negotiations on Darfur should be kept separate.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

168. The United Nations Security Council and Civil War: First Insights from a New Dataset

Author:
James Cockayne, Christoph Mikulaschek, and Chris Perry
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
This report is the first publication produced by IPI's research project on Understanding Compliance with UN Security Council Resolutions. It provides fresh insights from the new IPI Security Council Compliance Database. The report examines trends in how the Security Council has engaged with civil wars since 1989, variations in where and when it chose to engage, and the gradual evolution of the Council's civil-war response strategies. Future analysis by this project will seek to provide answers to two questions: To what extent do civil-war parties comply with demands issued by the Security Council? And what factor or combination of factors best explains the variance in the level of compliance—e.g., conflict settings, conflict management strategies, or political dynamics within the Security Council?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, United Nations, and Peacekeeping

169. Congo : Pas de stabilité au Kivu malgré le rapprochement avec le Rwanda

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le plan de résolution du conf lit au Kivu consistant à pri-vilégier la solution militaire s'avère être un échec. Deux années après le début du rapprochement entre le président Congolais Joseph Kabila et son homologue rwandais Paul Kagame, les soldats gouvernementaux sont encore aux prises avec des miliciens pour le contrôle des terres et des zones minières. Bien qu'aucune des deux parties n'ait réellement les capacités de pr endre un ascendant définitif, elles ont toutes deux les ressources suffisantes pour prolonger la lutte. Dans le même temps, les civils subissent des violences extrêmes et la situation humanitaire se dété-riore. Les tensions ethniques se sont aggravées à l'annonce des plans de rapatriement de dizaines de milliers de réfu-giés congolais qui ont fui au Rwanda durant les années 1990. Le Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies a observé la situation se dégrader à l'est du Congo sans s'opposer aux décisions de Kagame et Kabila.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Economics, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

170. The Forever War: Inside India's Maoist Conflict

Author:
Megha Bahree
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
World Policy Journal
Institution:
World Policy Institute
Abstract:
CHHATTISGARH STATE, India—It was 4 p.m. one March afternoon in 2008. The victims were living in a relief camp in a village called Matwada. Two dozen members of a government-backed civilian militia, accompanied by at least one police officer, burst into their homes. They dragged four men out onto the street, across from a paramilitary office, and began to beat them with sticks. They paused to pour water over the Matwada men, waking them when they fainted out of pain and fear. When their wives flung themselves across their husbands' weakened bodies, they were beaten too. Then the men were dragged from sight, into the forest. One managed to escape. The next day the remaining three were found buried next to a stream, stabbed in the eyes and the neck and finished off with a knife stab to the head. The men were suspected of being informants, of aiding the nascent Maoist insurgency in the eastern Indian state of Chhattisgarh. The survivor and three widows filed a criminal case against the state, and a court decided recently that the State of Chhattisgarh would compensate them for the wrongful attacks.
Topic:
Civil War and Government
Political Geography:
India