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41. Africa’s Thorny Horn

Author:
Giovanni Carbone, Michele D'Alessandro, Zemalak A. Ayele, Giovanni Putoto, David Styan, Michael Woldemariam, Afyare A. Elmi, Abdi M. Hersi, Aleksi Ylönen, Alexander Meckelburg, and Camillo Casola
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In the context of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Horn of Africa remains one of the most dynamic and intriguing regions on the African continent. The political processes currently under way – including the recent conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region – have deep implications that reflect on the domestic equilibria within the area’s core states - Ethiopia itself, but also Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti – as well as on the relations among them. The nature and extent of involvement by external, non-African players is bound to be affected too. How is the Horn of Africa changing, following the leadership transition in Ethiopia? What are the main political and security prospects for the region and for the states belonging to it? And how will ongoing dynamics impact on European political strategies?
Topic:
Hegemony, Geopolitics, State Building, Domestic Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, and Horn of Africa

42. Healing the Wounds of the Past

Author:
Darlington Tshuma
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article is an attempt to contextualise Zimbabwe’s complex history of political violence and conflict while providing an analysis of reconciliation, peacebuilding and nation-building attempts since 1980. The article contends that prospects for successful peacebuilding and post-conflict reconstruction in any society hinge on the development of a specific set of skills to attend to the various challenges and opportunities presented by conflict and violence. In Zimbabwe, the National Peace and Reconciliation Commission (NPRC) represents a first major attempt in this regard. The NPRC is an attempt to resolve past violent conflicts while building local capacities to guarantee a peaceful and harmonious future for all. In Zimbabwe, while conflicts today find expression in different interconnected layers, ranging from a household level (domestic violence) to broader social-level land conflicts, the majority of conflicts remain deeply rooted in disputes over national power (politics) and socio-economic hardships. In attempting to provide analyses of the crises in Zimbabwe, this author remains aware that the crises are complex and multidimensional. Because of this limitation, this article only explores issues that have a bearing on the healing, reconciliation and nation-building process in Zimbabwe.
Topic:
Conflict, Peace, State Building, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

43. Threat of Secession

Author:
Hussain Taofik Oyewo
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
There is a considerable popular feeling of exclusion and perceived sense of injustice among various units of the Nigerian federation – a situation that has led to alienation, suspicion and apprehension among various groups in the country. Over time, different groups have pursued separatist ambitions in Nigeria – some examples are Ogoni nationalism and the Boko Haram insurgency. This article focuses on Nigeria’s unresolved ethnic tensions and suspicions of domination that led to the declaration of the state of Biafra, leading to the Nigerian civil war between 1967 and 1970, and the subsequent persistent agitation for an independent state of Biafra since the end of the war.
Topic:
Minorities, Ethnicity, Discrimination, State Building, and Secession
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

44. President Zelensky’s first year leading Ukraine: A case of déjà vu

Author:
Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
During his first year as President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky prioritized presidential power-building. In order to do so, he relied heavily on the old system and established practices, such as “hands-on” management and the personalization of state agencies. Institution-building was replaced by the targeted fine-tuning of the dominant system. Some important reforms launched by the government in autumn 2019 were later stalled and reversed. As before, the adoption and implementation of comprehensive reforms will largely depend on Western pressure and conditionality. The major problem is that there are multiple centres of power in the country and the president’s actions only produce an illusion of control, while in reality the system is fragile and unstable. During the rest of his presidency, Volodymyr Zelensky will increasingly depend on oligarchs and govern through situational alliances. In exchange for their support, he may have to acquiesce to their continued dominance over the economy and the restoration of their influence in politics. Instability will intensify as his personal popularity wanes and economic and political crises deepen.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Leadership, Institutions, State Building, Transition, and Elites
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

45. Building on Quicksand: Pursuing Transitional Justice in Times of Great Upheaval

Author:
Nadim Houry
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Anyone who cares about transitional justice in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) faces a daunting task. How to address the past when the present is in great upheaval? How to tackle yesterday’s wars and violations when new ones—often worse—are occurring today? Practitioners have long recognized that transitional justice is a slow and nonlinear process that requires patience and long-term planning. Setbacks are expected along the way but, in the end, there is the promise or assumption that “if you keep at it, you will eventually get results.” But is this assumption still valid in the MENA region? Are existing transitional justice efforts succeeding in laying the groundwork for a better future, or are they being washed away by new rounds of violence and repression? The issue is both conceptual and pragmatic. On one level, there is the question of whether a society can start addressing the traumas of the past while simultaneously dealing with new traumas, often caused by new actors. On another level, there is the question of what sort of transitional justice processes and institutions can deal with the past, while also being able to adapt to an ever-shifting present. The challenges are immense and there are no easy answers. Here, I highlight the need for further research on transitional justice processes in the MENA region, with a focus on recent years of upheaval. Two fundamental questions emerge: (i) how to reconcile past and current claims; and (ii) how to accommodate ever-changing sources of legitimacy, given the increasing hollowness of state structures in the region.
Topic:
International Law, Transitional Justice, State Building, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

46. Sudan: Have the Juba and Addis Ababa Agreements Untangled the Dichotomy between Religion and the State?

Author:
Abdelkhalig Shaib
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The place of religion in Sudan’s state has divided the country since its independence. In September, the transitional government agreed to separate religion and state, in an attempt to end the decades-long contention. Against the backdrop of past constitutional failures to adequately recognize and address Sudan’s diversity, this paper examines the implications of the recent Juba and Addis Ababa agreements in the country’s efforts to build a civil democratic state and the challenges ahead.
Topic:
Religion, Democracy, State, State Building, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

47. Decentralisation in Iraq: Process, Progress & a New Tailor-Made Model

Author:
Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The Iraqi state has become increasingly fragile for decades and is plagued with instability, social conflicts and wars. Many drivers have contributed to the country’s intractable fragility, one of which relates to its highly centralised and poorly institutionalised governing system, which has failed to manage centre-periphery tensions and integrate local communities into the country’s polities. Rebuilding Iraq’s governance along the lines of its democratic Constitution, which adopts decentralisation at its core, will be a critical step toward stabilisation, reconstruction, and socioeconomic recovery. The Iraqi Council of Representatives adopted two transformative legislations in 2008, namely Law No. 21 of the Governorate not Incorporated into a Region, and Law No. 36 of the Provincial, District and Subdistrict Council elections. These put Iraq on a decentralisation pathway that is still evolving. However, after more than a decade of experimentation, the decentralisation process has failed to tackle the on-going crises of legitimacy and a lack of trust in government. It has failed to address problems of rampant corruption, inefficiency and an inability to improve the lives of citizens. It is, therefore, paramount to review the existing system and propose ways forward, hence this timely report. Here, Nineveh is used as a representative governorate to review the challenges facing the decentralisation process and explore possible models that can be piloted.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Governance, Fragile States, State Building, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

48. Albania: The Longest Post Communist Transition Story

Author:
Alba Cela and Ledion Krisafi
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
By the time Albania, alongside the Republic of North Macedonia, received the green light to proceed with accession negotiations, the enthusiasm for the decision was dampened by the growing coronavirus crisis. Albania had spent all its celebration reserves beforehand having expected a positive decision repeatedly in 2018 and then 2019. Having put in place an ambitious, comprehensive and even disruptive justice reform the country believed to have deserved the integration milestone earlier and blamed delays on the skepticism of certain member states. However, this does not tell the full story. Albania's track record has been blemished by a tagin conflict between political parties deeply rooted in old enmities of transition.
Topic:
Communism, State Building, Political Parties, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, Albania, and North Macedonia

49. Security Assistance in the Middle East: A Three-Dimensional Chessboard

Author:
Robert Springborg, F.C. "Pink" Williams, and John Zavage
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The United States, Russia, and Iran have chosen markedly different approaches to security assistance in the Middle East, with dramatic implications for statebuilding and stability. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the world’s testing ground for the effectiveness of security assistance provided by global and regional powers. That security assistance has contributed to the intensity and frequency of proxy wars—such as those under way or recently wound down in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq—and to the militarization of state and substate actors in the MENA region. Security assistance is at the core of struggles for military, strategic, ideological, and even economic preeminence in the Middle East. Yet despite the broad and growing importance of security assistance for the region and for competition within it between global and regional actors, security assistance has been the subject of relatively little comparative analysis. Efforts to assess relationships between the strategic objectives and operational methods of security assistance providers and their relative impacts on recipients are similarly rare.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, Political stability, and State Building
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

50. How Tunisia’s En-Nahda crafts Islamist politics: From programmatic failure to neo-Islamist framing

Author:
Wolfgang Mühlberger
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
En-Nahda’s participation in Tunisia’s post-revolutionary politics triggered an adaptive process, refecting a transition from theoretical elaborations to political practice. Switching from clandestine regime opposition to engagement in an emerging pluralistic system also puts to the test the grand narrative that defnes the movement’s rationale and intends to captivate the party’s potential constituency. After fve years in the game, assuming a tainted Islamist label and somehow acknowl- edging programmatic failure, the party’s leadership proposed a neo-Islamist framing, ‘Muslim democracy’, in 2016. Tis semantic operation aims to fuse two schools of thought, a confessional and a political one, with historically distinct governance systems and polit- ical cultures. Hence, despite this twist in rhetoric, a major challenge for En-Nahda remains the rec- onciliation of its utilitarian take on democratic procedures with its deep-rooted reference to Islamic principles. Yet while continuing to stress its readiness for concessions, suppos- edly in order to save Tunisia’s democratic transition, En-Nahda’s political programme, practice and narrative remain fawed, fuid and unconvincing respectively, eroding its credibility and incrementally reducing its mobilisation capacity.
Topic:
Islam, Religion, Democracy, Leadership, and State Building
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia