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41. Towards An Inflation Targeting Regime in Zambia

Author:
Caesar Cheelo and Thulani Banda
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
In this paper, I seek to discuss the conduct of monetary policy in an inflation targeting framework. The objective is to understand structural and institutional nuances in settings where this framework is successful in controlling inflation and challenges that emerge in the implementation of inflation targeting. I deal with the question: which institutional conditions should exist to support the successful implementation of inflation targeting in countries that use it? I find several institutional and legal elements which are common and can potentially explain much of the success in the implementation of inflation targeting among their monetary authorities. I benchmark these elements with the concepts of transparency and accountability of the central bank which are central tenets in the discussion of inflation targeting. I note that central bank credibility is a key outstanding element in explaining the success of inflation targeting. Components such as central bank independence and commitment to low stable inflation as the overriding objective of monetary policy represent critical preconditions for inflation targeting and can sustain the credibility of monetary policy.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Inflation, Central Bank, Transparency, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

42. The Japanese Experience with QE and QQE

Author:
John Greenwood
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This article provides an overview of the three episodes of quantitative easing (QE) pursued by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) since 2001. It begins with a brief account of the initial reluctant shift to unorthodox policies under BOJ Governors Hayami and Fukui in 2001–06 (here designated QE1) and then covers the equally reluctant adoption of QE by Governor Shirakawa in 2010–13 (QE2). The article then turns to an account of the attempt since April 2013 by the BOJ under Governor Kuroda, designated “quantitative and qualitative easing” (QQE), to revive the economy and achieve a 2 percent inflation target. None of these attempts at QE has been successful in raising the broad money growth rate for M2 sustainably above the 2–3 percent per annum range where it has languished for the past 25 years. Consequently, Japan’s attempts at QE have all failed to raise the equilibrium level of Japanese nominal GDP by any material magnitude, and so far, attainment of the 2 percent inflation target under QQE has remained elusive. At the time of writing (October 2016), the Japanese economy therefore continues to grow at a low rate with periodic lapses into deflation. After discussing the case of Japan, the article compares the experience of the United States in 1929–33, when there was no QE, and the experience of 2008–14, when the Fed conducted QE over three periods. The comparison is deliberately focused on the quantitative aspects of the policy, not its interest rate effects. Finally, the article explains that there are two brands of QE, and that the failure of QE in Japan is fundamentally due to the choice of the wrong brand of QE. Given the type of QE that the Japanese authorities have chosen, the policy cannot be expected to succeed, except under limited conditions.1 If QE were to be implemented according to a different design, the prospects of success would be much greater. In brief, the primary reason for the failure of BOJ-style QE or QQE derives from the habitual tendency to buy securities from banks instead of from nonbank private-sector entities (such as nonbank financial firms, nonfinancial firms, households, or foreigners). While QE policy in Japan boosts the monetary base, it does not increase broad money. But it is broad money that drives nominal GDP, not the monetary base.
Topic:
History, Economy, Banks, and Central Bank
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

43. Devaluation of Azerbaijani National Currency; Causes and Consequences

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Starting on February 21st, 2015 the official exchange rate of the dollar to the manat, the Azerbaijani national currency, has been set at 1.05 manat, which is 33.86 percent higher than the exchange rate set prior to the beginning of the exchange rate weakening process. The Azerbaijani national currency has been depreciated against US dollar for the first time since 2006. Since the sharp drop of crude oil prices in the world market in the fall of 2014, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan has faced the dilemma of either a sharp depreciation or a gradual devaluation of the manat. In fact, the Central Bank has announced that a sharp depreciation would not be in the government’s agenda in the near future. But, just two days after the Central Bank’s governor’s official declaration on not having a sharp depreciation, the national currency of Azerbaijan has lost its value against major foreign currencies by 33.86 %. The Manat’s rate dropped to 1.05 from 0.78 against to US dollar.
Topic:
Economy, Exchange Rate Policy, Central Bank, and Currency
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

44. A Theory of How and Why Central-Bank Culture Supports Predatory Risk-Taking at Megabanks

Author:
Edward J. Kane
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper applies Schein’s model of organizational culture to financial firms and their prudential regulators. It identifies a series of hard-to-change cultural norms and assumptions that support go-for-broke risk-taking by megabanks that meets the every-day definition of theft. The problem is not to find new ways to constrain this behavior, but to change the norms that support it by establishing that managers of megabanks owe duties of loyalty, competence, and care directly to taxpayers.
Topic:
Economic Theory, Central Bank, Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. Elasticity and Discipline in the Global Swap Network

Author:
Perry Mehrling
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper sketches the outlines of the new international monetary system that has emerged in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. At the center of the system, a network of central bank swaps between the six major central banks serves as an elastic backstop for private foreign exchange operations. Farther out on the periphery, a further network of central bank swaps operates to economize on scarce reserves of the major currencies. Meanwhile, in the private foreign exchange market, basis swaps are emerging as the central location where liquidity is explicitly priced, inside the bounds set by central bank swaps.
Topic:
Markets, Finance, Global Financial Crisis, Central Bank, Banking, and Liquidity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

46. The Best of Rules and Discretion: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting in India

Author:
Pranjul Bhandari and Jeffrey Frankel
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The recent revival of interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. We argue that the case for NGDP targeting is even more appealing for mid-sized developing countries, because they tend to be more susceptible to supply shocks and terms of trade shocks. For India, in particular, one major exogenous supply shock is the monsoon rains. NGDP targeting splits the impact of supply shocks automatically between inflation and real GDP growth. In the case of inflation targeting (IT), by contrast, the full impact of an adverse supply shock or terms of trade shock is felt as a loss in real GDP alone. NGDP targeting arguably achieves the best of both worlds: it automatically accommodates supply shocks as most central banks with discretion would do anyway, while retaining the advantage of anchoring expectations as rules are designed to do. We outline a simple theoretical model and derive the conditions under which an NGDP targeting regime would dominate other regimes such as IT for achieving objectives of output and price stability. We go on to estimate for the case of India the main parameters needed to ascertain whether these conditions hold, most notably the slope of the aggregate supply curve. We find that under certain plausible conditions, nominal GDP targeting is indeed better placed than IT, especially in the face of the supply shocks that developing countries tend to experience.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, GDP, Inflation, and Central Bank
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

47. The Historical Role of the European Shadow Banking System in the Development and Evolution of Our Monetary Institutions

Author:
Israel Cedillo Lazcano
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
When we hear about the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis, immediately we relate it to the concept of “shadow banking system”; however, the credit intermediation involving lightly regulated entities and activities outside the traditional banking system are not new for the European Financial Systems, after all, many innovations developed in the past, were adopted by European nations and exported to the rest of the world (i.e. coinage and central banking), and European innovators unleashed several financial crises related to “shadowy” financial intermediaries (i.e. the Gebroeders de Neufville crisis of 1763). However, despite not many academics, legislators and regulators even agree on what “shadow banking” is, this latter does not refer exclusively to the functions of credit intermediation and maturity transformation. This concept also refers to the creation of assets such as digital media of exchange which are designed under the influence of Friedrich Hayek and the Austrian School of Economics. This lack of a uniform definition of “shadow banking” has limited our regulatory efforts on key issues like the private money creation, a source of vulnerability in the financial system that, paradoxically, at the same time could result in an opportunity to renovate European institutions, heirs of the tradition of the Wisselbank and the Bank of England which, during the seventeenth century, faced monetary innovations and led the European monetary revolution that originated the current monetary and regulatory practices implemented around the world.
Topic:
Regulation, Finance, Central Bank, Innovation, World System, and Shadow Banking
Political Geography:
Europe

48. Good Regulation is Good Governance 101

Author:
K N Vaidyanathan
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
There is an immediate need for observance of good governance in regulation and a restructuring of the regulatory architecture. Key to this is the recovery of ground lost by the regulator in ensuring market integrity. In 1925, at the time that Britain reverted to the gold standard, Winston Churchill, then Chancellor, said that he would like to see ‘finance less proud and industry more secure.’ The move was criticized by economists for overvaluation of the British Pound; but the quote was prescient and is especially relevant today, when the hubris of the financial markets has fractured the global economy so excessively. Course correction so far has relied on bailouts. Instead what is immediately needed is the observance of good governance in regulation and in the long term, a restructuring of the regulatory architecture. Key to this is the recovery of ground lost by the regulator in ensuring market integrity, reinforcement of the currency of financial markets viz., trust, and deliverance of market stability which will help the underlying economy and the society at large. In sum: ensuring good regulation through good governance. This is the challenge before regulators today. The impact and import of the global financial crisis can be judged by two simple numbers: global market capitalization and GDP growth. (Source – the World Federation of Exchanges www.world-exchanges.org data.worldbank.org), They grew from $17.1 trillion and $27.5 trillion in 1990 to $ 64.5 trillion and $ 63.2 trillion, in 2007 respectively. A year later, market capitalization had almost halved to $ 33.5 trillion while GDP growth fell from over 5% to 3% in 2008 and -0.5% in 2009. The crisis that surfaced in 2007 has already peaked twice, in 2008 and 2011, and is far from over. In every analysis, financial market regulators have been accused of sleeping at their desks, held captive by the industry, remaining benign as the party went on and even abetting the excesses both wittingly and unwittingly.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Governance, Regulation, Central Bank, and Caste
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

49. Interest on Excess Reserves as a Monetary Policy Instrument: The Experience of Foreign Central Banks

Author:
David Bowman, Etienne Gagnon, and Mike Leahy
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper reviews the experience of eight major foreign central banks with policy interest rates comparable to the interest rate on excess reserves paid by the Federal Reserve. We pursue two main lines of inquiry: 1) To what extent have these policy interest rates been lower bounds for short-term market rates, and 2) to what extent has tightening that included increasing these policy rates been achieved without reliance on reductions in reserves or other deposits held at the central bank? The foreign experience suggests that policy rate floors can be effective lower bounds for market rates, although incomplete access to central bank accounts and interest on them weakens this result. In addition, the foreign experience suggests that tightening by increasing the interest rate paid on central bank balances can help reduce or eliminate the need to drain balances. These results are consistent with theoretical results that show that tightening without draining is possible, irrespective of whether excess reserves are large or small.
Topic:
Markets, Interest Rates, Central Bank, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

50. Currency Reforms in Zimbabwe: an Analysis of Possible Currency Regimes

Author:
George Kararach, Phineas Kadenge, and Gibson Guvheya
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) adopted a multiple currencies regime (MCR) in February 2009 and demonetized the Zimbabwean dollar in July 2009 after almost a decade of economic crisis. The MCR strategy resulted in stabilizing the Zimbabwean economy; however, there are remaining concerns that need to be addressed. The purpose of this paper is to explore various options of currency regimes that could be adopted in the short and medium term in order to consolidate Economic stabilization and recovery in Zimbabwe. The paper proposes that the optimal choice of a particular currency regime be based on a framework that takes into account the following: (a) the advantages and disadvantages of a particular regime, (b) the need for correct timing and sequencing of policy tools and reform actions, (c) the prior capacity conditions in the country, and (d) the political commitment to undertake the necessary reforms. It is imperative to note that these reforms are no quick fixes for designing economic stabilization and recovery programs needed in Zimbabwe. The Zimbabwean authorities and stakeholders need to fulfill the aforesaid preconditions for successful currency reform, before collectively selecting from among the various options.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Reform, Central Bank, Fiscal Policy, Currency, and Safety Net
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe