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211. What to Make of the Government’s Decision not to Extend its Mission in Mali

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
News stories about the Ogossagou massacre that killed more than 161 people, the death of Malian soldiers at the hands of jihadi terrorists, as well as the resignation of the Malian Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga hardly paint a picture of progress towards inter-communal peace in that country. In fact, an analysis of MINUSMA (the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali) attributed the continued instability to the low ranking of ‘protection of civilians’ on the list of priorities for that mission. In other words, it assessed that the situation was so dire that it required substantial changes to the framework of the operation for tangible improvement to materialize. Yet despite UN overtures and the “bad optics” of leaving before replacements have arrived, the Canadian government has been adamant about its objections to extending the mission in the West African country beyond July, citing its previously-set duration for the mission of one year. With less than three months remaining till the end of Operation PRESENCE, Canada’s contribution of peacekeeping efforts under MINUSMA, it is worth reflecting on the significance of this endeavour and attempting to understand the limitations that shaped it and have come to define it. The announcement of the mission came on the back of the Liberals’ success in the 2015 federal election which was preceded by a campaign that prominently featured the idea of returning Canada to its place as a country heavily involved in peacekeeping. Unfortunately, though, exclusive involvement in this peacekeeping mission falls massively short of campaign promises to commit up to 600 troops to such missions. Moreover, many experts have voiced their concerns about lack of progress in Mali and the need for a stronger commitment in terms of resources, but their pleas have fallen on deaf ears. Does that reflect a downgrading of peacekeeping as an international security priority for this government? There is evidence that suggests this is the case. A brief look at the Department of National Defence spending plans for 2019-2020 is sufficient to reveal the movement of funding to other operations. The most prominent of such operations are Operation LIMPID, REASSURANCE, and FOUNDATION. Operation LIMPID refers to CAF efforts to counter threats to the country sovereignty in a variety of realms including land, maritime, space and cyber domains; operation REASSURANCE deals with shoring up NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe to assure these countries of its support, while operation FOUNDATION deals with counter-terrorism efforts in the Middle East, North Africa, and South West Asia. So what accounts for this shift?
Topic:
United Nations, Military Strategy, Governance, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

212. Negotiating Venezuela’s future: First agreement, then elections

Author:
Mikael Wigell and Mikko Pyhala
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Venezuela needs a transition government with both pro-Maduro and anti-Maduro forces. Its function would be to renew the electoral institutions and negotiate a power-sharing agreement in order to lower the power stakes by protecting political minorities. Only then can presidential elections be held.
Topic:
Governance, Minorities, Elections, State Building, and Transition
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

213. Beyond Revenues: Measuring and Valuing Environmental and Social Impacts in Extractive Sector Governance

Author:
Nicola Woodroffe and Tim Grice
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Oil, gas and mining projects can generate substantial revenues for host countries. At the same time, extractive activities generate a range of other positive and negative economic, environmental, social, political, institutional and cultural impacts. Host countries must weigh the economic benefits of extractive projects against their environmental and social impacts. However, environmental and social impacts are often assessed in separate processes and by separate institutions from those assessing financial revenues and the modeling, measuring and reporting of these impacts is rarely integrated with financial impacts.
Topic:
Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Gas, and Mining
Political Geography:
Global Focus

214. Seeing Is No Longer Believing: Deepfakes, Cheapfakes and the Limits of Deception

Author:
Emilia Anna Porubcin
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Disguise and deception are permanent fixtures in history. Claiming another person’s identity is a practice that stretches all the way from ancient Rome to imperial Russia. Today’s technology, however, has introduced a bevy of tools that enhance and complicate duplicity online. One such tool has garnered significant interest from academia, industry, and the public, in recent years but especially in recent months: deepfakes. A portmanteau of “deep learning” and “fakes,” deepfakes are videos altered with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, often to portray one individual performing words or behavior of the deepfake creator’s choice. This paper explores the social and political ramifications of deepfakes. It documents their recent uses, surveys regulatory responses from both the private and public sectors, and explores the landscape of recommendations that have been made for their further regulation. In straying from a purely technical understanding of deepfakes and their effectiveness, this paper seeks to emphasize the value of non-regulatory responses to potentially malicious technologies. Deepfakes sit at the confluence of several consequential issues, including privacy, free speech, online identity, and who is in charge of defending these values. Their intersection produces an invaluable, and perhaps unprecedented, space for constructing and understanding information online. Finding a solution that can mitigate deepfakes’ negative use cases without hampering their positive assets will grant digital citizens a degree of freedom online that might be difficult to secure so effectively in any other environment.
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Governance, Resilience, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

215. The Russian Orthodox Church: Faith, Power and Conquest

Author:
James Sherr and Kaarel Kullamaa
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Until recently, the Russian Orthodox Church was a subject that interested few outside expert circles. That dramatically changed in late 2018 when the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople granted autocephaly (independence) to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. The reverberations of this decision — religious, political and geopolitcal — underscore the importance that the Church once again plays in Russian policy. In this report, we consider the role that the Russian Orthodox Church has played as an adjunct to an imperial policy stretching back over many centuries. Today, the Russian Federation has a secular constitution. But as much as in tsarist times, the Church regards itself as one of the pillars of Russia’s political order. As much as in the time of Catherine the Great, it is also a protagonist in its wars of identity and the rewriting of the history of former imperial subjects whose experience of the relationship between church and state is different from Russia’s. This diversity is well brought out in the report’s two case studies, Ukraine and Estonia. In both countries, local Orthodox churches embodied distinctive cultural traditions and values until they felt the full force of Russian control, tsarist and Soviet. Since 2014, Russia’s hybrid war in Ukraine has revived many historical controversies. It also has raised entirely new security concerns about the borderline between faith and politics. These concerns are summarised at the conclusion of the report, which closes with a section on policy recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, Religion, International Affairs, Governance, and Christianity
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Estonia

216. The Belarusian paradox: A country of today versus a president of the past

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Belarus is undergoing important societal changes – public attitudes are evolving, the private sector is expanding, and the national culture is experiencing a certain revival – but the country’s old command and repressive model of governance shows no signs of change. This widening disjuncture is a race against time. At some point in the future, the societal transformations will require a significant ideational and structural reform in the system of governance. The longer the reform is postponed, the more costly it will be for the country. The end of Alexander Lukashenko’s personalist rule, whenever that happens, is likely to put a succession problem and, possibly, even a question about the country’s political independence on the agenda. A principal aim of the Western policy towards Belarus should be pushing the country’s regime in the direction of market reforms, political liberalization, independent identity-building and all other means that strengthen the country’s resilience.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Liberalism, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

217. The protests in Iraq: Corruption and foreign interference in the firing line

Author:
Mariette Hagglund
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Recent large-scale protests in Iraq reveal deep dissatisfaction with the political elite and the dysfunctional system of governance. The protests could pose a threat to Iran’s foreign policy, whose channels of influence lie within parts of the Shia political elite in Iraq.
Topic:
Religion, Governance, Social Movement, Protests, and Elites
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

218. Climate-related Security Risks and Peacebuilding in Somalia

Author:
Karolina Eklöw and Florian Krampe
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Climate-related security risks are transforming the security landscape in which multilateral peacebuilding efforts take place. This policy paper offers a glimpse into the future of peacebuilding in the time of climate change by providing an in-depth assessment of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM). Climate-related change in Somalia has reduced livelihood options and caused migration. It has also left significant parts of the population in a vulnerable condition. These climate-related security risks contribute to grievances and increase inequality and fragility, which in turn pose challenges to the implementation of UNSOM’s mandate. The impacts of climate change have hindered UNSOM in its work to provide peace and security in Somalia and in its efforts to establish functioning governance and judicial systems. UNSOM has responded to the growing impact of climate-related change. It has learned lessons from previous failed responses—notably the 2011 drought—and has created innovative initiatives that have been effective. While there is still room for improvement, UNSOM’s new initiatives may help to deliver a set of responses that meet the short-term need for a rapid humanitarian response and the long-term objective of achieving a sustainable and resilient society. The challenges faced by UNSOM and its responses to them have wider implications. They suggest that there is a need for synergetic policy responses that can turn the responses to climate-related security risks into opportunities for UN efforts to sustain peace.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Migration, Governance, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

219. Driving Growth and Innovation in the Food Industry: Lessons from the Automobile Industry’s CAFE Standards

Author:
Hank Cardello
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Poor dietary patterns are the leading cause of noncommunicable disease in the U.S., and they are creating a significant burden on the economy and on quality of life. Diet-related disease is having a large impact on health outcomes among children and adults, leading to increasing healthcare costs, which has led to a focus on regulatory measures to curb the rising tide. Regulation has largely focused on the U.S. food system, as it provides low-cost, calorie-dense foods, which have been linked to a substantial increase in calories in the food supply and excessive calorie consumption. Substandard eating habits are linked to a number of health conditions, such as diabetes and obesity. Diabetes rates in the U.S. have more than tripled since 1970, and nearly 40 percent of adults are categorized as having obesity. The cost to the healthcare system is significant, and a myriad of health issues are linked to its pervasive spread in the country. Particularly concerning are increasing obesity rates among children, amidst continued public health interventions at the local, state, and national levels. Public health officials continue to advocate for additional regulation to shift dietary patterns. Policy efforts have ranged from voluntary commitments by the food industry to government-driven regulations such as taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and package-labeling provisions. Most of the government regulatory approaches to date have been piecemeal, typically led by local government bodies and focusing on a specific type of food or beverage for taxation, or tending to address a particular component, such as food package labeling. For example, Berkeley, CA passed a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in 2014, and the FDA has mandated changes to food labels to increase transparency about calories and added sugars. This paper seeks to open the discussion on a broader policy approach to reduce excessive consumption of calories, sugars, saturated fats, and sodium, which are linked to conditions such as diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease, and certain cancers. It will do this by exploring Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, an automobile industry “cap and trade” regulatory model.
Topic:
Economics, Food, Governance, Culture, Regulation, Economic growth, Innovation, Public Health, Society, and Obesity
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

220. State of Financial Cooperatives in Zambia: A viable option for increasing financial inclusion?

Author:
Tamara Billima-Mulenga, Felix Mwenge, and Gibson Masumbu
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This policy brief presents the summary findings of a study on Promoting Financial Cooperatives (FCs)in Zambia that was conducted between 2017 and 2018 with financial support from the Rural Finance Expansion Program (RUFEP), Ministry of Commerce Trade and Industry (MCTI) and the Zambia Center for Accountancy Studies (ZCAS). The study used both qualitative and quantitative approaches which included a situational analysis of FCs in Zambia, a study tour to Kenya and a Census of FCs in eight provinces. The main objective of the study was to contribute to the development of FCs in Zambia by generating information on their performance. The secondary objectives of the study were to: 1. Undertake a situational analysis to develop a clear understanding of the landscape for the FCs in Zambia in terms of the regulatory framework, support institutions and the nature and level at which the FCs operate. 2. Undertake a Census of FCs to understand the opportunities and constraining factors for the growth of the Cooperatives movement in Zambia. It was envisaged that the study would provide evidence about FCs that could be used in the revision of the Cooperatives Act currently underway, aid MCTI understand the nature of Cooperatives and devise strategies for monitoring FCs. The study also aimed at providing information about the state of FCs that can be used for various purposes by the apex body of FCs and stakeholders such as the Bank of Zambia.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Trade, and Financial Cooperatives
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia