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291. The State of the European Union 2024: Integration vs. Nationalism

Author:
Diego López Garrido
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
In the new institutional cycle, the European Union is facing unprecedented challenges. This report studies and analyses some of the most outstanding aspects such as competitiveness and reindustrialisation in the light of competition from the USA and China; the transition to a decarbonised Europe; the need to defensively strengthen the Union and its foreign action; the migratory issue; the European social pillar or the rule of law. All this comes within a complex geopolitical context that helps to approach structural reforms to renewed institutions such as the European Parliament and the European Commission, where more conservative positions have thrived.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Industrialization, Economic Competition, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

292. The Gaza War and Europe: Can the Continent Play a Positive Role in The Middle East?

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Europe borders the Middle East, and the continent cannot insulate itself from events in this region. Its options, however, are limited: Europe is hardly a strategic actor with the political will and requisite capabilities to intervene. Moreover, the Middle East is not easily amenable to foreign intervention. Nevertheless, Europe cannot ignore developments that impact its national security and if it concentrates its efforts, it may have a modest input in ensuring that pro-stability forces gain the upper hand.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

293. Iranian Subversive Efforts in Jordan: A Strategic Threat Requiring a Robust Response

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Against the background of Hamas' ongoing war with Israel (and the expressions of support for it among Palestinians and Islamists in Jordan), the Iranian regime has intensified its efforts to subvert the Hashemite monarchy. The arrests in March 2024 of Iranian agents involved in smuggling arms to Muslim Brotherhood elements in Jordan are part of a campaign to counter the role of Tehran in bringing both drugs and weapons over the Syrian and Iraqi borders into Jordan. Tensions rose further over Jordan's supportive role in foiling the Iranian attack on Israel on 14 April 2024. For the Iranian regime, the destabilization of Jordan is a vital precursor for the strategic goal of turning Judea and Samaria into "another Gaza", as Supreme Leader 'Ali Khamenei suggested back in 2014: hence the importance of American and Israeli support for Jordan. The stability of the Kingdom (and thus the need to reduce economic and social strains) is a vital interest of both Israel and the West.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islamism, Muslim Brotherhood, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Jordan

294. Italy’s Migration Policies Amidst Climate Change: An Assessment

Author:
Chiara Scissa
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since the 1990s, Italy has progressively become a country of destination for migration movements especially from Africa and South Asia. In 2022, Italy received a total of 84,289 claims for international protection. The main nationalities of origin were Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, Tunisia and Nigeria.[1] The causes of migration are multiple and complex, and could refer to political, economic, social and/or cultural grounds. Yet, and not without hurdles, another relevant factor that contributes to driving people to move to a different country has started to emerge: climate change (and its related impacts on disasters, environmental degradation and other environmental factors). Although the nexus between climate change and migration is complex to define and to identify, it is relevant to note that many protection-seekers in Italy come from countries most exposed to climate change that, in certain cases, may have played a role either in directly shaping migration movements or in exacerbating more proximate causes of migration, such as worsening conflicts over scarce resources, violence, poverty or discrimination dynamics in the aftermath of a disaster.[2] Against this backdrop, in the following, I will first examine how the climate change-migration nexus has been approached by the Italian legal system, to then move to the Meloni government’s political strategy in the field of migration governance, followed by an assessment of their respective efficacy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Migration
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Italy

295. The Tragedy behind Israel’s Ostensible Triumph

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The killing by Israel of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the Islamist Shia militia that controls South Lebanon, may well go down in history as the harbinger of a seismic change in the balance of power in the Levant and arguably the whole Middle East. Iran’s ensuing retaliatory missile strike makes war with Israel all but inevitable, though its magnitude remains uncertain. Part of it will be fought with missiles, rockets and drones flying across the sky between the two arch-enemies. Part of it will be fought across the region, possibly wherever Iran’s axis of resistance – the network of pro-Iran armed groups spanning Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Yemen is based. Most of it will likely be fought in Lebanon, home to Hezbollah, whose demise – or even severe weakening – would result in Iran’s influence in the Levant being curtailed. While Israel’s onslaught on Hezbollah has tilted the balance of power heavily in its favour, it is too early to make predictions – after all, the Middle East has disrupted expectations time and time again in the past. It is still possible though to make some considerations and discuss a few open questions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Proxy Groups, and Hassan Nasrallah
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America

296. The Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime: A Strategic Blow to Russia

Author:
Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, one that Middle East experts will undoubtedly scrutinise for its broader implications. Yet, for those studying Russia, the situation holds a clear message: the downfall of Syria’s dictator is a strategic blow for Moscow.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Russia, Middle East, and Syria

297. China’s security relations with Africa in the 21st century

Author:
Monika Magdalena Krukowska
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The paper examines China’s increasing security interests in Africa. It seeks to understand the nature and scope of Chinese engagement in peace and security issues on the continent based on its engagement in international and domestic (African) politics. Through literature analysis and logical reasoning, the author intends to define the implications of China’s new role as a security provider. The paper is based on desk research using primary and secondary data and statistical and comparative analysis of official documents, academic research, and media sources. The methods include literature analysis, logical reasoning, statistical research, comparative analysis, and the inductive method to build general theorems. The paper analyses aspects of China’s security engagement on the African continent: its participation in the United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, small arms exports, and Beijing’s sharing of technology with African partners. China’s engagement in Africa’s security helps to advance its vital economic and political interests, with limited impact on African security. Key lessons for African partners are offered. The last decades have seen an extraordinary increase in China’s economic and political ties with Africa. Security cooperation followed massive Chinese investments and thousands of Chinese nationals working on the continent. China’s security engagement in Africa protects Beijing’s interests regarding access to resources, markets, political influence, and social credibility. It has little to do with a benevolent will to help Africa deal with instability or economic underdevelopment. African partners must make necessary efforts to avoid further dependence on China.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Security, Peacekeeping, Cybersecurity, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

298. Kosovo in Russian Foreign Policy- Discourse Fostering Instability in Kosovo and Countering Euro-Atlantic Integration

Author:
Ramadan Ilazi, Ardit Orana, and Jeta Loshaj
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Russian influence and interests in the Western Balkans are primarily centered around Serbia. According to a 2024 survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), for Kosovar citizens, after Serbia (83%), Russia (8%) is seen as the main threat to the country, while 87% say that the country’s foreign policy should only be pro-European Union and pro-West, and 59% say that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is completely unjustified. Main takeaways from this paper include: Russia deploys state-controlled media (RT, Sputnik) and partners with Iranian outlets to spread narratives portraying Kosovo as a failed state, full of instability. Russia capitalizes on deep cultural, religious, and political ties with Serbia to maintain influence in the Balkans, utilizing ties with the the Serbian Orthodox Church and with Serbian elites to the detriment of Kosovo. There are indications that Russia had prior knowledge of or involvement in the Banjska terrorist attack in Kosovo, aimed at escalating tensions. By stirring instability in Kosovo, Russia aims to divert Western attention and resources away from Ukraine, creating a multi-front challenge for NATO and the EU.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Strategic Interests, Instability, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Serbia, and Western Balkans

299. How external actors seek to influence the Western Balkans?

Author:
Harun Nuhanović
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The Western Balkans, a region with a complex history and significant geopolitical value, finds itself at the crossroads of influence from major external powers—Russia, China, and Turkey. Each of these countries extends its reach through various domains such as economics, culture, religion, politics, and security, exploiting both state and non-state mechanisms to cement their influence. This report delves into the strategies employed by these state actors, highlighting their individual and collective impacts on the strategic landscape of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. The findings reveal how these external influences pose both opportunities and significant risks, shaping the regional dynamics and the future integration of these states into larger international frameworks such as the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, Kosovo, and Western Balkans

300. Surviving the War: Russia-Western Balkan Ties After the War in Ukraine

Author:
Maksim Samorukov
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 pushed Europe into a new era of instability. The fundamentals of the continent’s political and economic order are shifting as Russia’s brutal methods of war undermine the prospects of the slightest cooperation between Moscow and European states. Decades-old trade links have been severed, transport corridors rerouted, and people-to-people contacts have become more scarce than ever. Europe is reshaping its security architecture around Russia as the main threat, while Moscow frames its aggression against Ukraine as an existential defensive war with a duplicitous West. The only European region that stands out in this process of growing mutual alienation is the Western Balkans. More than a year into the war, Russia’s relations with several Balkan states appear to have undergone little change. Serbia is eagerly continuing with energy deals with Gazprom, Bosnian Serb leaders frequent Moscow on official visits, and some leading Montenegrin parties are sticking to pro-Russian slogans. It would appear that time stands still in the Western Balkans, with petty local grievances overriding major global developments This publication was produced with the support of the Open Society Foundations (OSF). Responsibility for the content of this publication belongs solely to Belgrade Centre for Security Policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Trade, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Balkans