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131. The Impact of Climate and Geopolitical Changes on Russia’s Energy Policies in The Arctic Region

Author:
Ferdi Güçyetmez and Sina Kısacık
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
After the Industrial Revolution, the energy resources under the polar ice sheets became even more important for becoming a global power. Providing the security of this energy, as well as its utilisation, is a very challenging process for countries. However, a new challenge has recently been added to these challenges: The Climate Crisis. In the new global system, new Arctic-centred policies must cover three important issues: Climate, security and energy. Russia has the longest border in the Arctic Circle. Russia’s challenge in the Arctic is not only to extract energy but also to protect it and deliver it safely to ports. Therefore, Russia needs to formulate security policies without ignoring geopolitics and climate, which are of vital importance for its national borders. In this study, Russia’s new energy security will be analysed by considering the effects of climate and geopolitics changes on the Arctic region. The focus will be on valuable minerals and energy transportation from the Arctic region. The research question is: How is Russia adapting its energy security policies in the Arctic region in response to the dual challenges of climate change and geopolitical security, focusing on the extraction and transportation of precious minerals and energy resources?
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia and Arctic

132. China, The United States And Japan In A Changing International Order: Historical Foundations Challenged By The Rise Of China

Author:
Cem Yılmaz
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
This study analyses bilateral relations among People’s Republic of China (China), the United States (US), and Japan by comparing the impacts of historical foundations on the one hand and a prominent contemporary factor, which is the rise of China. The study aims to compare basic historical data and the resilience of these data in the face of a rising China. The relationships among the three actors demonstrate that the historical legacy continues to hold prominence in Chinese perspectives of Japan, while the rise of the actor is prominent in American perspectives of China. Both historical legacy and a rising China factor are dominant in Japanese perceptions of China. The Japanese foreign policy towards China is characterised by a mutual reinforcement of both dimensions, resulting in an overall enhancement of their strength. The study, in this instance, demonstrated that historical parameters become less relevant when a contemporary parameter has the potential to have a major effect on history. The rise of China, which has resulted in a fundamental shift in the international order, and the decline in the importance of the historical dimension in the relationships between the actors under examination are viewed as two phenomena that reinforce one another.
Topic:
History, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

133. Geostrategic Factors, Not Humanitarian Considerations Mold Public Opinion in the West

Author:
Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Analysis of Google searches shows Israel has greater freedom of action than it may imagine in view of the focus on the potential regional ramifications of the conflict between Israel and Iran over the Palestinians and Gaza.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Geopolitics, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

134. China-Taiwan Relations and the EU: How European Soft Power Could Help Reduce Cross-Strait Tensions

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Russia’s war against Ukraine has brought back to the spotlight the question of China’s (officially the People’s Republic of China, PRC) potential attack on Taiwan (officially the Republic of China, ROC). Beijing claims that the island is one of its provinces, whereas the current Taiwanese government maintains that it is already an independent country. A conflict over Taiwan – or even a Chinese blockade of the island – would have immediate economic and political implications for Europe which will likely impose sanctions on the PRC, the EU’s second-largest trading partner.[1] The EU is not a security actor in East Asia, but has some formidable – and unique – soft power assets that could be leveraged to promote dialogue and understanding between China and Taiwan, with the objective of reducing tensions in the area and maintaining the status quo.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, and Asia

135. Aircraft vulnerability to politically motivated Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) in Eastern Europe

Author:
Tegg Westbrook
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Countries in Europe have experienced radio frequency interference from Russian electronic warfare units, affecting navigation systems without discrimination. Interference has been identified as coming from the Russian mainland, Kaliningrad, and in the areas where it is engaged in conflicts abroad, creating serious hazards for aircraft. Previous research has identified the technical vulnerabilities to aviation from radio frequency interference, but it has yet to be contextualised in light of the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Using literature review analysis, the aim of the article is to place the jamming and spoofing threat in the context of ongoing political tensions between Russia and the region and to establish worse-case scenarios based on the former’s motives. Focusing on the threats to aircraft, it finds that the likely motivations are to (1) complement political narratives of Western aggression; (2) to deny service for intimidation, harassment, economic loss, and to portray a dominant Russian cyber influence; and (3) to use spoofing to enable hostage diplomacy via the seizure of people and assets. It argues that reporting mechanisms for aviation risks assumes geographical staticism, which does not correspond adequately to the threat. It also creates arbitrary “predictability” in otherwise unpredictable environments, which could ultimately affect vigilance and due diligence in the areas not considered problematic.
Topic:
International Security, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, and Satellite
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

136. Anti-terrorist cooperation as part of Poland’s geopolitical shift. “Operation Bridge” and the rise of a strategic partnership with the United States

Author:
Tomasz Piotr Kozłowski
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper discusses Poland’s involvement in “Operation Bridge,” which aimed to transport Jewish citizens from the Soviet Union to Israel between 1989 and 1992. The study is based on recently declassified documents from the former intelligence and counterintelligence services, the Foreign Ministry, and the Prime Minister’s Office, supplemented by accounts of policymakers, secret service officers, and militia involved in protecting Soviet Jews during transit operations. The author argues that this operation was not just a humanitarian effort but also had significant geopolitical implications. The newly elected non-communist government under Tadeusz Mazowiecki saw this as a critical move to establish stronger ties with the United States and Israel. The author also highlights how the cooperation between Poland and the United States in intelligence sharing, counterterrorism, and security operations paved the way for Poland’s strategic partnership with the United States and its eventual entry into NATO. The paper contributes significantly to our understanding of the role played by Poland in the post-Cold War era and sheds new light on the development of US–Polish relations.
Topic:
Security, Cold War, Terrorism, Geopolitics, and Counterintelligence
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Poland, and United States of America

137. How external actors seek to influence the Western Balkans?

Author:
Harun Nuhanović
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The Western Balkans, a region with a complex history and significant geopolitical value, finds itself at the crossroads of influence from major external powers—Russia, China, and Turkey. Each of these countries extends its reach through various domains such as economics, culture, religion, politics, and security, exploiting both state and non-state mechanisms to cement their influence. This report delves into the strategies employed by these state actors, highlighting their individual and collective impacts on the strategic landscape of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. The findings reveal how these external influences pose both opportunities and significant risks, shaping the regional dynamics and the future integration of these states into larger international frameworks such as the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, Kosovo, and Western Balkans

138. The Spillover Effect: The Gaza Conflict and Potential Ramifications to the Western Balkans

Author:
Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This report outlines potential security and geopolitical risks for the Western Balkans stemming from the war in Gaza. While none of these security challenges are inevitable, they are possible. Depending on whether the conflict in Gaza continues in its current form or whether it escalates in intensity and number of belligerents, there are at least three potential ramifications for the Western Balkans. The first concerns the potential radicalisation in the local Muslim communities involving anti-Semitism and acts of violence that could disrupt harmony between local religious communities. The second concerns the risk that if the conflict expands to engulf Iran and Hezbollah and potentially other regional actors, there is a risk that this security rivalry between Middle Eastern players like Israel and Iran will spread to the Western Balkans. Thirdly, depending on the geographical scope and duration of the conflict, there is a potentially high risk of a new refugee crisis impacting the region.
Topic:
Security, Radicalization, Geopolitics, Refugees, 2023 Gaza War, and Antisemitism
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Western Balkans

139. Green Industrial Policy: A Holistic Approach

Author:
Ilaria Mazzocco
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In the United States, the rise of the economic-climate agenda and green industrial policy has coincided with growing attention to supply chain resilience, economic security, and a deteriorating U.S.-China relationship. As a consequence, the interaction between trade, geopolitics, domestic economic policy, and climate policy demands a new holistic approach from policymakers and civil society to find more politically sustainable and effective policy solutions. More consideration should be given to the specifics of U.S. climate strategy when it comes to trade and international relations and how to integrate climate strategy with the Inflation Reduction Act and green industrial policy efforts.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Trade, Sustainability, and Green Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

140. The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah

Author:
Seth G. Jones, Daniel Byman, Alexander Palmer, and Riley McCabe
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Although the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has captured the world’s attention, there is a serious risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to a new assessment by CSIS. Since October 7, 2023, there have been over 4,400 rocket, missile, and other stand-off attacks by Israel and Hezbollah combined. Hezbollah has also repeatedly violated UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by deploying forces and firing anti-tank guided missiles and other stand-off weapons against Israel from the zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River, according to CSIS geolocation analysis. The United States needs to increase its diplomatic engagement to prevent what could become a much wider and more violent war in the Middle East.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Security, Counter-terrorism, Geopolitics, Transnational Actors, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon