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10741. Nidaa Tounes Rift Exacerbates Government Crisis

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Nidaa Tounes, a party born post-Tunisian revolution, is currently experiencing internal rifts, which in turn is having an impact on the country’s secular-Islamist ruling government’s ability to move forward. This rift became especially obvious after the party’s founder and leader, Beji Caid Essebsi, won the presidency and consequently resigned as party leader according to Tunisia’s constitutional law. This position paper examines key actors and roots of the party’s rift, how this rift has impacted state institutions and future scenarios for the governing coalition.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Terrorism, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Tunisia

10742. Implications of Downed Russian Jet on Turkey-Russia Relations

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
After Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane 24 November 2015, tensions between the two countries came to a head, particularly given their very different political positions on the Syrian issue. With Russia an ally of the Assad regime, and Turkey an ally of the opposition, the downed Russian jet has been the latest in a string of incidents that have threatened otherwise growing economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. This position paper argues that escalation of the tension between the two sides will have ramifications not only for the two parties involved, but also for the Syrian crisis.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Turkey

10743. What Does New Political Push Mean for Syria?

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Syrian armed opposition’s gains, especially in northern Syria, have stirred Russian and US fears about the possibility of a major regime collapse. This has prompted Moscow to return to the political solution approach to avert further expansion of the Islamic State (IS or Daesh) and to stop the regime’s power from completely dissolving. For the US, this has prompted President Obama to intensify bids to Iran for cooperation to resolve the Syrian crisis. This is in part to prove to his Republican opponents that the nuclear deal will contribute to modifying Iran’s behaviour and will motivate the country to cooperate in resolving the region’s crises rather than exacerbating them. Parallel to the military escalation in Zabadani, Iran re-launched its political initiative, which the Syrian opposition rejected, but which the regime quickly accepted because it guarantees its survival. Turkey has directly entered the fray in an effort to protect its interests in northern Syria, managing to broker a US agreement to establish an IS-free zone (which Turkey also intends to be Kurd-free).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Syria

10744. Turkish Government Crisis Makes Early Elections a Reality

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Following the results of the recent parliamentary election in Turkey, efforts by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) to form a coalition government failed. An alliance between the AKP and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) seems unlikely because, among other reasons, the latter is connected to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) this week also rejected the idea of a coalition with the AKP. Turkey is thus set for early elections in October or November.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Elections
Political Geography:
Turkey

10745. Tunisia’s Security Crisis: The Challenge Of Restoring Control

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Although Tunisia’s model of democratic transition has been touted as the most successful and peaceful among Arab Spring nations thus far, recent armed attacks have affected this image, with analysts now left questioning the country’s security. However, it seems that many observers had actually overlooked a brewing socio-economic crisis and the state’s scarce resources to cope with unemployment and the imposed war on armed groups within the state. The population is fearful of more deadly attacks given the state security apparatus’ weaknesses and helplessness in the face of ever more sophisticated armed groups increasingly targeting the country’s economic structures. The coming months will be difficult for Tunisia, particularly because the government doesn’t have solutions or resources to address the escalating crisis. Despite talk of changing the government before the end of the year, a significant breakthrough is unlikely.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Tunisia

10746. Political Rhetoric and the Challenges to Diversity in Russia

Author:
Viktoria Martovskaya
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
The author of this publication argues that negative societal trends - namely, raising the levels of inter-ethnic tensions, intolerance to diversity and hostility to the ‘others’ – can be predicted through the analysis of political rhetoric. The method of reconstruction of society through the analysis of rhetoric can serve as an early-warning system detecting the approach of an ethnic crisis.
Topic:
Political Theory
Political Geography:
Russia

10747. Dissatisfied Voters and No Alternative: The Unchallenged Position of Political Elites in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
Ashley W. Hooper
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
In February 2014, violent protests erupted in Tuzla and quickly spread to multiple other Bosnian cities, including Mostar and Sarajevo. Initially, the protests were labeled as the “Bosnian Spring,” a term used to describe a state that is undergoing revolutionary change; however, this term was used prematurely in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina and by April the protest movement had completely lost momentum. The cause for dissatisfaction among citizens was driven by nearly a decade of political stagnation. The lack of political progression can largely be attributed to the legacy of the Dayton Peace Agreement, which brought an end to the ethnically driven atrocities. However, the agreement also formed a uniquely complicated governmental structure based on ethnicity—providing a political framework in which elites are able to evade accountability. Political competition has been greatly decreased by the continued presence of wartime-ethno parties, which dominate the political discourse—perpetuating fear and mistrust among the electorate. I argue that there is a crisis of democratization halting the political progression and European integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina caused by a lack of both political accountability and competition.
Topic:
Political Theory, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10748. An Inventory of Misuses of Democracy in Western Balkans

Author:
Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Since the early 2000s in Western Balkans (WBs) powerful groups have misused democracy in numerous ways. Governing elites have tolerated the capture of public policy sectors by business conglomerates and have also invited in selected businessmen to capture such sectors. Elites have adapted to inherited frail institutions and have created other deficient institutions to serve their changing strategies. To a lesser extent, the same holds for policy capture by relatively privileged occupational groups of insiders, who are less powerful than elites. On their way up to enrichment and reproduction of relatively privileged status, elites and privileged occupational groups have not encountered the obstacles usually found in other European democracies, such as a relatively strong parliament, judiciary, civil society, mass media and a public bureaucracy functioning with a minimum of autonomy from the government. Policy capture would have been impossible without first achieving and consolidating the supremacy of the government over the legislature and the judiciary. This vital for contemporary democracies balance of powers has been destroyed in WBs to an extent larger than in other European democracies. It will not be rectified, as long as civil society and parliamentary opposition remain weak, while media pluralism is restricted in WB democracies.
Topic:
Democracy
Political Geography:
Balkans

10749. Of Arms, Freedom, and Capitalism What Piers Morgan Does Not Know

Author:
Charles Breiterman
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
Generations of students have been taught that the emergence of Parliament and capitalism in England were caused by factors such as the rise of the bourgeoisie, the rediscovery of ancient Greek democracy and the Roman republic, the Magna Carta, the enclosure movement, the Protestant ethic of accumulation (which may not actually apply to England), and English common law. To these factors should be added: a population of extremely well-armed and trained commoners, reliance upon them by the monarchy for military service, and the willingness of the commoners to stage large-scale and ferocious rebellions. It was highly advisable to secure the consent of the commoners before taxing them. The power of the commoners limited what taxation could be imposed. Limited taxation allowed commoners to accumulate substantial sums of money, a crucial factor in the emergence of capitalism in England as early as the 1400s. The power of the commoners forced elites to accommodate the notion of government for the common good (commonweal), eroded the notion that the aristocrat was superior to the commoner, and strengthened the case for equality of opportunity. The history of England stands for the proposition that contemporary firearms laws should be the most permissive reasonably possible. The article also discusses the need to achieve social change without violence. But this is not possible with many regimes worldwide, and it is naive to think tyranny can’t happen here.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Political Theory, and Capitalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10750. The Power of Staying Put: Nonviolent Resistance Against Armed Groups in Colombia

Author:
Juan Masullo
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC)
Abstract:
Confronted with civil war, local civilians typically either collaborate with the strongest actor in town or flee the area. Yet civilians are not stuck only with these choices. Collectively defying armed groups by engaging in organized nonviolent forms of noncooperation, self-organization and disruption is another option. This monograph explores this option through sustained and organized civil resistance led by ordinary peasants against state and non-state repressive actors in Colombia’s longstanding civil war: the case of the Peace Community of San José de Apartadó.
Topic:
Human Rights
Political Geography:
Global Focus