51. Subsidizing Rebels, Taxing Atrocities: Saving Lives in Civil Wars
- Author:
- Andrew Kydd
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- The Syrian civil war has lasted over five years and has resulted in the deaths of over 400,000 civilians. The relatively restrained policy of the US toward Syria has sometimes been criticized as inadequate. Would a limited intervention motivated by humanitarian concerns have reduced the death toll at an acceptable cost? Limited intervention would affect the conflict primarily by strengthening the rebel side and raising the cost to the regime of attacking civilians. I show using a game theoretic model that fostering a balance of power between the government and the rebels would only lead the government to commit more atrocities and prolong the war. Raising the cost to the government of committing atrocities, however, could be beneficial under certain conditions. I then discuss four policy options considered during the Obama administration and assess their likely effects.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Syrian War, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocities, Game Theory, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and United States of America