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1. Pivotal States, Not Swing States

Author:
Mohammed Soliman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The United States, in particular, is grappling with the challenges posed by the emerging multipolar order and the need to secure a favorable position in this evolving global landscape. As part of this contemplation, there is a growing recognition of the significance of “swing states” like India, Türkiye, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia in shaping the outcome of the postCold War order and the broader global system. However, framing these consequential states as “swing states” in and of itself carries significant risk, as it implies that the only choice they have is a binary one: pick the U.S.-led West or the China and Russia axis. In reality, their strategic posture is far away from choosing one side over the other; at the same time, they are not behaving similarly to the Cold War-era non-aligned movement that was inherently anti-Western and leaned towards the Soviet-led block under the disguise of anti-colonialism solidarity. The appropriate strategic name for this growing list of countries in the present-day is “pivotal states,” and includes Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, chosen for their strategic geography, demography, and overall strength. Alongside these, there are other pivotal states with unique roles, such as Vietnam due to its position in the global supply chain and Egypt as a maritime bottleneck between the East and West. It is now widely acknowledged that international stability and the outcome of the U.S.-China neoCold War are influenced by factors beyond the behavior of Russia and China. But one crucial factor that remains underappreciated is that the behavior of pivotal states— which are determined to chart an independent course—will play vital roles in shaping the future of the international system. It is essential to recognize that these pivotal states inherently reject the bipolarity and “Cold War 2.0” framing that dominates the perspectives of, for example, Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Strategic Stability, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Russia, Indonesia, Turkey, India, Brazil, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

2. Illiberalism in International Relations

Author:
Alexander Dugin
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
There are two main schools in the theory of international relations --- realism and liberalism. Realists believe that human nature is inherently flawed (the legacy of Hobbes’s anthropological pessimism and, on an even deeper level, the legacy of the Christian idea of the Fall, or lapsus in Latin) and cannot be fundamentally corrected, which means that selfishness, predation, and violence are impossible to eradicate. This leads to the conclusion that man (who, according to Hobbes, is a wolf to another man) can only be restrained and regulated by means of a strong state. The state is inevitable and is the bearer of supreme sovereignty. At the same time, the predatory and egoistic nature of man is projected onto the state; therefore, the nationstate has its own interests. These interests take into account only their own state, while the will to violence and greed mean war is always a possibility. Realists believe that this has always been and always will be. International relations are therefore based only on a balance of power between wholly sovereign entities. No world order can exist in the long term; there is only chaos, which changes as some states weaken and others strengthen. At the same time, the term “chaos” in this theory is not bad in itself; it is merely a statement of the actual state of affairs, derived from taking the concept of sovereignty very seriously. If there are several truly sovereign powers, no supranational order can exist between them to which all would submit. Were such an order to exist, sovereignty would not be complete, in fact, it would not exist at all, and only this supranational authority itself would be sovereign. The school of realism has traditionally been very strong in the US, starting with its first founders: Hans Morgenthau and George Kennan in the US, and Edward Carr in the UK.
Topic:
International Relations, Realism, Multipolarity, Illiberalism, and Posthumanism
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

3. Hegel and the Theory of International Relations: General Paradigm of the Hegelian System

Author:
Alexander Dugin
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
LET us trace the influence of Hegel’s philosophy on the theory of international relations. It is most pronounced in Marxism and liberalism, while Hegel did not have much influence on realism. Let us examine this topic in more detail. Hegel articulated his views on politics most comprehensively in his Philosophy of Right.1 These views are based on his philosophy as a whole and represent an integral part of the entire system. Nevertheless, Hegel’s theory of the Political is presented in a rather original way and should be briefly described in order to identify his set of views on international politics. First of all, let us reiterate the general paradigm of Hegelian thought. It is based on the triadic principle “thesis – antithesis – synthesis” formulated by Johann Fichte.2 Fichte, for his part, derived it from the Neoplatonic tradition. Hegel did not, in fact, use the expression “thesis – antithesis – synthesis,” although the structure of his dialectics constantly revolves around a similar triadic scheme. According to Hegel, at the beginning of everything is the Idea-initself, or subjective Spirit. This is the main thesis. Next comes the moment of negation. Thus, the Spirit negates itself, alienates itself, and becomes Nature. In this moment of negation, the Spirit ceases to be in-itself and becomes for-the-Other. However, Nature and substance are not the first principle. It is just a moment of negation. Therefore, it is negative. Being negative, it indicates what it negates, being both its cancellation and, at the same time, its sublation or elevation (Aufhebung).3 This tension between two dialectical moments manifests as the Spirit that organizes and moves nature. A “potentiation” of layers of external existence takes place – from the physical and mechanical to the chemical and finally the organic. This process of unfolding of the spirit is the mind. In humans, the mind determines consciousness. Organic life in combination with human consciousness determines the third moment: the negation of the negation, or synthesis. In humans, the Spirit enters its final turn and moves toward the stage when the Idea can contemplate itself through humans, and the Spirit would become the Absolute Spirit – i.e., the Idea-for-itself.
Topic:
International Relations Theory, Philosophy, Empire, Multipolarity, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, Spirit, Idea, and Simulacra
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Arctic Geopolitics and Governance: An Indian Perspective

Author:
Anurag Bisen
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Capt. (IND) Anurag Bisen (Retd.), Senior Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation, explains that "India needs to step up its engagement to secure its increasing national interest in the Arctic" and "must also use its equities with all the Arctic states to facilitate collaboration, ensuring access to infrastructure, research areas, and data."
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Governance, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, India, North America, and Arctic

5. Brazil: Europe’s bridge to the global south

Author:
Carla Hobbs, José I. Torreblanca, and Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Europeans often misunderstand Brazil, either assuming it should be an eager supporter of all Western initiatives or believing it has already aligned with an anti-Western bloc led by China and Russia. Both assumptions are wrong. In reality, Brazil enjoys living in an “à la carte world”, positioning itself as a key middle power in a multipolar landscape, as evidenced by its membership of both the G20 and BRICS, alongside a dominating regional role. However, growing geopolitical competition between the US and China, along with an increasingly hostile Russia, is narrowing the space for Brazil’s non-alignment. Donald Trump’s re-election will only complicate the matter further. Brazil’s foreign policy, which historically exhibited a strong sense of continuity, is also increasingly influenced by domestic political polarisation. Europe has strong cards to position itself as Brazil’s much-needed partner for decades to come, especially given their shared interest in promoting global multilateral cooperation. But first it must respect Brazil’s own needs and aspirations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Global South, Multipolarity, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Europe, Brazil, and South America

6. Tunisia at the Crossroads: What Role for the United States in a Multipolar World?

Author:
Ghazi Ben Ahmed
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The United States, in recognizing the limits of its traditional “bloc-building” approach, faces the imperative to adapt to a multipolar reality. Embracing multipolarity as a fundamental principle of its foreign policy could pave the way for more flexible and effective international engagements. In today’s global landscape, the clear-cut divisions of the Cold War era have given way to a complex web of challenges and a multipolar world marked by competitive dynamics. This shift demands a nuanced approach from the United States, a move away from seeking dominance through large-scale coalitions against adversaries like China, since such strategies risk escalating tensions in a world that lacks the bipolar stability of the past. In this global reconfiguration, the role of “swing countries” like Tunisia gains unprecedented importance. In the midst of North Africa's political upheaval, countries like Tunisia stand at a critical crossroads, evaluating the merits of their longstanding alliances with Western nations against the enticing prospects of deepening relations with Eastern powers, particularly Russia and China. Against this backdrop, the United States has yet to articulate a definitive stance on engaging with nations such as Tunisia, where authoritarian tendencies are on the rise and anti-Western sentiments increasingly pronounced. This ambiguity raises important questions about Washington’s strategic approach in a region caught between historical affiliations and the lure of new partnerships.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Partnerships, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
North Africa, North America, Tunisia, and United States of America

7. Refocusing U.S. Public Diplomacy for a Multipolar World

Author:
Daniel F. Runde and Philip Arceneaux
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
China and Russia leverage technology, social media, and big data as tools to deceptively present information for hostile purposes. The United States must embrace a bold approach to public diplomacy to protect the ideas, values, electoral processes, and all the elements that make a free and open society possible and prevent it from becoming a casualty in the information war.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Data, Multipolarity, Public Diplomacy, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia

8. Economic Diplomacy in the Modern Geopolitical Context

Author:
Dmitry Birichevsky
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
ON SEPTEMBER 7, 1944, an economic department was formed at the People’s Commissariat for Foreign Affairs of the USSR, marking the beginning of modern Russian economic diplomacy. Over the course of its existence, the current Department of Economic Cooperation (DEC) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has undergone numerous transformations, gradually expanding its functions as the foreign economic agenda has expanded and become more complex. The DEC is celebrating its 80th anniversary amid radical geopolitical changes that will shape the configuration of the future world order. This is a period of significant challenges and great responsibility, as well as remarkable opportunities. The current historical phase is marked by significant turbulence in the international relations system, as the collective West’s claims to civilizational exceptionalism have proven untenable and Western regulatory mechanisms have failed to ensure sustainable development of the global economy. The Western powers are attempting to maintain their dominance by systematically weakening potential rivals and securing a generally subordinate position for countries of the World Majority.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Integration, Economic Diplomacy, Multipolarity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

9. Southeast Asia's Multipolar Future

Author:
Thomas Parks
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Thomas Parks discusses his new book "Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future: Averting a New Cold War," in which he argues that Southeast Asia is emerging as an open, autonomous region where small and mid-level powers can maintain their sovereignty and shape the regional order. The book further contends that Southeast Asian countries also have a remarkable capacity to manage asymmetrical relations and balance external powers, and predicts that the region's future will look entirely different from its Cold War past. Speaker: Thomas Parks, Vice President, the Asia Foundation Moderator: Ann Marie Murphy, Adjunct Senior Research Scholar; Professor and Director, Center for Foreign Policy Studies, School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University Hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and co-sponsored by the Asia Foundation and NYSEAN.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Multipolarity, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

10. La Unión Europea y la diplomacia del clima tras la agresión de Rusia a Ucrania

Author:
Teresa Fajardo del Castillo
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La guerra de agresión de Rusia en Ucrania ha tenido un gran impacto en las políticas de la Unión Europea, que ahora tratan de estar conectadas con el fin último de alcanzar la autonomía estratégica. En el caso de la diplomacia del clima de la UE, ésta deberá adoptar un nuevo enfoque geopolítico para hacer frente a las acciones de Rusia que es el tercer mayor responsable de emisiones de CO2 y ha hecho de la venta de gas y petróleo un arma más en su guerra en Ucrania. Su respuesta frente a Rusia, puede convertir a la UE en un modelo a seguir en la medida en que ha hecho de la necesidad virtud, convirtiendo la descarbonización de su economía en su imperativo estratégico y su principal baza para superar su dependencia del gas y del petróleo ruso.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Rivalry, Multipolarity, Strategic Autonomy, Russia-Ukraine War, Conference of the Parties (COP), and Climate Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe