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102. Russia’s Potential Alliance with Hizbollah: A Strategic Challenge for the EU in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Bernard Siman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- One year on, the debate has been dominated by Israel, Hizbollah and the potential for regional war in the Middle East. An additional credible scenario has been worryingly absent: that in which Hizbollah and Russia cooperate, not necessarily to the exclusion of Iran as a third leg in a tripartite alliance. This scenario combines geography, history and geopolitics to bring Hizbollah and Russia closer together as a force to recon with. This is a possible development in the Southern Neighbourhood and the Levant that the EU needs to take seriously. Missing Russia’s potential move on Hizbollah could be an historic omission. The decapitation of Hizbollah’s chain of command that preceded the ground incursion, and Iran’s feeble reaction to the devastating assault on its Lebanese proxy, have created a new geopolitical vacuum and reality in the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia may spot an opportunity in the misfortunes of Hizbollah and move on a weakened prey. Will Russia’s direct influence return to Beirut for the first time since the 1770s when it occupied the city for a few months following the naval defeat of the Ottoman fleet at the battle of Cheshme? It is a distinct possibility, especially given Iran’s lukewarm military response, and one that the EU, and member states, must be prepared to deal with, if not pre-empt and prevent.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Eastern Mediterranean
103. Geopolitics and Geography: A Realigned EU Strategy for Stability in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Bernard Siman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The new EU Commission should commence its geopolitical thinking by acknowledging that geography is not kind to those who ignore her. The new European Parliament has the unique opportunity to become perhaps the first geopolitical parliament through a similar process. States, political leaders and societies ignore their geographic realities at their peril. Perceptions of location, distance and neighbourhoods can be dangerously distorted when they drift too far off from actual geographic realities. Digital technology, ease of air travel (bypassing the unpleasant geographic realities on the ground), combined with over three decades of peace in Europe, and 50 years in the Middle East, have created the distorted perceptions that somehow Israel’s and Ukraine’s neighbourhood was liberal Europe. These collective perceptions, untethered from their geographic realities, eclipsed perhaps the fact that both have neighbours with whom they have been at differing degrees of long-simmering conflicts. In reality, however, Israel and its neighbours have not succeeded at resolving the conflicts on its very borders, betraying the perception of peace. It is as if those neighbours with whom Israel has been in conflict had disappeared.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Geography
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
104. A Safe and Sovereign Europe in a Changing Global Context
- Author:
- Lila Djait
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from European Union (EU) institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The second round of the foresight workshops and working dinners reflected on ‘A Safe and Sovereign Europe in a Changing Global Context’. In the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, the EU is undergoing a transformation in its global positioning within the multipolar world order. The perception of the EU as a strongly integrated regional entity in an era of heightened power politics necessitates a more assertive, unified stance in global affairs, as well as a reinforced coordination of the internal and external dimension of EU policies. Yet, translating this perception into a cohesive, integrated approach to global affairs has proven challenging for its Member States. Strengthening EU sovereignty becomes crucial in this altered geopolitical reality posing a paradox: Member States need to transfer some sovereignty to the EU to effectively safeguard their national sovereignty. This is particularly relevant in areas like defence and migration, where national approaches fall short.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, European Union, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belgium
105. India and The EU in 2024: Where to Next?
- Author:
- Jan Luykx
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- In this multi-election-year both the Indian Government and the European Parliament will soon face their respective voters. Relations between the EU and India, two powerful actors on the world stage, will hardly be a theme of much importance in these elections. With the present geopolitical turmoil in the world as background, the question arises whether India and the EU should enhance their strategic cooperation to a more significant level. Russia’s war on Ukraine is posing a real threat to peace and security for the rest of Europe and for the Eurasian continent. With China, Russia’s partner against ‘the West’, extending its influence in many parts of the world, while the rest of the world is waiting, often with apprehension, the outcome of the US elections, insecurity and uncertainty have become dominant feelings in many capitals. In this context, should the EU-political level not take note of the potential benefits of closer relations with a more ambitious India?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, India, and Asia-Pacific
106. The Politics of Food and the Myth of the Self-Reliant Refugee in Uganda
- Author:
- Nina Soudan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Changing geopolitical dynamics and a widespread ‘donor reset’ have resulted in reduced refugee assistance funding, compelling World Food Programme to make significant cuts to food assistance. This reduction has coincided with a strategic and theoretical shift towards refugee self-reliance in northern Uganda. While this responsibilisation of refugees has been globally praised as progressive and beneficial, refugees’ settlement experiences have questioned the sustainability of this approach, for whom it works, and under what conditions. This brief argues that WFP’s premature reduction of assistance, driven by the promotion of self-reliance, ultimately pushes refugees into greater hardship, while simultaneously highlighting the flaws in Uganda’s refugee model.
- Topic:
- Food Security, Geopolitics, Refugees, Donors, and World Food Program (WFP)
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
107. Europe as a Geopolitical Actor: Reforming the EU’s Narrative in North Africa
- Author:
- Zine Labidine Ghebouli
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- This paper will examine the gap between the promises and self-perception of the EU and its member states in North Africa, and the realities of implemented policies. It is true that the founding principle of the EU, i.e., to promote peace and prosperity, has never been more pivotal in policy frameworks. However, Europe on the level of both the EU and its member states is confronting complex post-COVID dynamics such as major life changes, further weakening of vulnerable economies, and deeper sociopolitical fractures. Added to this dangerous mix of challenges, the invasion of Ukraine is not only a violation of the latter’s territorial integrity and sovereignty but is also a symptom of an overall weakened security order both in Europe and abroad (De Clerck-Sachsse, 2022). At a time of multiple crises, it is imperative to reassess Europe’s partnerships in North Africa to develop a new narrative that is based on realistic advantages and limitations.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Reform, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North Africa
108. Mask Off: Implications of the EU’s “Geopolitical Awakening” for its Relations with the MENA Region
- Author:
- Johannes Späth
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced European foreign policy-makers to reassess their view of international relations and reconceptualise the European Union (EU)’s approach to it. A broad consensus has emerged that the foreign policy of the EU needs to become more geopolitical. A sentiment echoed and championed by Ursula von der Leyen, who, since assuming the role of President of the European Commission in December 2019, has actively advocated for a more assertive and strategic EU presence on the global stage (Bayer, 2019). The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, has labelled these developments as “the awakening of geopolitical Europe” (Borrell, 2022). He further insisted that a more geopolitical European outlook on the world should not be temporary but should become the “new normal” (Borrell, 2022). This suggests a fundamental and lasting shift in the EU’s approach to external relations. Given the ambiguity of the term ‘geopolitics’, which has at least five different meanings (Kundani, 2023), many questions about the EU’s new normal remain to be answered: What does a more geopolitical foreign policy entail? What would be the implications of such a new approach regarding the European Neighbourhood, in particular the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region? And how can such an approach be reconciled with the EU’s liberal principles? This paper aims to assess these questions from a realist perspective. The article proceeds as follows. The first part examines the different conceptualisations of geopolitics and assesses which of them EU policy-makers refer to. The second part examines whether a more geopolitical EU foreign policy towards the MENA region can be seen as a paradigm shift or rather a continuation of existing policies. The third part considers how the “geopolitical awakening” can be reconciled with the EU’s liberal principles. The paper concludes by drawing on the findings to develop concrete recommendations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
109. The Migration Agreements in Euro-Mediterranean Relations for a Geopolitical Europe
- Author:
- Ezgi Irgil
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The discussion about the implications of an objective like strategic autonomy has primarily circled the question, could the Europeans defend themselves against a Russian offensive without US support? (Barrie et al., 2019; Meijer & Brooks, 2021). This scenario is a critical one, especially considering the long-term implications of the Russia-Ukraine war. Nevertheless, it presents a narrow view of European security interests shaped only by challenges from its eastern flank. As a result, the debate tends to emphasize the need to invest in European ground and air capabilities for a Cold War-like scenario of military operations on the continent. This paper does not discount the demands of the Russian challenge on Europe’s military posture, but it offers a different perspective by looking at an under-researched topic: the concurrent need to secure European interests in the maritime domain vis-à-vis threats originating from the area going from the Mediterranean to the Strait of Hormuz.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, Geopolitics, and Strategic Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Mediterranean
110. Grand Strategy: Shield of the republic
- Author:
- Christopher McCallion
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Grand strategy is a state’s theory about how to provide for its own security. Leaders must decide how to best translate scarce means into political objectives. Limited resources and the high stakes of national survival force leaders to prioritize. Military power is dependent on wealth, industry, geographical endowments, population size, and effective domestic institutions. The various conditions in which states find themselves help motivate and constrain the grand strategy formulated by their leaders. The United States is still the most powerful, secure, and prosperous country in the world, with a favorable geographic position and many internal advantages. U.S. grand strategy has historically been concerned with preventing the rise of a regional hegemon in Eurasia by maintaining the balance of power. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States became the only great power in the world. Unfortunately, it squandered the “unipolar moment” by pursuing a costly and counterproductive grand strategy of “liberal hegemony,” which has left it overextended. The United States’ secure geostrategic position and the improbability of a Eurasian hegemon allows it to adopt a grand strategy of restraint. This shift will help the United States to preserve its power, minimize risks, and adapt to the rise of new great powers. This strategy requires the United States to adopt a more rigorous definition of its vital interests and to shift to its allies the main burden of defending themselves.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, and Unipolarity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America