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311. The Road to a Reinvigorated North American Partnership

Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This special report is prepared for the North American Forum (NAF). In 2015, CIGI’s Global Security & Politics Program became the Secretariat for the Canadian leadership within the NAF. CIGI will be undertaking a program of research to support the Canadian contribution to the NAF in cooperation with our American and Mexican partners. In the coming months, CIGI will publish additional reports to support the work of the NAF. Since the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, trade, investment and migration flows among Canada, Mexico and the United States have helped turn North America into one of the most dynamic and prosperous trade blocs on the planet. With a new government in Ottawa, it is an ideal time for Canada to make a stronger, deeper relationship with Mexico a crucial plank of a plan to secure a prosperous future for North America. Better relations between Mexico and Canada not only means more opportunities to take advantage of the two countries’ economic and social complementarities, it also gives the two countries the opportunity to closely work together to get the United States on board with an ambitious North American agenda to secure the continent’s economic future.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States

312. Central Asia: Not in Our Backyard, Not a Hot Spot, Strategically Important

Author:
Richard E. Hoagland
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Central Asia is strategically important to the West because of its neighbors, but not immediately, because it is not a “hot spot” on the world stage. Western governments are ambivalent about the region because of its poor record on human rights and governance. It presents the classic choice: ideology or realpolitik. But Western policy in Central Asia does not have to be one or the other — it can be both. Western nations can engage strongly to support humanist values in Central Asia through quiet and appropriate behind-the-scenes work with government officials who understand and have similar concerns — and they most certainly do exist and can produce results. Western governments need to engage in Central Asia precisely to ensure that it does not become a hot spot and instead becomes, over time, ever more firmly embedded in the community of responsible nations. Strategic engagement by the West is essential, and it will pay off.
Topic:
Human Rights, Human Welfare, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Central Asia

313. EU Pressure Insufficient to Gain U.S. Visa Waiver for Poles

Author:
Marek Wasinski
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In a communication of 12 April, the European Commission assessed the potential political and economic consequences of suspending visa exemption for U.S. citizens. Lacking pressure from individual EU Member States, the Commission discouraged such a move and gave the EU Council and European Parliament three months to take an official position. It seems almost certain that the measure of applying pressure on a non-EU country will not be used to help Poland and four other Member States obtain visa-free travel to the United States or other countries with a similar restriction. However, if current trends continue, Poland should join the U.S. Visa Waiver Programme in five years.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, European Union, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

314. Brazil’s Perception of the Visegrad Group: Not a Strategic but a Prospective Partnership

Author:
Carolina Salgado and Marek Wasinski
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Visegrad Group is still a new label among policy makers as well as public and private investors, scholars and media in Brazil. However, since their accession to the EU in 2004, and the financial crisis that started in 2008, the four Central European countries in this group have started to look beyond Europe in order to formulate their economic and political agenda, aiming to boost partnerships, for example among the biggest South American countries such as Brazil. V4 and Brazil should build momentum to deepen cooperation in the most promising prospective areas such as trade, military, tourism and education.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Brazil

315. The Global Outlook of the Top Five Candidates in the U.S. Presidential Election

Author:
Cordella Buchanan Ponczek
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Traditionally, there is a partisan split on foreign policy in the United States: Republican candidates and voters worry more about terrorism, defense and national security than Democratic candidates and voters, thereby putting more stock in foreign policy issues, which manifests itself in the aggressiveness—of lack thereof—of each party’s foreign policy platform. But the candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election can be categorised by more than just party: a line can also be drawn between conventional candidates—Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, Republicans—and unconventional candidates—Donald Trump, a Republican, and Bernie Sanders, a Democrat. Should a conventional candidate be elected president, U.S. foreign policy would be based on predictable adaptation to the changing international environment. An unconventional candidate, however, would be a wild card, whose actions would be difficult to predict.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
United States

316. How ASEAN’s Transformation Can Play Out Well for Europe

Author:
Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The transformation of ASEAN into an economic community is a significant step in the organisation’s integration process. The project, formally launched at the beginning of 2016, aims at creation of a single market of more than 620 million people, loosens the flow of goods, services and investment, which should underpin regional economic growth and catch the attention of foreign businesses. However, obstacles to economic cooperation remain, such as limitations on the movement of labour or capital, which shows that the integration process is not yet complete. The EU, which can benefit from a well-functioning market in this region, should share its own experience to support the ASEAN integration process.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Politics, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Europe

317. Transnistria Zig-zagging towards a DCFTA

Author:
Stanislav Secrieru
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although Transnistria, in exchange for meeting certain conditions, was allowed to benefit from the free trade agreement that Moldova signed with the EU, there are plenty of obstacles which could derail the deal. The business community in the breakaway republic is eager to enjoy the fruits of the DCFTA but is reluctant to shoulder the price of necessary reforms, the outgoing leader of the separatist enclave could undermine the agreement for electoral reasons, Russia might be tempted to test the EU’s resolve to defend its trade-related norms, and Moldova could erect bureaucratic barriers for producers from the left bank of the Nistru River. In the light of these many risks, the EU should persistently encourage all sides to stick to their commitments while averting disputes that would undermine enforcement of the DCFTA in Transnistria in a timely manner.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Elections, and European Union
Political Geography:
Moldova and Transnistria

318. The EU-Turkey Deal on Refugees: How to Move Forward

Author:
Pinar Elman
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since the EU-Turkey deal on refugees on 29 November, there has not been a significant reduction in the numbers of migrants crossing into the EU from Turkey. One of the main reasons is probably lack of trust between Turkey and European Commission in their readiness to keep promises. EU can break the impasse by offering Schengen visa liberalisation but at the same time should use the accession negotiations to exert greater pressure on Ankara.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Migration, Politics, Refugee Issues, and European Union
Political Geography:
Turkey

319. Ukraine: A Migration Corridor with Half-Closed Doors

Author:
Piotr Kościński
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
At a time when many European countries are strengthening border protection (including building walls), migrants will seek new avenues to Europe. In this context and of particular importance will be the policy of the authorities of Ukraine, which currently, and despite the still unstable situation in the country (war in the east and economic problems) could become the country of choice for migrants. Another problem for Kyiv may be internal migration. Both forms increase the risk of migration to EU countries such as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, which are neighbours of Ukraine. In this situation, additional EU assistance to the authorities in Kyiv will be necessary.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

320. Papua's Insecurity: State Failure in the Indonesian Periphery

Author:
Bobby Anderson
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
West Papua is the most violent area of Indonesia. Indonesian security forces battle the country's last active separatist insurgency there. The majority of Indonesia's political prisoners are Papuans, and support for independence is widespread. But military repression and indigenous resistance are only one part of a complex topography of insecurity in Papua: vigilantism, clan conflict, and other forms of horizontal violence produce more casualties than the vertical conflict that is often the exclusive focus of international accounts of contemporary Papua. Similarly, Papua's coerced incorporation into Indonesia in 1969 is not unique; it mirrors a pattern of long-term annexation found in other remote and highland areas of South and Southeast Asia. What distinguishes Papua is the near-total absence of the state in indigenous areas. This is the consequence of a morass of policy dysfunction over time that compounds the insecurity that ordinary Papuans face. The author illuminates the diverse and local sources of insecurity that indicate too little state as opposed to too much, challenges common perceptions of insecurity in Papua, and offers a prescription of policy initiatives. These include the reform of a violent and unaccountable security sector as a part of a broader reconciliation process and the urgent need for a comprehensive indigenous-centered development policy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia