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10872. A Cautionary Tale of Zambia’s International Sovereign Bond Issuances
- Author:
- Shebo Nalishebo and Albert Halwampa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, Zambia has been faced with the increased need to plug huge infrastructural gaps. However, the slowing down of bilateral and multilateral financing due to austerity measures in developed economies has made the country diversify its budget and project financing options by issuing Eurobonds. Eurobonds are commercial borrowings by governments in currencies other than their own - in Zambia’s case, the borrowing is denominated in US dollars. Since 2012, the Zambian Government has issued two ten-year sovereign bonds collectively worth US$1.75 billion mainly to finance infrastructure projects. Eurobonds bring with them opportunities for economic development, but there are risks. This report assesses the current legal and institutional frameworks governing borrowing from international capital markets in Zambia, including the role of credit rating agencies. It also examines the benefits, costs and risks associated with the issuance of sovereign bonds, including the cost and risk of sovereign defaults. It also proposes the mitigation of these costs and risks. Eurobonds offer African countries easy access to monies that are free from the stringent conditionalities that often come with the traditional concessional borrowing. Eurobonds also strengthen macroeconomic discipline and are used as a benchmark for pricing subnational bonds. If the borrowed funds are spent on projects that offer a greater scope for augmenting revenue earnings and creating employment opportunities, this would accelerate economic growth and reduce the high poverty levels that Africa faces.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic Development, Public Debt, Bonds, and Eurobonds
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
10873. Eurobonds Repayment: Limiting the Risks
- Author:
- Shebo Nalishebo and Albert Halwampa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the Zambian economy has been growing strongly and the country has increasingly been faced with the need to plug huge infrastructural gaps. However, the slowing down of bilateral and multilateral financing due to austerity measures in developed economies and the World Bank’s reclassification of Zambia as a lower middle income country has led financiers to divert concessional loans to other needy countries in the low income bracket. Consequently, Zambia has had to diversify its budget and project financing options by issuing Eurobonds which are commercial borrowings by governments in currencies other than their own - in Zambia’s case, it is denominated in US dollars. Since 2012, the Zambian Government has issued two ten-year sovereign bonds collectively worth US$1.75 billion to mainly finance infrastructure projects. These two bonds amounted to 37% of Zambia’s external debt in 2014. With an average coupon rate of 6.9%, the two bonds have bullet repayment structures, implying that lump sum principal payments will be paid at the end of their respective ten-year maturity periods. The coupon rate is the interest rate at the time of issuance. Notwithstanding the high interest payments of over US$125 million annually, the bullet structure of the two bonds may have significant repayment risks as the country is expected to pay out the US$1.75 billion within a two-year period (in 2022 and 2024). The country may experience difficulty in repaying or refinancing the face value at maturity if the money is not spent in activities with high economic returns and if there are adverse changes in its exchange rate or international market conditions. The risks are already on the horizon – the recent depreciation of the Kwacha has increased debt servicing costs, while the low copper prices have reduced the much-needed export revenues used to service debt. Has Zambia dug itself into another debt hole? What measures can be put in place to mitigate the risk of a pending default?
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic growth, Bonds, and Eurobonds
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
10874. The Normative Terrain of the Global Refugee Regime
- Author:
- Alexander Betts
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Carnegie Council
- Abstract:
- The global refugee regime encompasses the rules, norms, principles, and decision-making procedures that govern states' responses to refugees. It comprises a set of norms, primarily those entrenched in the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, which defines who is a refugee and the rights to which such people are entitled. It also comprises an international organization, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), which has supervisory responsibility for ensuring that states meet their obligations toward refugees.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Refugees, Displacement, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
10875. Nuevos planteamientos en la seguridad energética de la Unión Europea y opciones en el Mediterráneo Occidental
- Author:
- Soledad Segoviano
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- Durante la última década, la seguridad energética ha experimentado una escalada en la lista de prioridades estratégicas de la política energética y exterior de la UE. Las profundas transformaciones en el panorama energético global, impulsadas por los continuos avances tecnológicos, importantes desafíos geopolíticos, además de los imperativos derivados de la transición hacia un sistema energético descarbonizado, exigen la reevaluación de la estrategia de seguridad energética de la UE. Un proceso que, sin embargo, se encuentra condicionado por las tensiones derivadas de la necesidad declarada en favor de políticas de cooperación y coordinación reforzadas y el respeto por los intereses nacionales energéticos de los Estados Miembros. El objetivo de este trabajo se centra en analizar los desafíos que afronta la estrategia de seguridad energética de la UE en un mundo en transformación, identificando políticas y mecanismos que contribuyan a su fortalecimiento. La promoción y desarrollo de unas sólidas relaciones energéticas entre la UE y sus vecinos del sur del Mediterráneo representan una extraordinaria oportunidad para diseñar y alcanzar renovados objetivos estratégicos en beneficio de ambas regiones.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Mediterranean
10876. Hacia un nuevo y diferente «Flanco Sur» en el Gran Magreb-Sahel
- Author:
- Raquel Barrás and Pablo Rey García
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- La unión de espacios subgobernados, la corrupción, el crimen organizado y terrorismo es la amenaza a la que se enfrenta la UE y sus estados miembros en el Gran Magreb, el cual está recreando un nuevo y diferente Flanco Sur al que existía durante la Guerra Fría. El aumento de la actividad extremista en la región del Sahel-Sáhara a partir de 2005 ha ido en paralelo con el crecimiento de las redes de crimen organizado transnacional a través del área. Aunque hay un intenso debate sobre su relación, intensidad e impacto, es una dinámica innegable en el área. La UE no tiene realmente una política unificada Magreb-Sahel y en términos de crimen organizado y terrorismo, el Sahel no se puede separar del Magreb. Hay una comprensión limitada y parcial del problema tanto en términos de amenazas como en soluciones viables, ampliado irremediablemente por la acción de Boko Haram y desbordando la visión, proyección y estrategia de la UE. A pesar del "Sahel Regional Action Plan 2015-2020", las medidas tomadas son reducidas, muy recientes y probablemente insuficientes y tardías desde el punto de vista de la dinámica y sinergia entre terrorismo-crimen organizado en un contexto de corrupción. La UE sigue manteniendo un enfoque seguridad-desarrollo, básicamente en una concepción de seguridad humana, a pesar de que este enfoque es altamente discutible para enfrentarse a este tipo de amenazas.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, European Union, Conflict, Hybrid Warfare, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Africa, Morocco, and Sahel
10877. Hostis ante portas: el poder, la guerra y la figura del enemigo en las relaciones internacionales
- Author:
- Valerio d'Angelo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- En este artículo me propongo enmarcar la evolución de la figura del enemigo político al interior de la más general evolución del ordenamiento del sistema internacional. La tesis que se afirma es que la detección del enemigo es siempre una construcción discursiva consecuente a las trasformaciones del poder hegemónico y de su manera de conducir una guerra. Ilustraré por lo tanto los cambios históricos que la noción de enemigo ha sufrido, desde Westfalia hasta los modernos programas de contrainsurgencia. Detectaré tres grandes macromarcos (el mundo Westfaliano, la Guerra Fría, el post-11/S) donde un cambio significativo del equilibrio del poder conlleva un cambio en su capacidad de librar una guerra y, de ahí, una distinta identificación de la figura del enemigo.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
10878. Las «nuevas guerras»: una propuesta metodológica para su análisis
- Author:
- Victor-Mario Bados Nieto and Marién Duran Cenit
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- Hoy día existen numerosos conflictos con características diferentes y singulares difícilmente encuadrables en los arquetipos de los conflictos armados tradicionales o guerras convencionales. De los muchos y variados apelativos surgidos principalmente desde el Fin de las Guerra Fría y como contraposición a las guerras clásicas, fue el concepto de "nuevas guerras" el que tuvo una mayor acogida. Sin embargo, como muchas otras denominaciones, consideramos que no podemos apreciarlo como una herramienta enteramente práctica para el estudio de toda la tipología de conflictos que existen. Por ello, el presente trabajo, mediante la revisión de la literatura más importante sobre estos temas, tiene como objeto proporcionar una herramienta teórico-metodológica, para que mediante la operacionalización de las variables identificativas de las "nuevas guerras", se puedan estudiar de forma más pormenorizada los conflictos contemporáneos para poder establecer comparaciones que arrojen luz sobre las similitudes y las diferencias.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, War, Fragile/Failed State, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
10879. A New Threat Landscape in 2015
- Author:
- Rohan Gunaratna
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- The al Qaeda-centric terrorist landscape is eclipsed by an Islamic State (IS)-centric threat landscape. Today, an al Qaeda-IS hybrid influences and shapes the global threat landscape of political violence. With three dozen threat groups in Asia, Africa and the Middle East expressing support to the Caliphate and pledging allegiance to self-styled Caliph Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in 2014, IS will expand its international footprint in 2015. IS is transforming from a group in the Iraq and Syrian Theatre to a global network.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Non-Traditional Threats
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
10880. Does Al Qaeda Central Still Matter?
- Author:
- Kangil Lee
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- This article examines whether Al Qaeda Central are still relevant or not. By investigating Al Qaeda Central’s activities, which are aimed at provoking violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as its continuous plots of direct attacks against the US, this article shows that Al Qaeda’s operational capability is stronger than anticipated by the US and other scholars. In addition, Al Qaeda affiliates maintain a close relationship with the group which in turn facilitates Al Qaeda Central’s resiliency. Moreover, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)’s aggressive support and contribution to the Al Qaeda network indicates that Al Qaeda Central’s longevity depends on its relationship with affiliates. The article concludes that under these conditions, Al Qaeda Central still has a place in global security discussions.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Haqqani Network
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia