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241. Rebuilding a Bipartisan Consensus on Trade Policy

Author:
Phil Levy
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Once upon a time, there was centrist, bipartisan support for US leadership in crafting an open global trading system. Over recent decades, though, as trade grew more complex, the share of US workers in manufacturing fell, and China emerged as an economic power, that consensus dissolved. By the 2016 election, both major party presidential candidates opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement central to US economic and foreign policy. Lest this opposition seem to represent a new consensus, it ushered in the recent period of political discord over trade. While some praised aggressive US actions to address trade deficits and national security concerns, others worried about the fraying of the global trading system and international markets lost to retaliatory barriers. This book provides the non-specialist reader with the background to understand the debates about trade. It begins by briefly tracing the history of US support for trade, as well as the shifts in the manufacturing sector that helped inspire calls to “make America great again.” It also considers the particular challenges posed by China’s emergence as a trading power while calling into question popular thinking on the resultant “China Shock” to US manufacturing. The book also offers an accessible guide to many of the esoteric topics that underlie today’s trade debates. It starts with tariffs, but proceeds to tackle issues such as trade deficits, intellectual property rights protection, rules of origin for goods, antidumping procedures, labor and environmental protections, and sovereignty. Finally, the book offers ways to move beyond the impasse that had emerged by 2016. Rather than focusing on a specific agreement such as the updated NAFTA (USMCA), it looks at whether deals should be bilateral or multilateral, and just how transparent negotiations need to be. It divides some particularly contentious issues into those that are easily addressed, those that might be feasible with work, and those that are nonstarters. While most of the work to restore a consensus would be difficult, the rewards would be great. The book concludes with a warning that the penalties for not restoring US leadership on trade could be severe.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, Trade Policy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

242. Inclusive Urban Economic Development: A Framework For Action

Author:
Alaina Harkness
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Cities are the world economy’s innovation hubs; with their dense concentrations of people, firms, talent, and other resources, they are the engines of economic growth and prosperity. Unfortunately, cities are also the home to severe economic inequality. As cities get larger, they tend to become more unequal; in all countries except for Canada, all metros with more than 500,000 people had levels of inequality well above the national average. Left unchecked, these growth patterns will deepen the global economic divide and could threaten the stability and vitality of both cities and nations. Can cities resolve these apparent (and seemingly fundamental) tensions between growth and inclusion?
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Economy, Economic growth, Urban, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Canada and Global Focus

243. Contraband, Drug Trafficking and the Configuration of Institutional Circuits for their Protection in Mexico / Contrabando,tráficodedrogasylaconfiguracióndecircuitosinstitucionalesparasuprotecciónenMéxico

Author:
Carlos Antonio Flores Pérez
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
In this article analyses the evolution, throughout the XX century, of criminal networks that had participation in illicit trafficking goods and illegal psychoactive drugs- in the Mexican states of Nuevo León and Tamaulipas, in the border with Texas, United States. Based on the information contained in government documents found in the General Archive of the Nation (AGN) of Mexico, federal criminal courts of the United States and newspaper sources, I show the central role played by federal and state institutional actors to consolidate these networks and their illegal activities through the guarantee of impunity. These actors, along with their partners in the business and criminal fields, set up institutional circuits to protect such traffics and allow the integration of illicit capital in the formal economy.
Topic:
Crime, Narcotics Trafficking, Economy, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:
Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

244. Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions

Author:
Ellie Geranmayeh and Manuel Lafont Rapnouil
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Secondary sanctions have become a critical challenge for Europe, due to the Trump administration’s maximalist policy on Iran and its aggressive economic statecraft. Europe’s vulnerabilities mostly result from asymmetric interdependence with the US economy, due to the size of US markets and the global role of the US dollar. In future, states will likely weaponise economic interdependence with the EU to target countries that are more important to the European economy than Iran, such as China and Russia. European countries should demonstrate that, despite their economic interdependence with the US, they control EU foreign policy. The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy, begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions, and prepare to adopt asymmetric countermeasures against any country that harms European interests through secondary sanctions. They should also attempt to bolster the global role of the euro and lead a robust international dialogue on the role of sanctions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, Economy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Iran, North America, and United States of America

245. Harnessing artificial intelligence

Author:
Ulrike Franke
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council On Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence is impossible to disregard – it is set to transform society, the economy, and politics. Europe has not yet taken all the steps it needs to benefit from these advances or to protect itself from AI’s potentially dangerous aspects. The US, China, and Russia are alert to AI’s power to change modern warfare: they grasp the geopolitics of AI and may pursue techno-nationalist agendas in recognition of this. Europe can develop sovereignty in AI by beefing up the talent, data, and hardware it draws on; and as a “regulatory superpower” it can set standards the rest of the world will have to follow. If Europe does not address these difficult questions soon it will find itself surrounded by more powerful rivals deploying AI against it.
Topic:
Politics, Geopolitics, Economy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

246. An Arduous Path: Are Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania Ready to Join the Area?

Author:
Žiga Faktor
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The concept of free movement between European countries anchored in the Schengen Agreement, manifested in the creation of the borderless Schengen Area, is arguably one of the great achievements of European integration. By facilitating conditions for trade, services and movement of citizens, the Schengen Area acts as one of the converging economic factors for Member States. Decision on the dissolution of state borders is generally seen as a positive step for economic development, regional integration and a sign of trust between the countries. Nevertheless, it also raises many questions and challenges, especially on the topic of security and compliance of national laws with rules and conditions set in the Agreement. This article will focus on the accession of Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania to the Schengen Area and discuss the main difficulties and obstacles for each country.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Trade, and Schengen
Political Geography:
Europe, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia

247. The National Oil Company Database

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The National Oil Company Database helps fill a significant gap in knowledge of the global economy. National oil companies (NOCs) produce approximately 55 percent of the world’s oil and gas, pumping out an estimated 85 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The World Bank has estimated that they control up to 90 percent of global oil and gas reserves, thereby serving as gatekeepers for international oil companies’ access to hydrocarbons. Within their home countries, NOCs influence the degree to which billions of people benefit—or suffer—as a result of their countries’ hydrocarbon wealth. Many of these companies manage multi-billion-dollar portfolios of public assets, execute complex projects across their territories and at sea, employ citizens in the tens or hundreds of thousands, and perform a range of public services from providing energy to building infrastructure.
Topic:
Government, Oil, Economy, and Database
Political Geography:
Global Focus

248. Stepping on the Gas: Future-Proofing Estonia’s Energy Market and Security

Author:
Andrei V. Belyi
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Baltic region is making a significant progress in developing functioning regional natural gas market, expanding and integrating the related infrastructure, and ensuring the security of supply. However, there are multiple factors—at the national, regional, European and even global levels—that prevent this from becoming an ideal market capable of delivering greater security at a reasonable cost. Liquidity of the market is low due to falling consumption; state aid and state participation in the energy enterprises discourage private investments and distort market conditions, while geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia add further complications. The report considers the trends in the overall natural gas sector—such as greater portion of trade being conducted in gas trading hubs; more reliance on spot pricing rather than long-term contracts; LNG glut in the global markets, introduction of “virtual pipelines” and flexible infrastructure, pressure to reduce CO2 emissions as well as the US entry into the global LNG market as a major player—and analyses their implications to Estonia. It puts forward a number of recommendations on how to create and sustain the conditions necessary for efficient natural gas market in the region as well as for improved energy security of Estonia.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, European Union, Economy, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

249. China’s Economic Slowdown: Root Causes, Beijing’s Response and Strategic Implications for the US and Allies

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This monograph attempts to argue and/or demonstrate three main points. First, it looks at why there were credible fears about the stability and viability of the Chinese economy — especially the financial and banking system — leading up to the end of the Twelfth Five Year Plan (2011–15), and what these were. To understand why Beijing was so concerned, the monograph draws out the serious structural problems that were leading inevitably to a permanent slowdown from the double-digit growth rates of the first three decades of reform. Second, the monograph looks at what occurred from 2015 to the present, and how China apparently overcame its economic difficulties. In fact, it has not overcome its problems, but deferred them to a future time in ways that only its unique authoritarian political economy is able to do.Third, it is clear the Communist Party is not passively awaiting an unhappy economic fate in connection with its mounting imbalances and domestic economic dysfunction. In many respects, its leaders have been highly creative in seeking solutions that do not entail a weakening of the party’s hold on economic power. On the contrary, the party has been busily shaping and pursuing grand strategic policies such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025) to solve or alleviate many of its domestic political-economic problems. This monograph argues that these and other outward-focused initiatives stem most fundamentally from Chinese weaknesses and vulnerabilities but are being remade and recast into initiatives that will strengthen the position of the CCP domestically, ensure greater resilience for its political economy, and advance its ambitious strategic and international objectives at the same time. In summary, it is about the Communist Party cleverly transforming domestic vulnerability into grand strategy and using economic approaches to gain pre-eminence and “win without fighting.”
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Geopolitics, Economy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

250. In Further Pursuit of an IMF-Programme: Possible Pathways for Zambia and Lessons for Africa

Author:
Caesar Cheelo and Nakubyana Mungomba
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Since 2015, Zambia’s real GDP growth has declined markedly, its local currency has depreciated notably with episodes of serious volatility, and the risks of fiscal and debt distress have mounted. As the country searches for solutions, one viable international economic diplomacy instrument might be the IMF. Since its creation in 1945, the IMF has fostered global monetary cooperation, secured financial stability, international trade, high employment, sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction, mainly through: lending, surveillance and capacity building. Zambia has been pursuing an IMF-supported economic programme since about 2016, but with dismal success. In contrast, other economies like Ghana and Zimbabwe appear to be making headway. Key questions emerge from the foregoing: what does the evidence say about the relevance and significance of an IMF-supported programme for Zambia? Why has the country’s recent quest for an IMF deal failed? Does Zambia have feasible pathways to an IMF deal? This paper tackles these issues using simply descriptive statistical analysis, stylized facts and a political economy lens. We highlight a number of specific pathways that Zambia could follow in further pursuit of an IMF-support programme.
Topic:
Political Economy, GDP, Economy, Macroeconomics, Currency, and IMF
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia