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311. Russophrenia: western elites ignore their own citizens’ anger and blame Russia instead

Author:
Bryan MacDonald
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
At the start of 1917, rumours reached London that something was stirring in Petrograd (now St. Petersburg). As a result, the concerned Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, urgently dispatched Lord Milner, a diplomat of some repute, to the Russian capital. His Lordship visited the Tsar and spoke to ministers and members of the Duma, who informed him that enemies of the state were spreading groundless yarns. Sadly, being a creature of his class, Milner believed that only the elites mattered so he neglected to consult any of the general public. Thus, cocooned in his bubble, the peer reported to London that there was nothing the government could not handle and no need to expect no major changes. However, the same British travelling party also included Lloyd George’s private secretary Philip Kerr. A little more clued in, Kerr walked the streets and interviewed the plain folk. Armed with their predictions, he sent a telegram to Downing Street which asserted that Russia was on the verge of an unstoppable revolution. As it happens, the man who stepped out of the comfort zone was right because Nikolai II was shorn of his crown before the British delegation made it home. We know this story because many years later the ‘Welsh Wizard,’ Lloyd George, revealed the details to Ivan Maisky, the Soviet ambassador to London. And almost a hundred years later, it is a salutary lesson in the dangers of the establishment refusing to acknowledge ordinary people’s concerns when evaluating the causes of political upheaval.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

312. The Russian Gambit In Syria

Author:
Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Senior researcher and research coordinator Flemming Splidsboel Hansen explores Russia’s Syria agenda as part of a DIIS initiative to understand the geopolitics of nonwestern intervention in Syria. The Kremlin presents Russia’s political and military involvement in Syria as an unconditional success. Its overall aim of putting Russia firmly back on the geopolitical map has been met. It is now clear that the key to any negotiated settlement to the conflict in Syria lies in Moscow. Moreover, Russia now seems to be close to a position where it may dictate the composition of the future Syrian regime and, not least, decide whether Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will remain in the presidential palace or be forced into exile. The costs of the military operations have been acceptable to the Russian public. Defence observers estimate that the first year of military operations cost the Russian armed forces 65 bn Rubles (approximately one bn USD) and some 20 deaths (combat and non-combat). The financial costs may be partially offset by increased future weapons sales. There is a high probability, however, that Russia will find itself embroiled in a complicated sectarian conflict in Syria from which there is no easy exit. This would test Russian public support for the military involvement in Syria. Already now Russian media comments suggest some degree of frustration over the alleged lack of fighting capacity and will on part of the Syrian armed forces. The Russian public may want to see a plan for an orderly exit from Syria, and this puts pressure on the Kremlin to deliver. However, the Syrian regime may not be able to survive without Russian military support, and Russian policy-makers may therefore soon be facing difficult choices.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia and Syria

313. Israel’s conflicting interests in the Syrian War

Author:
Halle Malmvig
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Senior researcher Helle Malmvig explores Israels’s Syria agenda as part of a DIIS initiative to understand the geopolitics of nonwestern intervention in Syria. Israel’s activities in Syria have not drawn much attention due to Israel’s official policy of neutrality. Yet, over the last couple of years, Israel has stepped up its operations in Syria, targeting Iranian and Hezbollah assets and providing quiet assistance to the rebels.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Israel and Syria

314. Women in the Service of Security in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
Denis Hadžović, Mirela Hodović, and Benjamin Plevljak
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Exploring the role and status of women in Bosnia and Herzegovina is difficult, especially when it comes to the representation of women in the security sector institutions. Following the adoption of the Action Plan for the Implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on "Women, Peace and Security” progress has been made regarding the inclusion of a greater number of women in substantive roles in the security sector institutions in BiH. However, the analysis carried out reveals that the majority of these institutions still do not meet the minimum standard set for minority gender representation in government institutions (40%). Traditional views and prejudices about the understanding of gender roles are believed to still negatively affect the ability of many girls and women to build professional careers in areas such as defence and the police. Awareness and understanding of the importance of gender equality principles, both of individual security institutions and the entire system in general, should help address these barriers to entry and enable the greater acceptance of women in all fields of work.
Topic:
Gender Issues and International Security
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Herzegovina

315. OVERSIGHT ACTORS OF THE USE OF SPECIAL INVESTIGATIVE MEASURES

Author:
Aida Kržalić
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
From the security point of view, we can identify two main purposes as to why state authorities seek to use the secret data collection. The use of secret data collection may be to improve national security, prevent risks and threats to the security of citizens, national security, society, institutions, economic and other vital interests of society and the state from the various terrorist and extremist groups. Considering that this is a preventive activity, these actions are characteristics of intelligence and security agencies. It is important to emphasize that with these kind of activities, intelligence and security agencies are reaching "for collection of data and information on the activities, plans and intentions of various domestic and foreign, state and non-state actors, their processing and analysis are a very important segment that is often neglected in our country, which is the timely dissemination of information to the different users" (Petrovic 2015: 15).
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Herzegovina

316. A, B, C – Deployment of Civilian Capacities to International Peace Operations

Author:
Denis Hadžović
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
After the end of the Cold War traditional peacekeeping has become more complex and multidimensional, including not only military but also civilian, political and humanitarian tasks.1 The concept of peacekeeping thus broadened into a concept of peacebuilding, which dates back to the post-World War II reconstruction of Europe and Japan. The term ‘peacebuilding’ entered the international lexicons in the early 1990s when the then United Nations Secretary General Boutros- Boutros Ghali defined it in his 1992 Agen- da for Peace as “...Action to identify and support structures which will tend to strengthen and solidify peace in order to avoid a relapse into conflict“.
Topic:
Peace Studies, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Global Focus

317. Telecommunication Surveillance in Bosnia and Herzegovina – Policy brief

Author:
Sanjin Hamidičević
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
The constitutional construction of Bosnia and Herzegovina created multiple police agencies and four judicial systems, which means that fifteen police agencies and the Intelligence- Security Agency of BiH could file a demand for telecommunication surveillance from 68 different courts. Even though the legal framework has been equalized, this complexity together with parliamentary oversight on multiple levels opens up penetration points for the misuse of telecommunication surveillance. In order to prevent eventual misuse, this paper recommends to decrease the number of courts that can issue warrants, create a coordination system for telecommunication surveillance between the police agencies and define guidelines for parliamentary oversight.
Topic:
National Security, International Security, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Herzegovina

318. The Catch-22 in Nineveh: The Regional Security Complex Dynamics between Turkey and Iran

Author:
Tomáš Kaválek and Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
This paper argues that the future political stability of Nineveh depends on a two-level normalisation. A potential agreement between competing local actors, such as Baghdad and Erbil, is not the only necessary condition to stabilise the area. It also requires that Turkey and Iran decide to desecuritise Nineveh to the extent that it ceases to play the role of a buffer zone in the Middle East regional security complex. This argument is underpinned by the close examination of Turkey’s and Iran’s involvement together with their respective local allies in Nineveh in the post-2014 period. Developments referring to the cases of Bashiqa, Shingal, Tal Afar, as well as activities in favour or against Mosul leaders’ post-Islamic State (IS) vision illustrate that Nineveh’s securitisation has transcended Iraq’s borders. All in all, Turkey and Iran are vying for greater influence in Nineveh, or at least attempting to ensure that it will not become a satellite area of a competing power. Partly through their direct diplomatic and military engagement, but most importantly through their military and economic support to their local allies, the two regional powers pursue their security and diplomatic goals. At the same time, their involvement in the area has compounded the friction between local actors. Accordingly, the paper argues that in order to avoid greater polarisation in Nineveh and prepare the ground for constructive negotiations in the post-IS environment, Turkey and Iran should work on institutionalising their relationship beyond trade. Working together on issues of security between them, but also specifically in Nineveh, would improve trust and confidence in their relationship and help overcome the catch-22.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Iran and Turkey

319. Iran and its Opposition Kurdish Parties: The Need for Dialogue

Author:
Hawraman Ali
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Iran and its opposition Kurdish groups have been involved in intermittent armed conflict for decades. Considering the new political realities of the region and the domination of US politics by the Republicans after the recent election, Iran should engage in dialogue with its Kurdish opposition parties.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:
Iran and Kurdistan

320. A Transitioning Turkey: Out with the Old, in with the New?

Author:
Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Turkey is experiencing a crisis of orientation in its internal and external affairs as a result of a transition between a dying and an emerging vision. The end of the current transitional period will not necessarily mark the end of the country’s crisis, but most probably its entrenchment or deepening.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:
Turkey