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261. Peace in Venezuela: Is There Life after the Barbados Talks?

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The standoff between Venezuela’s government and opposition has reached a worrying juncture, with negotiations falling apart, side deals emerging and regional states rolling out new sanctions on Caracas. Resuming the talks is the safest path to an exit from the country’s ever deepening crisis. What’s new? At least for now, Norwegian-facilitated negotiations to end Venezuela’s presidential showdown have collapsed. Meanwhile, President Nicolás Maduro’s government has forged an agreement with minority opposition parties. Together with regional powers’ decision to define Venezuela as a threat to hemispheric security, these developments could complicate a resolution of the crisis. Why does it matter? Failure to restore political stability and socio-economic well-being in Venezuela fuels South America’s worst-ever refugee crisis, risks a low-intensity internal conflict, propagates tensions across the region and threatens to trigger military clashes with neighbouring Colombia. What should be done? Allies of the two sides should press them to overcome their reluctance and return to the negotiating table, possibly under a new format, where they should show the necessary flexibility to reach a workable agreement.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

262. Keeping Ethiopia’s Transition on the Rails

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ethiopia’s political opening under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has won well-deserved accolades but also uncorked dangerous centrifugal forces, among them ethnic strife. With international partners’ diplomatic and financial support, the government should proceed more cautiously – and consultatively – with reforms that could exacerbate tensions. What’s new? Clashes in October 2019 in Oromia, Ethiopia’s most populous region, left scores of people dead. They mark the latest explosion of ethnic strife that has killed hundreds and displaced millions across the country over the past year and half. Why did it happen? Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has taken important steps to move the country toward more open politics. But his efforts to dismantle the old order have weakened the Ethiopian state and given new energy to ethno-nationalism. Hostility among the leaders of Ethiopia’s most powerful regions has soared. Why does it matter? Such tensions could derail Ethiopia’s transition. Meanwhile, reforms Abiy is making to the country’s powerful but factious ruling coalition anger opponents, who believe that they aim to undo Ethiopia’s ethnic federalist system, and could push the political temperature still higher. Elections in May 2020 could be divisive and violent. What should be done? Abiy should step up efforts to mend divisions within and among Ethiopia’s regions and push all parties to avoid stoking tensions around the elections. International partners should press Ethiopian leaders to curb incendiary rhetoric and offer increased aid to protect the country from economic shocks that could aggravate political problems.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

263. Containing the Border Fallout of Colombia’s New Guerrilla Schism

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tensions are rising on the Colombia-Venezuela border after a new guerrilla faction opted out of Colombia’s 2016 peace deal. With diplomatic ties between the two countries severed, the risk of escalation is high. Bogotá and Caracas should open channels of communication to avoid inter-state clashes. What’s new? Former commanders of the demobilised Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) announced the creation of a new dissident faction from a location seemingly close to the Colombia-Venezuela border, triggering accusations from Bogotá that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government is sheltering and supporting the group. Why does it matter? Already at loggerheads over Maduro’s legitimacy, the Colombian and Venezuelan governments could stumble into conflict along a 2,200km border crossed daily by thousands of migrants and exploited by non-state armed and criminal groups. A major Venezuelan troop deployment and Colombia’s invocation of a mutual defence pact have heightened the risk. What should be done? The emergence of the new FARC dissident faction underscores that the Colombian government should redouble efforts to reintegrate former fighters into civilian life. Colombia and Venezuela should work to repair their diplomatic rupture and, in the meantime, establish communication channels to mitigate the risk of misunderstandings over border violence.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Non State Actors, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Venezuela

264. Assessing the Trump team’s Afghanistan peace plan

Author:
Michael Rubin
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The Trump administration’s Afghanistan strategy repeats mistakes made by the Clinton and Obama administrations. The Taliban repeatedly fail to keep diplomatic commitments. Treating the Taliban as independent from Pakistani command-and-control will undercut the utility of any peace deal struck with the Taliban. Diplomatic outreach and Taliban empowerment are directly proportional. The Afghan perception of Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad is colored heavily by a personal history about which many in Washington, DC are unaware.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Taliban, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

265. Negative Emotions in Action – two Examples from the 15th Century Ragusan Diplomacy

Author:
Valentina Šoštarić (Zovko)
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Hiperboreea
Institution:
Balkan History Association
Abstract:
Emotions shouldn't be neglected, but rather taken seriously in order to understand better the complexity of political, and socio-cultural processes that they have generated. The study of emotions in the field of diplomacy is particularly promising, but requires precise definition of the term, explanation of the methodological approach and qualifications concerning the research possibilities that depend upon the nature of the archival sources. The goal of this article is to analyze how words used to signify emotions, which could be signified as negative, shaped practical decisions within certain socio-political and cultural contexts; in other words to demonstrate an active role of emotions in shaping and conducting practical diplomatic decisions. The study aims to underpin the reciprocal relations between emotions and actions illustrated by two case studies from the late medieval Ragusan history. The sources of an interest are preserved in the State archive in Dubrovnik, in the archival seria Lettere di Levante, which, among others, contains the instructions written by the city authorities to their envoys. Despite the fact that the instructions were a product of a long and sober-minded discussions, and therefore they aren't usually abundant with words used to express certain emotions in them, places where those expressions appear are quite significant and can tell us more about how emotions were used as a tool of cognitive processes.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Emotions, and Affect
Political Geography:
Balkans, Italy, and Sicily

266. Building a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind: Is There a Blueprint?

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
70 years ago Bulgaria and the Peope’s Republic of China (PRC) established diplomatic relations. As a small country we are proud to be among the first that recognized the new great state and to have a record of long and constructive relations throughout this period. Despite the differences in the socio-political systems the bilateral relations of our countries are at its peak. The PRC is a key partner of both Bulgaria and the European Union (EU), to which my country belongs. I am personally grateful to the organizers of the high-level symposium for this first visit of mine to understand the sagacity of a Chinese proverb, I paraphraze, it is better to see something once than read about it one hundred times. China proved – and this is a lesson for all, that direct copying of experience and models of development of other countries may lead to nowhere. A methodological lesson in statecraft given by China from the end of the 70s of the last century till nowdays is that thinking big and whole while recognizing the truth in the facts of life, opening to the rest of the world and persistently reforming in a strategically chosen direction is the right way to success. The ability to take the best from the experience and wisdom of the past, sincerely seeking to share the achievements of mankind is a Chinese accomplishment that deserves to be studied by present and future politicians, including in my part of the world.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Bulgaria

267. Italy Joins the Belt and Road Initiative: Context, Interests, and Drivers

Author:
Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In March 2019, Italy and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) signed a broad and comprehensive, albeit not legally binding, Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for Italy to join the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This has triggered a significant debate—in Brussels as well as in Washington—about whether this decision signalled an Italian shift away from its historical pro-European and pro-Atlantic position, to a more nuanced position open to deepening strategic ties with China. The MoU is not definite proof of such a shift, and the Italian government has denied any strategic change. However, Italy is the first major European country, and the first Group of Seven (G7) member, to formalize its participation with the BRI project. As such, this development is particularly remarkable.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

268. Deter and Normalize Relations with North Korea

Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The U.S. is strong and safe—North Korea is weak, deterred by U.S. power, and desperate for economic relief.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Sanctions, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, North Korea, and Korea

269. Removing Obstacles to Women’s Participation at the Peace Table and in Politics

Author:
Pearl Karuhanga Atuhaire and Grace Ndirangu
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:
Women who seek to participate in peace processes and political decision-making face many obstacles. To achieve sustainable peace and development, societies emerging from conflict must remove these obstacles. In so doing, they must recognize and prioritize that women are fully capable of active participation in all political processes. Women’s equal participation in leadership at every level and in every sector is imperative to eliminating gender-based violence, poverty and enabling sustainable peace. Across the globe, women are increasingly assuming political leadership. For example, Ethiopia elected a woman president in 2018, and half of the nation’s parliamentarians are women. In the Republic of Rwanda, women make up 78 percent of the representation in parliament.1 Leadership in politics and peacebuilding are linked. That is, women’s political leadership paves the way for women’s participation in peacebuilding processes and vice versa.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Gender Issues, International Cooperation, Peacekeeping, Women, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

270. Global Image of Pakistan: Significance of Public Diplomacy

Author:
Hafeez Ullah Khan
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This paper is an attempt to examine how is soft power and public diplomacy imperative conditions for Pakistan‟s international stature by examining the effective utilization of public diplomacy of the states like USA, Russia, China and India, public diplomacy of which have got a very significant position at the international stage. Based on an understanding of their Public diplomacy, the author seeks to explore what lessons and strategies should Pakistan take into consideration for the promotion of Pakistan‟s good image at the international front, and how Pakistan can be successful in achieving the positive results. The author has highlighted some serious recommendations as well.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and State
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, South Asia, India, Asia, North America, Punjab, and United States of America