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12. Trade trends show China should take the opportunity to diversify its market
- Author:
- Dong Yan, Ma Yingying, and Xu Tingting
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- The China-US trade row has been drawing a lot of attention. A detailed review of the bilateral trade situation between China and the US from January through April is a good reference for the future trend. Also, as uncertainties loomed amid tariff hikes, some related US industries were afflicted, such as plants, minerals and precious metal in the first quarter.
- Topic:
- Markets, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Diversification, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
13. Opinion: What Is China’s Core Economic Interest in Trade War?
- Author:
- Qiyuan Xu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- The trade conflict between China and the U.S. has lasted for more than half a year. The two sides have held several rounds of consultations, but agreements were later broken and tensions have only intensified. The spat will likely be protracted, with frictions to continue and possibly escalate for a period of time, given the two countries’ diverging interests, public opinions and historical experiences. A broad range of issues are involved in the trade dispute. For example, the U.S. has pressured China on forced technology transfer, talent strategy and industrial policy issues, as well as issues the two sides have long been at odds over, such as intellectual property rights, labor, environmental protection, stateowned enterprise reform and foreign exchange rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. has targeted products and sectors that go well beyond those in which China has a competitive advantage. The U.S. tariffs also target industries that the country plans to focus on for future development.
- Topic:
- Development, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Trade, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
14. Americans Favor US-China Trade, Split Over Tariffs
- Author:
- Craig Kafura
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Over the past 18 months, the United States and China have engaged in a steady escalation of tariffs. Beginning with steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in March 2018, the trade conflict has expanded to cover hundreds of billions of dollars in bilateral trade. Recent rounds of negotiations have made no new progress and have led to both sides escalating further. The most recent US tariffs on Chinese imports went into effect on September 1, covering $112 billion of goods. Beijing has countered with retaliatory tariffs and has halted all agricultural purchases from the United States, a move targeted at already-struggling US farmers. While Americans broadly support engaging in trade with China, they are split along partisan lines on how to engage in that trade. Republicans support raising tariffs on Chinese imports and believe it will help the US economy in the long run, while Democrats oppose doing so and believe it will be harmful.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Tariffs, and Trade Wars
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
15. The basis for strong US-European relations endures: Continuity in institutions and interests
- Author:
- Christopher Kojm
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- President Donald Trump’s words and actions are disrupting US-European relations. Yet the structural basis for strong transatlantic ties endures. Key institutions and forces involved in the making of US foreign policy exhibit more continuity than change with respect to transatlantic relations. Congress strongly supports NATO. It agrees with the President on the need for greater burden-sharing, yet opposes the President’s harsh and gratuitous attacks on the Alliance. Executive Branch Departments, especially the Department of Defence, have longstanding institutional ties with European counterparts. High-level meetings, defence cooperation agreements, military exercises, and relationship-building continue without interruption. The US business community strongly opposes tariffs, and has been able to blunt the Administration’s further imposition of tariffs on European partners. Public opinion still strongly supports transatlantic defence and trade relations, even as partisan differences grow.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Tariffs, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, North Atlantic, and North America
16. Economic Dominance, Financial Technology, and the Future of U.S. Economic Coercion
- Author:
- Peter Harrell and Elizabeth Rosenberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security
- Abstract:
- Coercive economic measures, such as sanctions, investment restrictions, trade controls, and tariffs, have become an increasingly important tool of U.S. foreign policy in recent years. Recent years have witnessed a strengthening of U.S. coercive economic measures, which are likely to remain powerful in the near and medium term. Over the longer term, purely commercial factors are likely to support continued U.S. coercive economic power. However, choices by both U.S. policymakers and foreign governments will be the primary determinant of whether coercive economic measures remain powerful tools of U.S. foreign policy over the longer term. Shifts in the nature of U.S. coercive economic power could prompt some shifts in the balance and nature of the type of coercive economic measures the United States deploys.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Science and Technology, Tariffs, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
17. A Quantitative Trade Model with Unemployment
- Author:
- Kyu Yub Lee
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Over the last decade, quantifying the welfare effects from tariff changes has become one of the main challenges among international trade economists. There are a number of quantitative trade models with micro-foundations which emphasize demand-side (Anderson and Van Wincoop 2003), supply-side (Eaton and Kortum 2002), Bertrand competition (Bernard et al. 2003), extensive and intensive margin (Chaney 2008), etc, and conclude that trade liberalization with tariff reductions leads an economy to reach a higher level of welfare compared to pre-liberalization (Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare 2014). While elegant, these models inducing gravity equations share the common assumption, a perfect labor market. Quantitative trade models with full-employment developed so far have not taken account of labor market frictions when evaluating the welfare effects from tariff changes. This paper aims to fill the gap in the trade literature by explicitly considering labor market frictions. I employ search-and-matching to a multi-country and multi-sector Ricardian model with input-output linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity, in order to quantify the welfare effects from tariff changes. The paper shows that labor market frictions can be a source of comparative advantage in the sense that better labor market conditions contribute to lower cost in production. Labor market frictions play a critical role in determining the probability of exporting goods to trading partners, and interact with bilateral trade share, price, expenditures, etc. Unemployment and changes in unemployment rates due to tariff reductions contribute welfare changes across countries, implying that welfare effects based on quantitative trade models with full-employment are likely to be biased. I confirm the biased welfare effects by revisiting Caliendo and Parro (2015), who conduct an analysis of the welfare effects from the NAFTA from 1993 to 2005. I show that the welfare gap between theirs and mine has a positive correlation with changes in observed unemployment rates across countries. With the constructed model, I further conduct counterfactual exercises by asking what would happen if China’s tariffs remain unchanged from 2006 to 2015. It turns out that there are mild welfare effects to trading partners in the world trading system.
- Topic:
- Tariffs, Economic Policy, Trade, Unemployment, and Welfare
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
18. Trading the Global Future Part III: Bad Consequences
- Author:
- Dan Steinbock
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration’s ‘America First’ policies come at a critical time in the global economy. These bad policies will have adverse consequences in international trade. In the absence of countervailing forces, they could unsettle the post-2008 global recovery and undermine postwar globalization.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Tariffs
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
19. China Responds to Trade Tensions Responsibly
- Author:
- Su Qingyi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- In March 2018, the United States slapped tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum in the name of national security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Then, the Office of the United States Trade Representative released a report on the investigation of China under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, claiming China’s acts, policies, and practices regarding technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation are “unreasonable and discriminatory, and burden U.S. commerce.” In early April, it issued a list of products imported from China subject to additional tariffs of 25 percent totaling US $50 billion. In June, Donald Trump approved the tariff imposition on US $50 billion worth of Chinese goods, officially starting from Chinese exports worth US $34 billion on July 6. The remaining US $16 billion was to be imposed later. In July, the U.S. issued another trade barrier of 10 percent tariff on imports from China with a value of US $200 billion. On August 1, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the barriers were suggested by President Trump, who ordered to increase the amount to 25 percent.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
20. China can overcome a trade war
- Author:
- Su Qingyi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- The tariff war the United States has launched against China shows no sign of abating, as the Donald Trump administration made good its threat to impose 25 percent tariff on another $16 billion worth of Chinese imports on Thursday. Instead, since the US has threatened to slap tariffs on $500 billion worth of Chinese goods, or on almost all Chinese imports, the trade conflict seems set to intensify. Thanks to its national strength and moral righteousness, as well as its objective assessment that the US' tariff war will have a limited impact on the Chinese economy, China is confident and capable of safeguarding the core interests of the country and its people. The trade dispute, however, will affect on three areas－foreign trade, investment (including overseas investment) and the macro-economy. But the impact is likely to be limited and manageable.
- Topic:
- Economy, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
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