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541. Brexit's Impact on the EU Institutions: Immediate implications and possibilities for reform

Author:
Teija Tiilikainen
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The direct implications of Brexit for the EU’s political system will be less significant than the indirect consequences, opening up possibilities for reform. The treaty rules on a qualified majority in the Council might need to be reconsidered due to Brexit, which will also lead to a major reshuffle of the EU’s critical political groups in the European parliament after the 2019 EP elections. The political pressure to consolidate the EMU in terms of strengthening its governance and its own fiscal capacity may grow as a part of the general reform process following on from Brexit. If the treaties are reopened, principled amendments to the institutions and decision-making of the common foreign and security policy as well as further steps within the common security and defence policy are very likely to occur. Any internal reform project shouldn’t compromise the unity and coherence of the EU any further, however, as it is currently highly exposed to both internal and external pressures.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Europe

542. Geopolitics: An Overview of Concepts and Empirical Examples from International Relations

Author:
Sören Scholvin
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Geopolitical research is frequently portrayed as a dead end. To some scholars it appears that in the 21st century geography is largely scenery, all but irrelevant to the most important issues of grand strategy. This working paper aims to revitalise geopolitics, reflecting both on the critique of the subject and the strengths that have characterised it for more than a century. It is argued that geographical conditions constitute a set of opportunities and constraints, a structure that is independent of agency. General patterns and long-term processes can be aptly explained by this structure but geopolitics is not a theory of state behaviour or foreign policy. Understanding specific phenomena that occur in international relations therefore requires taking into consideration non-geographical factors. Such a combination of geographical and non-geographical factors provides sound explanations, as several examples demonstrate: China’s projection of power into the Indian Ocean, South Africa’s approach to the political crisis in Zimbabwe in 2008, Iran’s maritime strategy and the poor integration of Colombia and South America. Given that geopolitics is about analysing international relations (or politics) for its geographical content, all those committed to geopolitics should concentrate on the three guiding questions: Do geographical conditions influence the observed outcome? If yes, do geographical conditions influence the observed outcome significantly? If yes, how, meaning in combination with which other factors do geographical conditions influence the observed outcome?
Topic:
International Relations, Political Theory, Geopolitics, and Political structure
Political Geography:
Global Focus

543. Turkey's political direction: Authoritarianism, liberal democracy or dissolution?

Author:
Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
After the re-run of the parliamentary election on 1 November 2015, it is certain that Turkey will again be ruled by the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) one-party government. Based on this premise, this study provides a future-oriented analysis in the form of three scenarios: 1) an authoritarian Islamist state; 2) a consolidated liberal democracy; and 3) the dissolution of the Turkish state. The study also identifies three major drivers: a) the AKP and the Islamic-conservative state project; b) regional instability; and c) the Kurdish question. Regarding scenario one, there are factors and processes present that decidedly increase the possibility of an authoritarian Islamist state in Turkey. On the other hand, the republican tradition of parliamentary democracy has at the same time proved to be remarkably resilient, suggesting that the course of events depicted in the positive scenario two still have a significant chance in the long run. Scenario three, the dissolution of the Turkish state, would create enormous instability in the EU’s immediate neighbourhood and exponentially increase unpredictable tendencies and conflicts. The internal and external forces that could produce such a dramatic outcome are still rather weak, but they do exist in an embryonic form. Thus, the republican modernization project attaching Turkey to the Western legacy of secular humanism should not be underestimated and may well prevail in the end. For the time being, however, it seems to be on the losing side as the political process is consolidating the Islamic-conservative version of Turkish nationalism. At the present moment this current is pointing to a concentration of power and a non-pluralist authoritarian regime whereby national identity is increasingly constructed in a form that conceptualizes political liberalism as an existential threat.
Topic:
International Relations, International Affairs, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Turkey

544. Towards an Inclusive Israeli Foreign Policy

Author:
Mitvim
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Due to developments in the international diplomatic arena, as well as the information revolution, foreign relations are no longer the sole purview of government officials. Increasingly, civil society organizations, businesses and private entrepreneurs are playing a pivotal role in international relations among states. Nevertheless, Israeli foreign policy is still considered the exclusive domain of experts. Indeed, significant sub-groups of the population – women, Palestinian citizens of Israel, ultra-Orthodox Jews, new immigrants and residents of the country's geographic periphery – do not participate meaningfully in the Israeli public debate concerning foreign affairs, let alone the corresponding decision- making process.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Israel

545. Lessons from Cyprus for Israel-Palestine: Can Negotiations Still Work?

Author:
Dahlia Scheindlin
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Cyprus conflict has been a protracted, unresolved conflict for roughly five decades. The two conflicts share ethno-nationalist and territorial dimensions; tension between a sovereign state and a sub-state entity, and a hostile military presence; decades of failed negotiations, with both sides showing ambiguous commitment to the intended political framework for resolution (two states, or a federated state, respectively); and high involvement of the international community. This paper maps points of comparison related to conflict resolution efforts in both cases, including references to the civil society, public, political leadership, and negotiation processes.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Israel and Palestine

546. Can Israel and Palestine learn from Colombia?

Author:
Dahlia Scheindlin
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
It is rare to hear any good news about conflicts de-escalating. This week, the world rallied around the implementation of a ceasefire between the notorious and shadowy FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) and the Colombia government. The conflict has dragged on for over fifty years. The most obvious and optimistic point is that a long and bloody past need not be the future forever. But other useful points are emerging, for comparison and maybe inspiration.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and International Security
Political Geography:
Israel, Colombia, and Palestine

547. Cooperation between Israel and the Arab world

Author:
Mitvim
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Israelis see high importance in advancing cooperation with Egypt, while cooperation with the Palestinian Authority is of low priority. This is the main finding from a public opinion poll conducted for the Mitvim Institute on July 13, 2016 by the Rafi Smith Institute and in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. It sampled 500 men and women, as a representative sample of the Israeli adult population (aged 18 and older, from both the Jewish and Arab sectors).
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Israel

548. THE MESO-LEVEL INTERPLAY OF CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT IN VIET NAM

Author:
Ian Christoplos, Le Duc Ngoan, Thi Hoa Sen Le, and Nguyen Thi Thanh Huong
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Goals for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management are widely recog- nised as overlapping, but little is known about the dynamics of this interplay in the perspectives and practices of local authorities. An important aspect of this is how provincial, district and municipal level institutions comprehend and operationalise climate change adaptation frameworks against the backdrop of their past experience of responding to disasters. This is in turn related to how they provide services to risk prone populations. This research report describes how meso-level institutions in Việt Nam mediate between the different intentions and priorities embodied in national climate change and disaster risk management policies, and ongoing efforts of indivi- dual households and communities to adapt to environmental change and natural hazards. Research findings suggest that they are doing this in a context wherein past assumptions about the role of the state are being questioned, but where answers remain ambiguous. Findings emphasise the process of ‘bricolage’ that is underway, wherein different disaster risk and climate goals, rules and structures are combined. Some of these institutional changes involve innovation and others reflect path dependencies anchored in past societal roles.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Disaster Relief, and Environment
Political Geography:
Vietnam

549. China and the World in the Coming Decade

Author:
Shyam Saran
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In the next decade, how US-China relations unfold will shape the external environment for countries like India. How does China perceive the Trump presidency?
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trump
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

550. India’s Reinvigorated Relationship with Africa

Author:
Rani Mullen and Ashish Arora
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The 21st century is witnessing a substantial re-engagement of India and Africa. Though India and Africa have a history dating back millennia, bilateral relations for most of the 20th century were tepid as each focused inward, first on anti- colonial struggles and then on building up their independent countries. However, since the turn of the century India has re-engage with Africa as both experienced significant economic growth and face similar development challenges on their path towards sustained progress. Acknowldeging the importance of mutual cooperation, both India and African countries have been engaging with each other through bilateral and multilateral initiatives, including the Pan-African e-network, India- Africa Forum Summits, such initiatives signal India and Africa's mutual interest in strengthening their relationship and South-South cooperation. Furthermore, in a changing global order where OECD countries are experiencing low growth trends and with the emergence of new multilateral institutions such as the BRICS countries-led New Development Bank, these rising powers are influencing global governance, geoeconomics, as well as the global development architecture. This report analyzes the changing India- Africa relationship, with a special focus on development partnerships between the two regions and the future potential of the relationship.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, and India