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5791. Iran’s Cyber Threat: Espionage, Sabotage, and Revenge

Author:
Colin Anderson
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Incidents involving Iran have been among the most sophisticated, costly, and consequential attacks in the history of the internet. The four-decade-long U.S.-Iran cold war has increasingly moved into cyberspace, and Tehran has been among the leading targets of uniquely invasive and destructive cyber operations by the United States and its allies. At the same time, Tehran has become increasingly adept at conducting cyber espionage and disruptive attacks against opponents at home and abroad, ranging from Iranian civil society organizations to governmental and commercial institutions in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5792. Azerbaijani National Currency: Is the Current Status Quo Sustainable?

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Currently, in Azerbaijan and the Caucasus, the situation in the economies of the region is quite variable. On the other side of the ocean, the US Federal Reverse System has been continuously raising the key interest rate. In Russia, the ruble depreciated due to existing and probable sanctions, in Turkey, economic and political circumstances have led to the 40% loss of the lira’s value (and this figure is expected to further increase by the end of the year), and the withdrawal of the US from the Iran Nuclear Deal with replaced sanctions has caused more aggravation to the socio-economic situation and rapid deprecation of the Iranian rial in the southern neighbor of Azerbaijan. The so-called trade wars and new processes led by the current US government form serious risks for globalization and liberal trade.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5793. New Debt Policy in Azerbaijan: Hopes, Realities, Risks and Perspectives

Author:
Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
From the second half of 2014, Azerbaijani public debt increased considerably along with several new challenges facing the domestic economy. During this period, the ratio of foreign debt to GDP rose from 8.6% (01.01.2015) to 22.8% (01.06.2018). The increase was 3.4 billion US dollars in nominal terms. At the beginning of 2018, Azerbaijan’s public debt amounted to 10 billion 100 million US dollars, while the value of loans taken with state guarantees reached 12 billion 682 million US dollars, raising the ratio of debt to GDP to 55%. The increase in the debt burden, particularly external debt liabilities, has caused concern both in the local community and in the government. Specifically, the deterioration of the financial situation of publicly-funded state institutions has raised the likelihood that the debt burden on this category will turn into a fiscal burden. As a result, the “Medium and long-term strategy for public debt management in the Republic of Azerbaijan” was approved on 24.08.2018
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5794. Social Economy for Azerbaijan: a key component of Sustainable Development?

Author:
Victoria Bittner
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The paper aims to bring readers’ attention to the Social Economy as an alternative economic system and reanimate the development of a Social Economy sector in Azerbaijan. At the moment, the term Social Economy does not have a fixed definition and, therefore, this study tries to provide an explanation of it. Moreover, this paper describes the implications and benefits of the Social Economy in and for Azerbaijan and offers mechanisms for its further development. The study explains the Social Economy’s necessity for the future sustainable development of the country, as there are important correlations between the two. There are many opportunities that can be opened by this sector and, thus, the country should develop a social-welfare-maximization approach to the economy
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5795. Natural partners? Europe, Japan and security in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Luis Simon
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
Europeans and Japanese are often described as ‘natural’ partners. As liberal democracies, market economies and close allies of the US, they have similar world views and share many interests. They also have a long history of cooperation, whose foundations go back to Japan’s embracing of modernisation and industrialisation in the late 19th century along European lines
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5796. Forty years of democratic Spain: Political, economic, foreign policy and social change, 1978-2018

Author:
William Chislett
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
Whichever way one looks at it, Spain has been profoundly transformed since the 1978 democratic Constitution that sealed the end of the 1939-75 dictatorship of General Francisco Franco, the victor of the three-year Civil War. Be it economically with, for example, the creation of significant number of multinationals or the world’s second-largest tourism industry in terms of visitors (81.8 million in 2017), politically with a vibrant democracy that ranks high in classifications, socially with the greatly improved status of women or in foreign policy –where Spain has reclaimed its place on the international stage–, the country bears no resemblance to what it was like 40 years ago. Over the period, per capita income at purchasing power parity increased fivefold and life expectancy at birth rose by almost 10 years. All the more remarkable is that the transition, guided by King Juan Carlos I, was achieved in the face of considerable adversity. It was not guaranteed from the outset to be successful: the Basque terrorist group ETA killed an average of 50 people a year in the first decade of democracy (and mounted assassination attempts in 1995 on both the King and the Prime Minister, José María Aznar), and Francoist officers staged a coup in 1981 in an attempt to turn back the clock. The economy, which was entering a period of recession, galloping inflation and rising unemployment, was also subjected to unprecedented competition after decades of protectionism. In the first three months of 1976 there were 17,731 cases of industrial action alone. Today’s problems, such as the very high jobless rate, particularly among young adults, acute income inequality, increased social exclusion, the illegal push for independence in Catalonia and corruption in the political class do not detract from the fact that Spain has enjoyed an unprecedented period of prosperity and stability over the past 40 years. Spain has achieved conditions that are similar –in some cases better– than in the rest of Western European nations, disproving the theory, still beloved in some quarters, of the country’s ‘exceptional nature’ or ‘anomaly’.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5797. EU scenarios for 2027

Author:
Antonio Estella
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
In 2008 I published a paper on ‘EU scenarios for 2017’ (Estella, 2008). It was written over the course of 2007, discussed in different economic, legal and political circuits, and finally published by the Elcano Royal Institute a year later. The report was motivated by the discussion on the future of the EU that started that year with the establishment by the European Council of 14 December 2007 of the so-called ‘González’ reflection group. The group, chaired by the former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe González, started work at the beginning of 2008 and delivered its final report in 2010 (European Council, 2010). The aim of my 2008 report was to try to ascertain where the EU would be in 2017, and why it would be there.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5798. Partnering for democracy: protecting the democratic order in post-Brexit Europe

Author:
Pablo José Castillo Ortiz
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
The EU has been a key actor in the democratisation of the European continent and in the protection of the culture of human rights in Europe. To do so, the EU has used strategies and tools such as linkage action vis-a-vis third countries, democratic conditionality for accession to the Union and other forms of leverage, functional cooperation with third countries, the creation of the rule-of-law mechanism and the enactment of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5799. Rebuilding Iraq’s Public Works Infrastructure Following the Defeat of ISIS

Author:
Frank R. Gunter
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
This report studies the challenges of rebuilding Iraq’s public works infrastructure following the “perfect storm” of the ISIS insurgency and low oil prices. The major challenge is that the Government of Iraq’s estimate of $88 billion severely understates total
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5800. The Resiliency of Turkey-Russia Relations

Author:
Selim Koru
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The Republic of Turkey and the Russian Federation are at odds over multiple issues, not least the Syrian Civil War, where they back warring proxies. Yet the two countries have bounced back from crises and are quickly deepening
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus