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111. Strategic Insights: Economic Power: Time to Double Down

Author:
Professor John F. Troxell
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
A recent editorial in The New York Times asked the question, “Who threatens America most?” It proceeded to compare recent pronouncements by incoming senior military leaders, the President, the FBI director, and finally the Director of National Intelligence. The major candidates included the usual nation states (Russia, North Korea, and China), a few nonstate terrorist organizations (ISIS and al-Qaeda), and a couple of unattributed capabilities (weapons of mass destruction and cyberattacks). The editorial concluded with the lament: “If officials cannot agree on what the most pressing threats are, how can they develop the right strategies and properly allocate resources?”1 Given the confusion and uncertainty generated by the current strategic environment, compounded by America’s resource-driven retrenchment, it is a fair question. However, I contend that we could pursue a more focused national strategy and do a better job of allocating resources if we focus on the opportunities as opposed to this wide array of threats. The opportunity that beckons is the increasingly interconnected global economy and the integral role played by the United States in both its institutional design and future evolution. A functioning, interconnected global economy will mitigate most, if not all, of the previously mentioned threats, whereas a fractured and disconnected global economy will exacerbate them.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Economics, Governance, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

112. One Hundred Years’ War for the Right to Remain Russia

Author:
A. Ageev
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In the last quarter of a century, it has become clear that neither great powers nor small and average states nor even the United States are happy with international chaos. No wonder, there is a (still latent) desire to move to a new international horizon of confidence and predictable behavior of all subjects of international relations. This is hardly surprising since in the last few years the world has been facing the unpredictable United States, the mightiest of international subjects, which has imposed on mankind a choice between a new world order and a worldwide military catastrophe. Is there a force strong enough to offer an alternative to the slipping into an abyss of hopelessness and initiate adequate measures? Which country except Putin’s Russia can shoulder the burden? Has the world found itself at the threshold of another Cold War which offers no choice but a third world war?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Cold War, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

113. The Role of Donbas Universities in Reconciliation and Prevention of Future Conflicts in Ukraine

Author:
Olena Lennon
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Ukraine’s future depends in part on whether a formula for re-integrating the breakaway Donbas “republics” into the Ukrainian state can be devised. Most treatments of this problem dwell on decentralization and consider the forms that might take in eastern Ukraine. Olena Lennon examines the prospects for reintegration from an original angle. What role, she asks, might higher educational institutions in the Donbas play in that process?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Ukraine

114. Trade and conflict: Ukraine’s trade with Russia in and after 2014

Author:
Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
This paper aims to review existing Ukrainian-Russian trade relations and explore the feasibility of Ukraine’s trade reorientation away from the Russian market, given growing trade tensions.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

115. Arctic Strategy: Trust the Invisible Hand

Author:
Victor Marsh
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
On April 18, 1775, Massachusetts businessman and U.S. revolutionary Paul Revere alerted fellow patriots that British military action against the rebellion in Boston would come by sea rather than by land. The warning that “the [British] regulars are coming” was a verbal intelligence report. It was based on what Revere and his associates had seen with their own eyes. They interpreted the visual data correctly; British military action came the very next day via an initial naval landing of troops that engaged in the first battles of the United States’ Revolutionary War. Intoning the urgency of Mr. Revere, these U.S. analysts and Alaskan politicians seek to inspire a sense of urgency within United States decision-making, warning that the Russians are coming to dominate the north. While taking exhaustive notes on the ambiguous “duality” in Russia’s Arctic policies, the pessimists have nonetheless quickly resolved this open question and pronounced with alarm the fear that Russia is secretly deploying a “new ice curtain,” meaning actions to deny the United States access to the allegedly vital Arctic region.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Diplomacy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Arctic, and United States of America

116. International Coherence in Security Sector Reform

Author:
Alan Bryden
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Calls for greater coherence in the international community's support for security sector reform (SSR) have become commonplace. This reflects frustration at the stovepiped contributions that frequently seem to characterise international SSR engagement. Perhaps more damaging, incoherent approaches may only be the visible symptom of a more profound problem – the inability or unwillingness of the international community to engage collectively with complex political dynamics when designing and implementing SSR programmes. The nexus between difficult SSR politics and incoherent SSR support has multiple dimensions. On the one hand, an SSR process may challenge (or reinforce) inequities in power relations that exclude certain groups and interests. Competing interests therefore provide a sub-text to any reform process. On the other hand, SSR assistance from external actors is itself highly political (and is certainly viewed as such by 'recipients'). This tension is reflected in harmful accusations that SSR represents a Trojan horse for the imposition of foreign values and influence. By failing to acknowledge these political sensitivities in SSR policies and programmes, external interventions can at best have a marginal impact on national security dynamics. This Horizon Paper therefore attempts to provide additional clarity to the concept of coherence and its utility in supporting more effective SSR.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Intelligence, Peacekeeping, and Reform

117. Humanity Considerations Cannot Reduce Wars Hazards Alone: Revitalizing the Concept of Military Necessity

Author:
Yishai Beer
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
The exercise of brute force by militaries, though common, reflects professional incompetency. A well-trained military has an inherent interest in enhancing its operational effectiveness and constraining unnecessary brutality. The law of armed conflict, however, generally ignores the constraining effect of the necessity principle, originally intended to allow only the minimally necessary use of force on the battlefield. Consequently, the prevailing law places the burden of restricting the exercise of brute military force upon humanitarian considerations (and the specific norms derived from them). Humanity alone, however, cannot deliver the goods and substantially reduce war’s hazards. This article challenges the current dichotomy between the two pillars – mistakenly assumed to be polar opposites – of the law of armed conflict: necessity and humanity. It calls for the transformation of the military’s self-imposed professional constraining standards into a revised legal standard of necessity. Though the necessity principle justifies the mere use of lethal force, it should not only facilitate wielding the military sword but also function simultaneously as a shield, protecting combatants and non-combatants alike from excessive brutality. The suggested transformation would bind and restrain the prospective exercisers of excessive force, political and military alike, and restrict the potential damage that might be caused both intentionally (to combatants) and collaterally (to non-combatants). The combined effect of the current changes in war’s pattern and the law of armed conflict, in the military and social thinking of recent decades, and the new strategies available due to the development of new military technologies have all created a new war environment – one that may be ready to leverage the constraining potential of military professionalism into a binding legal standard and norms.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Law, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

118. A U.S.-China Grand Bargain? The Hard Choice between Military Competition and Accommodation

Author:
Charles L. Glaser
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Despite the intense focus on China's rise, the United States has yet to confront the most challenging question posed by this power shift: Should it pursue a strategy of limited geopolitical accommodation to avoid conflict? U.S. policy continues to focus almost entirely on preserving the geopolitical status quo in Northeast Asia. Given the shifting power balance in Asia, however, there are strong theoretical rationales for considering whether significant changes to the status quo could increase U.S. security. A possibility designed to provide the benefits of accommodation while reducing its risks is a grand bargain in which the United States ends its commitment to defend Taiwan and, in turn, China peacefully resolves its maritime disputes in the South China and East China Seas and officially accepts the United States' long-term military security role in East Asia. In broad terms, the United States has three other options—unilateral accommodation, a concert of Asian powers, and the current U.S. rebalance to Asia. Unilateral accommodation and the rebalance have advantages that make the choice a close call, but all things considered, a grand bargain is currently the United States' best bet.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, International Security, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
United States and China

119. Politics of Ethnicity: A Theoretical Perspective

Author:
Rehana Saeed Hashmi and Gulshan Majeed
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Ethnicity and Ethnic Politics is an important Phenomenon of Plural Societies. In developing world, ethnic politics is one of the main reasons of internal instability. Ethnic conflict leads towards ethnic politics which is often conceived as a conflict among ethnic groups. This study has focused on the theoretical frame work of ethnic politics, and the main argument is that state has a central role in developing, escalating and diffusing ethnic conflict that is why ethnic conflict does not only mean conflict among ethnic groups but group’s conflict with state is also the part of ethnic politics. The study highlights various steps towards the development of politics of ethnicity. A life cycle model of ethnic conflict is also drawn to analyze various stages of conflict, and how the intensity of ethnic conflict with state gradually gain momentum. The debate also focuses that ethnic conflict with state should be handled on priority basis. If state fails to resolve conflict, the reformation of nationality of a particular ethnic group creates serious unrest and threat to the process of nation building.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Political Theory, Ethnicity, and State
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir