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3281. Energy Security and Energy Union Perspectives for Azerbaijan

Author:
Rovshan Jamalov and Tahmasib Alizada
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Azerbaijan is a reliable partner in the energy security issue for the oil importer countries. Country has sufficiently traditional energy resources which already invested on this energy sector. However, country geographical location gives opportunity in order to use the alternative and renewable energy resources which helps to keep the balance of the utilization of energy resources. The energy security is also main important issue for the country. Therefore, country broaden the relation with the EU in the context of EU energy security and EaP partnership countries.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, European Union, Renewable Energy, and Geography
Political Geography:
Europe, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

3282. Defence and India’s private sector

Author:
Sameer Patil
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pro-actively pursued India’s agenda of modernising and indigenising its defence sector by clearing several long-pending demands of the Indian military for equipment. India’s rapidly-obsolescing military hardware has made this push imperative—the ageing of the hardware has been prominently highlighted by a string of naval accidents in the last two years and the rapidly depleting strength of the air force squadron, with the de-induction of old aircraft and delays in inducting replacements. Externally, raging border disputes with China and Pakistan, and the growing presence of the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean region, continue to be threats that call for an updating of the Indian defence sector.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Private Sector, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, and India

3283. nternational Relations Theory and a Changing Middle East

Author:
Pinar Bilgin, Sarah Bush, F. Gregory III Gausse, Zeynep N. Kaya, and Matteo Legrenzi
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The story of the Arab uprisings of 2010-11 has typically been told as a series of loosely related national stories, happening simultaneously but whose successes and failures were essentially determined by internal factors. Over the last few years, political scientists have made great progress evaluating the success or failure of each country’s uprising in terms of country-specific qualities such as types of domestic institutions, the nature of opposition movements, the wise or poor decisions made by leaders and access to oil revenues. The comparative politics literature on the uprisings has demonstrated real theoretical progress, sophisticated empirical analysis and useful—if too often ignored—policy advice. This comparative politics approach to the uprisings has always been problematic, though. The Arab uprisings began in transnational diffusion and ended in transnational repression and regional proxy wars. It is remarkably difficult to accurately explain the course of events in Egypt, Yemen or Libya without reference to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar or Iran. However, with but a few notable exceptions, the academic literature on the uprisings has been dominated by comparative analysis and country case studies, with international factors included as one among several variables, if at all. This seems odd. Why has there not been an efflorescence of international relations scholarship comparable to the impressive outpouring of comparative politics scholarship on the Arab uprisings? And if there were, what would it look like? To begin rectifying this gap, the Project on Middle East Political Science teamed up with Danish scholar Morten Valbjørn of Aarhus University to bring together nearly two-dozen American, European and Arab international relations scholars in May. The result of the workshop was an astonishingly rich set of essays from a wide range of theoretical perspectives, which are now available for free download here as a special issue in the POMEPS Studies series.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Arab Spring, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

3284. The Arab Thermidor: The Resurgence of the Security State

Author:
Eva Bellin, Raymond Hinnebusch, Steven Heydemann, Ellis Goldberg, and Pete W. Moore
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
It is sometimes hard to remember that the Arab uprisings of 2010-11 promised the possibility of meaningful political change. The unprecedented outburst of popular mobilization overthrew some regimes and unsettled most of the others. Those hopes have long since come crashing down. Egypt’s transition ended in a military coup, bloody repression, and a neo-authoritarianism legitimated through xenophobic populism. Tunisia’s survived, barely. Libya, Yemen, and Syria have suffered near-complete political collapse, polarization, and civil war. Almost every regime has become more intolerant and more repressive. Violent, extremist Islamist movements such as the Islamic State group have surged in this chaotic atmosphere. How should we understand the authoritarian resurgence in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings? In October 2014, Toby Dodge and I jointly convened a POMEPS-London School of Economics workshop to dig more deeply into the causes, mechanisms, and drivers of what he called “The Arab Thermidor.” More than a dozen scholars looked deeply at specific sectors such as the military, police and intelligence services, different countries, and the broader regional environment. Some of the papers produced for that workshop have been published on the Monkey Cage, and all of them have today been released as POMEPS Studies 11 The Arab Thermidor: The Resurgence of the Security State, available as a free downloadable PDF. The papers in this collection offer a sharp, comprehensive, and acute look at the resurgence and persistence of the Arab authoritarian state.
Topic:
Security, Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

3285. New Energy Strategy of Ukraine Until 2020: Security, Energy Efficiency, Competition

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The proposed “New Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2020: Security, Energy Efficiency, Competition” (hereinafter referred to as NES 2020) is a comprehensive document for reforming the energy complex of Ukraine for the period until 2020. At the same time, NES 2020 defines, above all, the goals and algorithms for energy sector development, and thus will also remain relevant for creating further long-term strategies and sectoral programmes. Target figures mentioned in the document only demonstrate the general trajectory of energy resources demand and offer development. These figures are to have a more expanded and detailed presentation in the developed action plan of the CMU for implementation of NES 2020. Usually, a strategy, being a document that is the result of target-based programme planning and forecasting in a certain sphere of activity, covers a longer period of time – 10-20 years. However, serious challenges currently faced by Ukraine as a state, given the fact of external aggression and the burden of unresolved issues accumulated during the period of independence with reforming of the national energy complex, require a document with such status for a shorter period of time. The NES 2020 stipulates that by the end of its implementation term the restructuring of the energy complex of Ukraine will be complete, including its transition to modern market models of operation, and that the main safety and energy efficiency targets will be achieved. After 2020, Ukrainian energy sector will move on to a new level of its development – complete integration with the EU energy sector and innovative rebuilding. Thus, implementation of tasks in the energy sector after 2020, will require rather different approaches than those defined by NES 2020, which means – development of a new strategic document. During the development of NES 2020, proposals were considered regarding the content of the suggested document from such respected international organisations, as the International Energy Agency, Energy Community Secretariat, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, World Bank, Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, etc. At the final stage of public consultations regarding NES 2020 draft, an expert discussion was organised, which involved representatives of leading scientific research institutions, companies working in the field, international organisations and NGOs, domestic and foreign experts, media, and based on results of which, the final draft of NES 2020 was created. This document was developed by the Razumkov Centre and other leading nongovernmental, public organisations and scientific research institutions of Ukraine, with support of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Committee on Fuel and Energy Complex, Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Safety. Therefore, the draft of NES 2020 can be rightfully viewed as a result of joint effort of Ukraine’s expert community and reputable international institutions.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Politics, Strategic Competition, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

3286. Prospects of Ukrainian-Russian Relations

Author:
Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The “hybrid” war of Russia against Ukraine has continued since February 2014. To date, the multiple efforts of international diplomacy, unfortunately, have not resulted either in settlement or even in a “freeze” of the situation in eastern Ukraine. The previous Minsk Agreements adopted in September 2014 (Minsk Protocol and Minsk Memorandum) were disrupted and Russian aggression in Donbas continued. On 12 February 2015, the presidents of Ukraine, France, Germany, and Russia agreed on a new document, “Package of Measures for Implementation of the Minsk Agreements”, which envisaged conflict settlement by the end of 2015. However, implementation of these measures was postponed to 2016 and, given the course of events, has actually become a process which is difficult to forecast and which is indefinite in time.1 It should be noted that on the one hand, the situation in eastern Ukraine has not undergone significant changes for the better – hostilities are ongoing. There are persistent fundamental differences in the positions of the two sides, Ukraine and Russia, on conflict resolution. (In particular, implementation of the Minsk Agreements in line with the Russian scenario threatens to destabilise the internal situation in Ukraine and destroy its statehood.) On the other hand, the international situation is rapidly changing; we see further escalation of international terrorism (the terrorist attacks in Paris), the “migration crisis” in the EU, Russia’s military intervention in Syria, and the gaining momentum of the acute conflict of Moscow and Ankara. This dulls the perception of events in Donbas on the part of the international community, renders these events a somewhat “background” nature in the West, and urges attempts to “freeze” the situation there at any cost, including at the expense of Ukraine’s own interests. Meanwhile, Russia proceeds with military expansion in Donbas, aimed at the destruction of Ukrainian statehood, and now there is no reason to expect a change for the better in the Kremlin’s policy. Thus, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (which has a regional and global dimension) acquires a long-term nature with recurrent escalation and unpredictable consequences. Russian aggression – the annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine – has entailed profound changes in bilateral relations: (а) the legal framework of Kyiv and Moscow relations has been destroyed; (b) institutional mechanisms of state-to-state relations have been destroyed; (c) contacts at the highest level have become impossible, political and diplomatic relations have become confrontational; (d) Ukraine has suffered huge human, economic, and territorial losses; (e) an unprecedented curtailment of economic cooperation has taken place; (f) deep alienation between the peoples of Ukraine and Russia has emerged. The previous official ideology of “strategic partnership”, “fraternal peoples”, and “neighbourliness”, embedded in many joint agreements, has lost its sense.2 A new political-ideological reality has emerged in the relations between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, a new assessment and review of the nature, ideology, and general institutional system of relations with Russia in key areas (politics, security, economy, energy, humanitarian sphere, etc.) is required, given that the main threat to Ukrainian statehood is the current government in place in the Russian Federation. There is a need to design a new conceptual model of coexistence with Putin’s Russia, which would reflect current realities and prospects of bilateral relations and would take into account the position of Western partner countries and international organisations. However, it is important to keep in mind at least two things. First, one should clearly distinguish the current Putin’s regime and the country of Russia as it is and its society. Second, in rebuffing Russian aggression, a strategic goal should be seen – to restore confidence and interest of the societies of both countries in peaceful coexistence and respect the right of each state to determine the state system in the country and its civilisation development vector.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

3287. What the Women Say: Resisting the New Conservatism: Women’s campaigns for rights, peace and participation in Turkey

Author:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
For nearly a century, Turkey has been a model of a modern secular Islamic nation. As a member of the G-20 and NATO, a candidate for the European Union, and boasting the world’s 16th largest economy, Turkey’s influence in regional and international security and economics has steadily grown. Yet modern Turkey is at risk from a rising conservatism, willing to trade economic growth for human rights advances. This brief examines the current challenges of women’s and civil society groups in Turkey, highlighting effective initiatives and advocacy strategies. Turkey offers significant lessons for other countries similarly struggling to maintain the momentum of democratic reform in the context of growing conservatism. The stakes are higher than ever for international actors, Turkish civil society, and women’s rights groups to strategize and work together effectively.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Civil Society, Economics, Women, Peace, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

3288. Kosovo Security Barometer Special Edition Public Perceptions on Kosovo’s Foreign Policy and Political Dialogue with Serbia

Author:
Donika Emini
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The survey was carried out in the second half of October 2014, through face-to-face interviews conducted around Kosovo. The national sample from which the research was drawn featured 1,101 households, following a representative sample of the population above 18 years old in Kosovo. The ethnic breakdown of the interviewed respondents used for the purposes of this edition of the KSB was: 87.92 percent K-Albanian, 9.08 percent K-Serbian, and 3 percent others (Bosnian 1.0 percent, Turks 1.0 percent, and RAE 1.0 percent). Perceptions presented in this report are a summary of information gathered from respondents and it only demonstrates how people perceive these institutions. Hence, this report does not represent a conclusive assessment of the quality of the work of the institutions subject to this study.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Survey, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

3289. Kosovo Security Barometer Special Edition on Citizens Perceptions on Personal Data Protection

Author:
Sofije Kryeziu
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This edition of the KSB covers three main issues related to privacy and data protection: - Awareness on the Rights on Privacy and Personal Data Protection - Awareness regarding the National Agency for Personal Data Protection - Kosovo citizens’ concerns regarding the potential misuse of personal data
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Public Opinion, Privacy, Survey, and Data
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

3290. Destination NATO: Kosovo’s Alternatives towards NATO Membership

Author:
Plator Avdiu
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The report addresses key challenges and existing complex relations between the Kosovo institutions and NATO. KCSS’ research has highlighted that the membership process of Kosovo towards NATO is challenged by external and internal impediments. Kosovo is the only country in the region of the Western Balkans left out of the NATO enlargement process. Furthermore, the country has not established any official or contractual cooperation and relations with NATO. This is due to non-recognition of Kosovo by four NATO member countries, NATO’s neutral stance towards the state of Kosovo since its Declaration of Independence on 17 February 2008 as well as NATO’s commitment that its peacekeeping mission in Kosovo (KFOR) to operate within the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244. On the other hand, until recently neither the Kosovo institutions have not demonstrated readiness and practical commitment with respect to NATO integration. From 2008 to 2014, Kosovo has not indicated a firm political will that demands the commencement of official cooperation with NATO. The Kosovo policymakers have shown only declarative commitments as to Euro-Atlantic integration, whereas membership of Kosovo in NATO only became a priority for the Kosovo institutions in 2014. Additionally, Kosovo should undertake the necessary reforms related to establishing better cooperation and coordination of all institutions involved in NATO’s integration process.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Treaties and Agreements, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans