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282. Virtual Briefing Series | End of an era: the fall of the Assad regime
- Author:
- Ryan Crocker and Charles Lister
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Following more than a year of turmoil and transformative changes reshaping the Middle East, the region witnessed another shock with the downfall of the Assad family’s 54-year rule over Syria last weekend. The rapid collapse was triggered by a lightning rebel offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former affiliate of al-Qaeda. This on-the-record briefing featured Amb. (ret.) Ryan Crocker, career diplomat with the US Foreign Service. His previous appointments included US Ambassador to Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Kuwait, Afghanistan, and Lebanon; as well as Charles Lister, Senior Fellow and Director of MEI’s Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs. Our experts discussed what the fall of Bashar al-Assad means for Syria and the region, the international community’s assessment of the Syrian conflict, what this development portends for Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” in the Levant, the influence of regional powers in Syria, and the future of US policy toward the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
283. Theorising the Hedging Strategy: National Interests, Objectives, and Mixed Foreign Policy Instruments
- Author:
- Iván Gonzalez-Pujol
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Hedging is a comprehensive foreign policy strategy that mixes competitive and cooperative approaches and is used to manage competing national interests during conditions of uncertainty over the future distribution of power. However, the literature is characterised by a lack of consensus on the central features of hedging, which leads to contradictions in how the concept of hedging is applied. First, this paper assesses the definition of hedging, identifies three rival approaches, and links the risks and opportunities of hedging with uncertainty over the future international distribution of power. Second, it discusses how the various interpretations of hedging have inspired different analytical models. Finally, it explains hedging as a theoretically intermediate and analytically mixed strategy. These claims are supported by studying the Asia-Pacific region, where hedging has become the dominant strategy for coping with the uncertainty surrounding the future distribution of power stemming from the rise of China.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, Hedging, Uncertainty, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia-Pacific
284. Examining Relationships Among Turkey, Israel, and the United States in Terms of Interest Similarity
- Author:
- Zuhal Çalık Topuz and Jonathan Michael Spector
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Interest similarity is defined as the affinity of national interests in global affairs. This research aims to examine the interest similarity among Turkey, Israel, and the US. Interest similarity of countries has been examined by taking into account the factors of (a) alliance portfolio, (b) MID data, and (c) UNGA voting records. Quantitative data regarding these factors have been analyzed with correlation and regression models. The findings show that the interest similarities among these three countries have a statistically significant correlation. This research also examines the relationships between the three states to better understand which factors affect their interest similarity, and how. Thus, this study contributes to the political science and international relations literature by analyzing quantitative data while examining the interest similarity among Turkey, Israel, and the US.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America
285. How the EU can – and should – enhance its security and global competitiveness
- Author:
- Stefania Benaglia, Steven Blockmans, Michael Emerson, Tinatin Akhvlediani, Ceren Ergenc, and Fanny Sauvignon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- To achieve the objectives of security and competitiveness the EU will absolutely need to prioritise its enlargement policy, defence strategy and global partnerships over the coming years to 2030 and beyond. To make the EU fit for 30+ members, it will have to start by reforming its enlargement methodology towards a ‘staged accession’ procedure and move towards more qualified majority voting, alongside adapting its budget to accommodate new members. Accession negotiations will need to have ironclad security commitments and the EU should assist candidates in shoring up their own defences, as well as beefing up its own Member States’ military capacities. The EU also has no choice but to become a security provider for the entire continent. To strengthen its overall global competitiveness, the EU should boost Europe’s defence industry, ramp up the production of much-needed capabilities, tackle procurement issues and harmonise technical and operational standards. Collaboration with regional partners through the Global Gateway is also important but the EU shouldn’t position itself as an exclusive alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. It must also actively engage all parties in the Middle East peace process to counterbalance China’s influence and (re)assert itself as a key regional player. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) will test the EU’s ability to maintain its global relevance and uphold its values.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, Competition, and Enlargement
- Political Geography:
- Europe
286. The Berlin Pulse 2024/2025 (full issue)
- Author:
- Hanno Pevkur, Stephanie Zonszein, Majed Al-Ansari, Halyna Yanchenko, and Boris Pistorius
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Körber-Stiftung
- Abstract:
- Welcome to the eight’s edition of The Berlin Pulse! As every year, we compare international expectations of Germany with public opinion in Germany. But this year’s edition is special, as it comes off the press with one part of our representative survey conducted right after the polls have closed in the United States and the German coalition collapsed. Thanks to our editors Julia Ganter and Jonathan Lehrer, this issue underlines that Germany must decide what image it wants to project and what international expectations it wants to meet. Bangladeshi analyst Shafqat Munir and Russian opposition politician Andrei Pivovarov want Germany to live up to its moral aspirations and support the revival of democratic values in their countries. Israeli journalist Mairav Zonszein argues that precisely Germany’s reputation as a defender of democratic norms complicates its arms support to Israel, calling on Berlin to ensure its weapons are not used in human rights violations. Meanwhile, Ukrainian politican Halyna Yanchenko urges Germany to supply more arms to help end Russia’s illegal war of aggression. These expectations illustrate that Germany’s international standing as a partner in upholding international law, human rights and democracy is currently at stake. Berlin faces a complex balancing act, striving to avoid perceptions of selectively applying international law. Estonia’s Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur argues that half-hearted actions will not suffice – or as he puts it, ʻDo we want Ukraine to survive, or do we want it to win?ʼ The German population has a strong opinion on many of these issues. While 57 per cent of German respondents still want Berlin to support Ukraine militarily only 25 per cent want military support for Israel. Despite these dilemmas, it is encouraging that 46 per cent of German respondents want their country to be more engaged on international crises. It is the highest level since we started surveying this in 2017 and it shows that, after three years of war in Ukraine and a year of war in the Middle East, Germans want change and want to see Germany driving change. Thanks to our partner, the Pew Research Center, we know that Germans and Americans have trusted each other to make a change in international politics over the past four years. But our new figures, conducted after the US election, show that this partnership may be threatened: 79 per cent of Germans think President Donald Trump will damage transatlantic relations. But only 35 per cent of Germans think that Germany should step in to lead the West. It is time to decide, Germany. What kind of international player do we want to be, in which areas do we want to go all in? The following pages can help us make difficult decisions in difficult times.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Taliban, Polls, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, India, Germany, and United States of America
287. Man on a Wire: A Way Forward for Iran’s New President
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Islamic Republic’s ninth president assumes office with an unenviable inheritance of domestic discontent, regional turmoil and poor relations with the West. He should work to bridge the state-society gap, while outside powers should test his administration’s willingness to shift from an escalatory posture.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Leadership, Domestic Politics, Presidency, and Masoud Pezeshkian
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
288. Informe África 2024: El pacto migratorio y de asilo europeo
- Author:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- A las puertas de las las decisivas elecciones decisivas al Parlamento Europeo de junio de 2024, Europa mira hoy con miedo a la inmigración. La cuestión de la inmigración (más de 286.000 llegadas irregulares a Europa en 2023 según la OIM) se ha convertido en un asunto central para la política europea: en un instrumento para ganar o perder elecciones. El ascenso de partidos de ultraderecha o de corte nacional-populista en importantes países receptores de migrantes mayoritariamente de origen africano, como Italia (caso Lampedusa: 153.000 llegadas en 2023) o España (Canarias: 40.000), se debe en parte a una hábil explotación del miedo a este fenómeno. Gobiernos, administraciones, o medios de comunicación han ido construyendo discursos de una “Europa fortaleza” frente a África, que tienen éxito entre amplios sectores sociales, en especial las clases medias y trabajadoras de los países europeos, a pesar de que, según Naciones Unidas, solo alrededor de una cuarta parte de los africanos que emigran lo hacen a suelo europeo.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Asylum
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
289. Informe Iberoamérica 2024: El desafío de la seguridad para las democracias latinoamericanas
- Author:
- Lucía Dammert, Thiago Rodrigues, Dorly Castañeda, Erika Rodríguez Pinzón, and Matías Mongan Marcó
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- Las crisis de inseguridad que vive América Latina se ha convertido en una amenaza real para nuestras democracias. La inseguridad ciudadana, exacerbada por el crimen organizado, el avance del narcotráfico y la violencia endémica no solo destruye vidas humanas y bienestar, sino que también erosiona la confianza en el Estado y sus instituciones. La impunidad, la corrupción y la ineficacia en la administración de la justicia crean un círculo vicioso que debilita las bases mismas de la democracia y de nuestro contrato social. Nuestro Informe Iberoamérica 2024 hace un repaso de varios asuntos centrales relativos a la actual crisis de seguridad ciudadana, incluyendo las transformaciones en el aparato policial, la economía política del narcotráfico, o el crecimiento del ciberdelito, y casos concretos como Ecuador o la frontera entre Colombia y Venezuela. España y Europa no son ajenas a este fenómeno y han empezado a tender puentes con la región para cooperar en múltiples aspectos. Con las próximas Cumbres Iberoamericana y UE-CELAC en el horizonte, invitamos a responsables políticos, expertos y agentes sociales a debatir y buscar soluciones conjuntas para Iberoamérica sobre este asunto fundamental.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Corruption, Democracy, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
290. Autonomía estratégica abierta europea y ciclo electoral: Opciones frente a EEUU y China
- Author:
- Raquel Carretero, Lisa Garcia Bedolla, Vicente Palacio, Agueda Parra, and Ana Olmedo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- La UE debe contar con capacidades propias que le permitan reducir sus dependencias frente a EEUU y China. Pero Europa afronta dificultades e incertidumbres derivadas de factores políticos y económicos internos a Europa y EEUU. Dos grandes procesos electorales en 2024 (elecciones al Parlamento Europeo el 6-9 de junio, y elecciones presidenciales en EEUU el 5 noviembre) tendrán importantes implicaciones para la llamada “autonomía estratégica europea abierta”. Teniendo cuenta este contexto político, este documento aborda varios aspectos. Primero, las dinámicas de continuidad y de cambio del nuevo ciclo político. Segundo, las tendencias actuales de las relaciones UE-EEUU en tres ámbitos principales: tecnológico-digital; política energética y nueva política industrial del Pacto Verde; y defensa y seguridad. Tercero, la necesidad de la UE de resetear y fortalecer las relaciones económicas con Beijing. Cuarto, las posibles opciones de la UE y escenarios respecto a EEUU y China. Finalmente, algunas propuestas para avanzar en la dirección de una relación estratégica más equilibrada y “abierta” respecto a EEUU, China, y el Sur Global.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Economy, and Strategic Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe