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41. Strategic Insights: Five Myths Associated With Employing Private Military Companies

Author:
Edward Mienie and C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
In August of 2017, Blackwater founder Erik Prince offered a plan for privatizing the war in Afghanistan, where he would replace the approximately 23,000 multinational forces (of which 15,000 are U.S. troops) and 27,000 contractors with 2,000 special forces and 6,000 security contractors who would embed with the Afghan National Army. Though the administration apparently rejected the plan at the time, multiple media outlets report there may be renewed interest, especially given the United States remains unable to resolve the conflict despite adopting a new, more aggressive strategy. Predictably, and justifiably, this interest has sparked a great deal of concern. Both former Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Chief of Staff John Kelly, in addition to a host of others, are reportedly opposed to the plan. With their departure, another opportunity to reconsider Prince’s proposal may arise.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Finance, Business, Military Spending, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

42. Financial Development in Myanmar and the Role of Japan

Author:
Tomoo Kikuchi and Takehiro Masutomo
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
Since 2011, under the Thein Sein government, Myanmar has started to build financial institutions almost from scratch. Japan has played a leading role in this effort, writing off debt, opening the Yangon Stock Exchange, vying for the entry of Japanese banks, and laying out finance-related laws. Myanmar’s weak institutions present considerable challenges. By examining common features of financial markets in Southeast Asia, this paper identifies the preconditions for financial development to be a vehicle for Myanmar’s industrialisation as well as the rationale for Japan’s public and private involvement in Myanmar.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Finance, Institutions, Private Sector, and Industrialization
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Myanmar

43. Balancing Strategic Trade Control Implementation with the Broadening Role of Technology and Financial Controls in Foreign Policy

Author:
Crystal Pryor
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The Pacific Forum, National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, and I-Shou University’s Department of Public Policy and Management with support from the Taiwan Coast Guard, Prospect Foundation, Ocean Affairs Council, and the US State Department’s Export Control and Related Border Security Program held their eighth annual strategic trade control (STC) workshop on Nov. 7-8, 2018 in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Nearly 40 participants from relevant government agencies and nongovernmental organizations attended in their private capacities. Discussions focused on the status of outreach programs in the Asia-Pacific, proliferation finance controls, issues associated with technology controls and transfers, the relationship between foreign policy and nonproliferation goals, and transit/transshipment and port security.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Regulation, Finance, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific

44. Cyber Risk Scenarios, the Financial System, and Systemic Risk Assessment

Author:
Lincoln Kaffenberger and Emanuel Kopp
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Cyber risk has become a key issue for stakeholders in the financial system. But its properties are still not precisely characterized and well understood. To help develop a better understanding, we discuss the properties of cyber risk and categorize various cyber risk scenarios. Furthermore, we present a conceptual framework for assessing systemic cyber risk to individual countries. This involves analyzing cyber risk exposures, assessing cybersecurity and preparedness capabilities, and identifying buffers available to absorb cyber risk–induced shocks.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Finance, Internet, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. Lessons Learned and Evolving Practices of the TIBER Framework for Resilience Testing in the Netherlands

Author:
Petra Hielkema and Raymond Kleijmeer
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Financial institutions face an evolving threat landscape with a wide range of hostile actors targeting them. Regulators and consumers reasonably expect the institutions to make themselves more secure. The question then emerges as to whether financial institutions are complying with the different standards, rules, and regulations regarding their security. International standard-setting bodies have recognized the need to raise the bar higher for the resilience of financial institutions. The publication of the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures-International Organization of Securities Commissions (CPMI-IOSCO) guidance on cyber resilience in June 2016 has been pivotal in emphasizing the need to have an integrated approach for financial market infrastructures, with the institution’s board being ultimately responsible and accountable for cyber resilience.1 Increasingly, authorities and financial institutions alike recognize that, in addition to assessing the overall resilience posture of a financial institution against sophisticated attacks, it will be important to actually test this posture. The CPMI-IOSCO guidance includes a chapter dedicated to testing, containing several examples of activities to that end. Recently, frameworks for testing the resilience posture of institutions in practice have been developed internationally.
Topic:
Markets, Science and Technology, Finance, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe, Netherlands, and Global Focus

46. Hyperinflation in Venezuela: A Stabilization Handbook

Author:
Gonzalo Huertas
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The unrelenting surge in prices in Venezuela has crippled the economy and deepened the humanitarian crisis there. Huertas lays out a feasible stabilization plan to stop Venezuela’s hyperinflation. The extent of the humanitarian crisis and shortage of basic goods and services suggests that, on the fiscal side, a stabilization plan should focus primarily on reallocating rather than reducing spending. The authorities should avoid austerity policies and instead spend on taking care of the Venezuelan people. Stabilizing the price level while providing relief to the country’s population would require significant financial assistance from the rest of the world, so it is critical that Venezuela secure strong financial support from the international community. Successful stabilization requires a credible plan to transition to a responsible fiscal policy, the financial resources to carry it out, and the political will to sustain it.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Finance, Inflation, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

47. Global E-Commerce Talks Stumble on Data Issues, Privacy, and More

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zhiyaou (Lucy) Lu
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In early 2019, several important members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) submitted noteworthy proposals in a realm of international commerce that has evolved faster than rules to govern it: e-commerce or digital trade. While countries agree on less controversial subjects like banning unsolicited commercial electronic messages, the three leading WTO members—China, the European Union, and the United States—have big differences in their approaches to more challenging issues: data flows, data localization, privacy invasions by data collectors, transfer of source code, imposition of customs duties and internet taxes, and internet censorship. Their differing viewpoints lead Hufbauer and Lu to conclude that the prospect of reaching a high-level WTO e-commerce agreement is not promising. To reach an agreement, either most of the contentious issues must be dropped or the number of participating countries must be sharply reduced. A WTO accord, even of low ambition, would have value if only to establish basic digital norms on matters such as banning unsolicited commercial messages and protecting online consumers from fraudulent practices. A more ambitious accord covering the controversial issues should be negotiated in bilateral and/or plurilateral/regional pacts rather than in the WTO.
Topic:
Economics, World Trade Organization, Finance, Privacy, and Data
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, United States of America, and European Union

48. US-China Trade War: Both Countries Lose, World Markets Adjust, Others Gain

Author:
Sherman Robinson and Karen Thierfelder
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The terms of the US-China trade war change often, but the tariff escalations have inflicted documented economic damage on both countries. Expanding the conflict will only increase the damage and reverberate across the world economy. This Policy Brief uses a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy to analyze three scenarios that could unfold in coming months. The first scenario is the current situation (as of June 2019). Two additional scenarios assume implementation of proposed US tariffs and Chinese responses. The models project the situation after the two countries and the rest of the world adjust across a time horizon of three to five years. For the United States, higher tariffs raise prices and reduce demand for consumers and producers. For China, the tariffs raise the prices of consumer goods but have less direct impact on producers, because the Chinese have exempted some intermediate inputs. US exports and imports decline under all three scenarios. But China can successfully divert its exports away from the United States and escape maximum economic damage.
Topic:
Economics, Global Markets, Finance, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

49. How to Restructure Sovereign Debt: Lessons from Four Decades

Author:
Lee Buchheit, Guillaume Chabert, Chanda DeLong, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper attempts to provide a playbook for the sovereign debt restructuring process, drawing on the experience with sovereign debt restructuring since the 1980s. It begins with a discussion of the participating actors and their interests. It then describes the considerations that must be weighed in designing, negotiating, and concluding a debt restructuring, in light of two problems: asymmetric information between the debtor and the creditors, and creditor coordination problems, which can lead to free riding (the “holdout” problem). The paper focuses on how these problems, which can lead to inefficiently negotiated outcomes, can be managed and minimized in practice.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Sovereignty, and Finance
Political Geography:
Global

50. Efforts of Oil Exporters in the Middle East and North Africa to Diversify Away from Oil Have Fallen Short

Author:
Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Faced with fluctuating oil prices and other uncertainties, the oil-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa have made efforts—some for decades—to diversify their exports, in order to reduce their dependence on oil revenue and generate much-needed jobs. The results of these diversification efforts have been disappointing overall, raising concerns about the region's stability and potential risk to the global economy. Transparent public debates and dialogue are needed, especially with the private sector, about policies that have worked and those that have not, the costs and benefits of various diversification strategies, and improving governance of public resources being used for diversification.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Finance, Diversification, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa