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91. Great-power competition and the rising US-China rivalry: Towards a new normal?

Author:
Bart Gaens and Ville Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The United States and China are posited to be at the epicenter of an emerging and – by most accounts – intensifying rivalry. This report delves into the theoretical underpinnings as well as the geostrategic and geo-economic dynamics driving this great-power competition. It explores future prospects for contestation and engagement in key issue areas, such as arms control, trade and sanctions. The chapters in this volume also examine the Indo-Pacific as the immediate regional frontline of the unfolding great-power contest and explore the role that Europe has to play in this game. As the world is crossing the threshold into a new age of great-power competition, the debate on the US-China rivalry reveals the complex and contested nature of the meanings, causes, policy implications and future prospects of what is set to become the “new normal” in global politics.
Topic:
Hegemony, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

92. The Geopolitics of Food Security: Barriers to the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger

Author:
Jiayi Zhou, Lisa Marie Dellmuth, Kevin M. Adams, Tina-Simone Neset, and Nina von Uexkull
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Assessing the prospects for Zero Hunger—Sustainable Development Goal 2—requires an understanding of food security that goes beyond developmental or humanitarian issues, to include linkages with geopolitics. Geopolitical challenges cut across areas such as natural resources, trade, armed conflict and climate change where unilateralism and zero-sum approaches to security directly hamper efforts to eradicate hunger and undermine the frameworks that govern those efforts. The report provides an overview of how geopolitics interacts with these areas. Competition for agricultural resources can be both a cause and a consequence of geopolitical rivalry. International trade, while essential for food security, also creates vulnerabilities through supply disruptions—sometimes politically motivated. Armed conflict is a driver of food insecurity, which can itself feed into social unrest and violence. Climate change interacts with all three phenomena, reshaping both the physical landscape and political calculus. These overlapping linkages require further integrated policy engagement and analysis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, International Trade and Finance, Governance, Food Security, Geopolitics, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

93. Civil War in the Horn of Africa?: Four Possible Trajectories for Ethiopia

Author:
James Barnett
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
A civil war is erupting in Ethiopia—Africa’s second most populous state, a geopolitical fulcrum in the volatile Red Sea arena, and the seat of the African Union (AU). The question now is whether a ceasefire can quickly be brokered that would, in the best case, serve as the basis for a broader national dialogue aimed at stabilizing the country’s political transition; or whether the situation will devolve into a multisided conflict that draws in neighboring states and further destabilizes what is already one of the world’s most fragile regions. As of this writing, the latter unfortunately seems more likely, but there is still hope for a ceasefire, particularly if Ethiopia’s regional and international partners make a concerted push for de-escalation. One should not use the term “civil war” lightly, but this appears to be the course that Ethiopia is on. While in recent years the country has suffered from intercommunal clashes, assassinations, a coup attempt, and a low-level insurgency, this is the first time that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has faced a direct challenge from a well-armed state within the state. The stakes are high. With a population of over 100 million, the United States Institute of Peace’s senior study group on the Red Sea warns that Ethiopia’s disintegration would constitute “the largest state collapse in modern history.”
Topic:
International Relations, Civil War, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Horn of Africa

94. Social-Conservative Russian soft power: A traditional agenda and illiberal values as a source of attraction or coercion? A case study of Slovakia

Author:
Martin Solik
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The ongoing polarization of European society in the political-ideological context is apparent. This polarization causes considerable tension in society. Sophisticated soft power based on political values and policies that Russia has been using against the West especially since 2012 is a power struggle for people’s minds and souls. Russia does not only try to undercut faith in Europe and its institutions among its citizens, but it also aims to offer a “better” alternative. There is an increasing effort to create an alternative value universe against the “nihilist” and “decadent” West – not only in Russia but also in the whole World. There is quite a visible ambition from the Russian side to become the “illiberal” world leader. This contribution has been drawn up in the context of this urgent issue. The article examines whether Russian soft power fulfils the criteria of attractiveness or just coercion, and what Russia is pursuing by promoting this form of power.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Conservatism, Ideology, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Europe, and Slovakia

95. Fostering Europe’s Strategic Autonomy - A question of purpose and action

Author:
Giovanni Grevi
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
Strategic autonomy is about empowering Europe, not disengaging from partnerships, globalisation or multilateralism. The core of strategic autonomy is not that Europeans should act alone, but that they should have a purpose of their own, and a stronger power base to fulfil that purpose through cooperation with others whenever possible, or on their own, if needed. As such, strategic autonomy is not a condition to be achieved once and for all, but a mindset and a process, guiding initiatives across multiple areas. By advancing its strategic autonomy, Europe should acquire a stronger position to manage interdependence amidst geopolitical competition – arguably the defining challenge of our times. The concept has become central to a number of statements by EU and national leaders, and to important EU policy documents. Although the level of ambition and requirements for progress differ across policy areas – from trade and investment to innovation, the single market or security and defence – and are the subject of ongoing debate, an EU strategic narrative is emerging alongside current or envisaged policy measures and initiatives. These policy developments point to three main tracks of action, or dimensions of Europe’s strategic autonomy, namely bracing against threats and challenges, empowering Europe by joining forces and engaging others to strengthen a rules-based international order. Bracing. Europe needs to strengthen its resilience and political cohesion in the face of multi-dimensional competition. It needs to counter trade-distorting practices and unfair competition, while better enforcing the rules and obligations of EU trade agreements. Europe should also reduce its current overdependence on foreign technologies and companies, such as for 5G and data infrastructure, and Europeans should do more to secure their critical infrastructure against malicious practices or cyberattacks. Empowering. Europe is much more than the sum of its parts, even though it often performs as less than that because of disagreements among EU member states, or their reluctance to pool their resources. Completing and strengthening the Single Market is crucial to sustaining both Europe’s growth and the EU’s regulatory power. Eliminating current barriers within the Digital Single Market will be critical to spur innovation and scale-up European technology companies while creating a regime for data sharing and access that benefits all market actors and citizens. To both deliver the capabilities that Europeans need and acquire a real operational capacity, EU member states should make full use of the arrangements for defence cooperation established in the last few years, on the basis of a better-defined set of shared goals. Engaging. The purpose of shaping and supporting a rules-based international order should continue to drive Europe’s foreign policy, even though Europeans will need to take a pragmatic approach in a context of geopolitical competition. The election of Joe Biden paves the way to dialogue and cooperation with the US, and to reinforcing the transatlantic partnership and multilateralism.
Topic:
Globalization, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe

96. Toward a More Proliferated World? The Geopolitical Forces that Will Shape the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Eric M. Brewer, Ilan Goldenberg, Joseph Rodgers, Maxwell Simon, and Kaleigh Thomas
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security
Abstract:
The United States and the international community have been relatively successful at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, but there are new reasons to question whether this track record will last into the future. Working with partners, the United States has steadily built a framework of disincentives and barriers to prevent proliferation. These include: 1) international treaties and agreements that have erected legal, political, and normative barriers to the bomb; 2) U.S. security commitments to allies that dampen their own perceived need for nuclear weapons; and, 3) a set of tough penalties (e.g., sanctions) for those who get caught trying to build the bomb. In other words, the barriers to entry to the nuclear club are high, and those countries that want the ultimate weapon need to be willing to accept significant risks. This helps explain why, although many countries have explored or pursued nuclear weapons, only nine states have them today. But several trends are eroding the foundation on which this formidable set of barriers rests. These trends are rooted in, and being shaped by, changes to the nature and structure of the international system: namely, the decline of U.S. influence and its gradual withdrawal from the international order that it helped create and lead for more than 70 years, and the concurrent rise of a more competitive security environment, particularly among great powers. These trends (detailed below) will have three broad implications for proliferation and U.S. policy. First, they stand to increase pressures on countries to seek nuclear weapons or related capabilities as a hedge. Second, they will almost certainly challenge the U.S. ability to effectively wield the traditional “carrots and sticks” of nonproliferation and counterproliferation policy and dilute the effectiveness of those tools. Finally, they could increasingly pit U.S. nonproliferation goals against other policy objectives, forcing harder tradeoffs.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, Nonproliferation, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

97. The Cultural Reflections on the Middle Eastern Geopolitics: An Assessment on the Cultural Heritage | Ortadoğu Jeopolitiğinde Kültürel Yansımalar: Kültürel Miras Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Author:
Senem Atvur
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
The territory known as the Fertile Crescent is located at the eastern part of the Mediterranean Basin. This region, where the agriculture was developed, the first human settlements started, arts and culture were shaped, is now called the Middle East. The concept of the “Middle East” had started to be used at the beginning of the 20th century, when imperialist politics had spread worldwide. Due to the common use of the Middle East concept, the region was defined with a Western-centric perspective. This identification has played an essential role in the interpretation of Middle Eastern with Western concepts and on the construction of the cultural hegemony in the region. The stereotypes created by the West and adopted by the regional actors have caused homogenisation of the cultural diversity in the Middle East. Hence, the powerful actors of the international system could expand their zone of influence in the region. This study focuses on the importance of the area called the Middle East in the history of humanity and on the cultural heritage of this region. It is argued that to break the geopolitical interests of great actors in the region; the Middle East should reconcile with its cultural history and a new image of the Middle East based on common cultural heritage. | Tarımın geliştiği, yerleşik hayatın başladığı, yazının ve sanatın şekillendiği, Akdeniz Havzası’nın doğusunda kalan ve Bereketli Hilal olarak anılan topraklar bugün Ortadoğu olarak adlandırılmaktadır. “Ortadoğu” kavramı, 20. yüzyıl başlarında, emperyalist politikaların yaygınlaştığı dönemde kullanılmaya başlamıştır. Ortadoğu kavramının kullanımının yaygınlık kazanması, bölgenin Batı merkezli bakış açısıyla tanımlanması sonucunu da beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu durum Ortadoğu kültürlerinin Batılı tanımlar üzerinden yorumlanması ve bölgede kültürel hegemonyanın inşasında rol oynamıştır. Batı’nın yarattığı Ortadoğulu stereotipinin bölge içinde de kabulü, bölgenin kültürel çeşitliliğini tektipleştirici bir etki yaratmış; bu durum Ortadoğu coğrafyasında, uluslararası sistemin güçlü aktörlerinin etki alanlarını genişletmesini sağlamıştır. Bu çalışma Ortadoğu olarak adlandırılan coğrafyanın insanlık tarihinde üstlendiği rol ile sahip olduğu kültürel birikimin önemine odaklanmaktadır. Çalışmada uluslararası aktörlerin bölgeye ilişkin jeopolitik çıkarlarının kırılması yönünde Ortadoğu’nun kültürel geçmişi ile barışması ve ortak kültürel miras üzerine inşa edilen yeni bir Ortadoğu imgesinin gerekliliğine vurgu yapılmaktadır.
Topic:
Culture, Geopolitics, Heritage, and Identity
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

98. The Evaluation of Russia's Foreign Policy Towards Georgia Following the ‘Rose Revolution’

Author:
Ekaterine Lomia
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
For more than twenty-eight years, following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russian-Georgian relations have been a substantial ground for mutual confrontation, sharp dispute, and a lack of trust. Continuous tensions and disagreements have adversely affected efforts to achieve a proper balance in bilateral relations between the neighboring countries and resulted in a number of direct and indirect confrontations. Whilst the Russian president seeks to restore Russia’s great power status, regain its past glory and control strategically important regions of the former Soviet space, Georgia, from the very first day of independence, tries to maintain its sovereignty and territorial integrity, develop modern state institutions, strengthen democratic values and integrate into the Euro-Atlantic structures. The paper aims to study Moscow’s current foreign policy strategy towards Georgia following the ‘Rose revolution’ and argues that Russia’s military intervention in Georgia, in August 2008, was a clear illustration of classical realism used by a great power in the XXI century. Russia actively uses hybrid warfare and regularly employs economic leverage on Georgia to eventually achieve its political ends in the Caucasus region.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Economy, and Annexation
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Georgia

99. Protests, Not Geopolitics, Will Shape the Middle East in the New Decade

Author:
Rabah Arezki
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
However unsurmountable geopolitical crises may seem today, it will be domestic protests that determine the social and economic landscape in the Middle East in the coming years. The Middle East has been plunged into turmoil. The killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani by the United States on 3 January 2020 created a tense military and political situation in the region. In response, Tehran said it would abandon the 2015 accord under which it agreed to restrictions on its nuclear program and fired rockets at bases housing the US military in Iraq. Washington has sent more troops to the region and imposed new economic sanctions on Iran. However, further escalation seems to have been avoided—at least so far.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, Geopolitics, Protests, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East

100. India's "Africa Adventure" in the Indian Ocean Commission

Author:
Jagannath P. Panda
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
On March 6, 2020, India secured the distinction of ob‐ server status to the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), an association that consists of five Indian Ocean states—Mauritius, Seychelles, Madagascar, Comoros, and Réunion (France). New Delhi is now formally clubbed in the IOC along with the four other observer countries of China, Malta, the European Union, and the International Organisation of La Francophone (OIF). What does this mean for India’s power play in the Indo-Pacific? ​ Fundamentally, inclusion in the IOC points to a more serious structural maritime engagement for India in the Western Indian Ocean region. The IOC is a key grouping working to foster cooperation on both traditional and non-traditional security matters of the Western Indian Ocean, which connects the Southeastern Coast of Africa with the mainstream Indian Ocean. In other words, this association opens the gateway for a more formal "continental connection" between India and the Eastern African coastal countries bordering the Indian Ocean. It not only enhances India’s stature as a rising maritime power in the Western Indian Ocean, but also exemplifies India’s security-based desire for institutionalized association with countries in the region. It promotes cooperation between India and the littoral countries on the Eastern African Coast in a number of key activities in the region: maritime-military aid and assistance, capacity building, joint military exercises, sea patrolling, logistics and intelligence assistantship, and naval training...
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, India, and Indian Ocean