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71. The geopolitics of water: how the Brahmaputra River could shape India–China security competition

Author:
Neely Haby
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
This report assesses the geopolitical impact of a possible dam at the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra. In particular, it exams the dam as a potential source of coercive leverage China may gain over India. A dam there would create four likely strategic effects: it would very likely consolidate Beijing’s political control over its distant borderlands; it would create the potential for massive flooding as a tool of violence; it may affect human settlement and economic patterns on the Indian side of the border, downstream; and it would give Beijing water and data that it could withhold from India as bargaining leverage in unrelated negotiations. To mitigate those challenges and risks, the report provides three policy recommendations for the Indian Government and its partners in Australia and the US. First, it recommends the establishment of an open-source, publicly available data repository, based on satellite sensing, to disseminate information about the physical impacts of the Great Bend Dam. Second, it recommends that like-minded governments use international legal arguments to pressure Beijing to abide by global norms and conventions. Third, it recommends that the Quad—the informal group comprising Australia, India, Japan and the US—use its humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) guidelines to begin to share information and build capacity for dam-related contingencies.
Topic:
Water, Geopolitics, Rivers, Competition, Regional Security, and Brahmaputra River
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

72. Ice panda: navigating China’s hybrid Antarctic agenda

Author:
Elizabeth Buchanan
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Antarctica is often overlooked in strategic discussions, but its role in geopolitical competition deserves attention. This report assesses the continents importance to Australian security, China’s hybrid Antarctic activity, and the need for Australia to develop a balancing strategy capable of bolstering the Antarctic Treaty and ‘pushing back’ against growing Chinese power in Antarctica. Antarctica offers significant strategic advantages for the People's Republic of China (PRC). Although Beijing's actions in Antarctica may not overtly violate the Antarctic Treaty (AT), they effectively undermine its principles and, by extension, Australia's strategic interests. Currently, the PRC is adeptly navigating the AT System to challenge the status quo without explicitly breaching the treaty. China's domestic policies, which merge civil and military sectors, appear to contravene the spirit of the AT's military prohibitions, even if they have not yet resulted in direct military activity on the continent. This evolving dynamic underscores the pressing need for Australia to safeguard the existing Antarctic status quo. With robust Australian foreign and security prioritization, the AT can counter Beijing's growing ambitions, which may directly impact Australian interests. We must protect and uphold the principles of the AT. With diverse domestic and international priorities, Australia must not neglect Antarctica, as Beijing continues to exploit the strategic gap left by our limited focus. Australia, with its rich history and commitment to Antarctica, must assert its role as an Antarctic claimant and clarify that China's presence is contingent on Australian and other claimants' cooperation. It's time for Australia to lead in Antarctica and protect our strategic interests.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and Antarctica

73. New global (dis)order – about a world that frightens us

Author:
Vedran Džihić
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This report provides an analysis of the shifting global landscape characterized by the dissolution of the post-Cold War normality into a perpetual state of crisis. It examines the intertwining of emotional politics with power dynamics, the escalating competition between democracies and autocracies, and the looming dilemma between war and peace. The report underscores the rise of emotional narratives in shaping geopolitical tensions, the emergence of a bipolar world order between democracies and authoritarian regimes, and the existential threat posed by escalating conflicts. It concludes by urging for a renewed commitment to democratic values and concerted efforts to navigate the turbulent global landscape of 2024.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

74. The New Geopolitical Formation in the Wider Horn of Africa: Consequences for Europe

Author:
Jan Pospisil
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia significantly destabilise the Wider Horn of Africa and impact the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. These conflicts, rooted in fragmented statehood and exacerbated by internal ethnic, regional, and political divisions, threaten regional stability through increased migration and disruptions in the Red Sea. The conflicts are deeply internationalised, involving military engagements from neighbouring countries and attracting global powers due to significant geostrategic stakes. Traditional Western influences are waning. Instead, new actors like China, Russia, and various Gulf States are heavily engaged in the region. For Europe, the instability in the Horn of Africa presents urgent challenges, primarily related to migration, the security of maritime routes, and potential spillover effects in neighbouring regions like Egypt. Addressing these issues requires enhanced political engagement, addressing humanitarian needs, reforming peacekeeping efforts, and strengthening security cooperation. Europe’s response should be robust and coordinated, aiming to mitigate immediate threats and contribute to long-term stability in the region, reflecting the complexity of the intertwined interests and ongoing conflicts.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Political stability, Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

75. Europe's role in the Sahel

Author:
Christine Nissen
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
A few years ago Africa’s Sahel region sat at the top of the EU’s foreign policy and security agenda. European member states were mobilising significant resources to address the security challenges of the region. This changed overnight on the 24th of February 2022 when Putin’s Russia invaded Ukraine and resurrected the spectre of conventional war on the European continent. From that day all Europe’s focus was directed to the Eastern threat, and European presence in the Sahel has since been scaled down. The Russian war in Ukraine is not the only reason why Europe is scaling down ambitions in the Sahel. Indeed, growing anti-Western sentiment amongst Sahelian governments and populations, and increasing resistance to European, and not least French, interference have made it challenging for European countries to stay engaged in the region. The Ukraine War and the European re-focus eastwards is symptomatic of the changing global order, which tells a broader story of European–African relations in crisis. The world is changing – and European governments are struggling to decide how to position themselves within it. In the short term Europe emerges as the primary loser due to its limited readiness to navigate this evolving landscape.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sahel

76. Taiwan Strait’s Echo in Korean Peninsula Security and the US-ROK Alliance

Author:
Yerin Yoon
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In recent years, the geopolitical landscape of East Asia has undergone significant shifts, with the Taiwan Strait emerging as a pivotal point of great power competition and regional instability. This paper delves into the intricate dynamics in this evolving scenario, examining the multifaceted implications of Taiwan contingencies and their ripple effects on the security of the Korean Peninsula and the longstanding US-ROK alliance. This study highlights the need for Korea to build strategic plans for a Taiwan contingency by examining the correlation between plausible scenarios and the security challenges of the Korean Peninsula. This paper explores the broader implications of a Taiwan contingency within the context of great power rivalry and international relations. Moreover, it analyzes specific scenarios related to the Korean Peninsula that could unfold around Taiwan, such as maritime blockades and potential Chinese armed attacks on Taiwanese territory. It then emphasizes the influence of these scenarios on the Korean Peninsula, revealing a complex web of economic security, diplomatic, and military challenges. The article thereafter turns its attention to the US-ROK alliance essential to regional security in East Asia. This analysis examines the strategic ramifications of the relocation of US Forces Korea (USFK) and the possible engagement of the ROK military to assess the potential responses by the US-ROK alliance to the Taiwan crisis. It also highlights how crucial it is to comprehend each of the points of view held by the US and the ROK, underscoring the complex intricacies of the alliance. Finally, the paper proposes strategic policy recommendations to enhance Korea’s role in regional security. This includes strategies for maritime security, military readiness against conventional threats, and the strengthening of trilateral relationships with the US and Japan, providing a proactive roadmap for Korea’s foreign and defense policy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

77. Enhancing the Cooperation between the US and Its Allies in the Mekong Subregion

Author:
Sach Nguyen
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The Mekong subregion is experiencing heightened geopolitical competition between the US and China, representing a clash between the international rules-based order and a China-led order. While the US and its allies advocate for the rules-based order, China’s intentions for its own order in the region are debated. China’s increased presence and influence in the Mekong subregion, particularly through upstream control of the Mekong water, reflect its pursuit of this order. In response, the US and its allies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, have strengthened cooperation with one another to promote a rules-based system. Despite existing coordination, there is potential for further collaboration to enhance their role in mainland Southeast Asia. Stability and prosperity in the Mekong subregion are being challenged. Weakening international norms in governing transboundary waters threaten downstream countries’ security and livelihoods, exacerbated by climate change-induced droughts. China’s growing engagement in the region aims to establish its sphere of influence, primarily through economic development projects like dams and railways, raising concerns over environmental impacts and expanding Chinese influence. Additionally, non-traditional security threats such as the COVID-19 pandemic, cyber security, and human trafficking further complicate the region’s situation. The engagement of the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion is multifaceted, driven by various interests but united in countering China’s growing influence. The US, through initiatives like the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) and later the Mekong-US Partnership, seeks to maintain its relevance and preeminence in the region. Japan, South Korea, and Australia also engage with the subregion, for economic interests and to counterbalance China. Japan, for instance, aims to establish production bases and balance China’s influence through high-standard infrastructure projects. South Korea focuses on economic development and diversification of trade amid US-China tensions, while Australia prioritizes promoting a rules-based order and addressing non-traditional security threats. Despite differences in approach, the US and its allies collaborate through platforms like the Friends of the Mekong and initiatives such as the Trilateral Partnership for Infrastructure Investment in the Indo-Pacific, aimed at countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, challenges remain in realizing these initiatives, particularly in engaging the private sector and ensuring concrete outcomes amidst competing interests and complex negotiations. Recommendations for enhancing cooperation between the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion include strengthening international norms and rules, expanding economic infrastructure projects, focusing on non-traditional security issues, and fostering track 1.5 and track 2 diplomacy to promote mutual understanding and collaboration among all stakeholders, including governments, academia, businesses, and civil society organizations. These efforts, facilitated by the US and its allies, can contribute to a more stable and prosperous Mekong subregion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Geopolitics, International Order, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, United States of America, and Mekong River

78. New Caledonia and French Polynesia: New Opportunities Amid Great Power Competition

Author:
Raihaamana Tevahitua
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
New Caledonia and French Polynesia, like to other Oceanian nations, are gaining heightened significance within the Indo-Pacific framework. Consequently, both non-sovereign territories have improved leverage to assert their priorities in relation to the central French state. Simultaneously, they are increasingly engaging with foreign partners under the guidance of France. This paper offers recommendations for how these territories can expand their influence in this era of Great Power competition.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Geopolitics, and International Competition
Political Geography:
New Caledonia, Indo-Pacific, Oceania, and French Overseas Territories

79. Contemporary China in Anglo-American and Chinese Perspectives: Making Sense of a Rising China

Author:
Batuhan Ay
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
In the book Contemporary China in Anglo-American and Chinese Perspectives: Making Sense of a Rising China, Emre Demir aims to analyze China’s rise by displaying the differences and similarities in scholarly discourse in Western and Chinese scholarship. The book examines a collection of 14 approaches from scholars of mainstream United States (U.S.), critical Western, mainstream Chinese, and critical Chinese approaches and seeks to reveal their relevant power-knowledge nexuses and region-centric characteristics in knowledge production, with a particular focus on the current power structure in knowledge production in Chinese and U.S. societies. Demir indicates that every approach occupies a position within the three-layered structure of knowledge production: core, semi-periphery, and periphery. Currently, the U.S. assumes the core (hegemonic) position within social sciences knowledge production, which enables it to dominate the means of knowledge production and direct the ways in which knowledge is produced. Therefore, the U.S. can globally reproduce its own theories, which it benefits from, under the guise of universal validity. Moreover, Demir advocates the diversification of intellectual knowledge in the social sciences, a human-centric approach instead of a region-centric one, a focus on the colonial histories of societies, and the decolonization of International Relations (IR).
Topic:
International Relations, Hegemony, Geopolitics, and Knowledge Production
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and England

80. The New Cold War Is Sending Tremors through Northeast Asia

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
This dossier looks at how the US-led New Cold War against China is destabilising Northeast Asia, focusing on the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, and Japan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Destabilization, and Post-Cold War
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Taiwan, Asia, Korea, and United States of America