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252. Undoing a Hybrid Regime: What Lessons Can Be Extracted from the Case of North Macedonia?
- Author:
- Nazif Mandaci
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This study primarily aims to draw attention to the role of the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) in North Macedonia’s1 transition from a hybrid regime to a standard democracy from 2015 to the present. The stability of the country has been of paramount importance for the Western interests, thus the EU and US have continuously supported successive governments to uphold the de-facto powersharing system that prevailed since its independence in the early 1990s. By employing Levitsky and Way’s theoretical framework of linkage and leverage, this study aims to elucidate the decisive roles played by the EU and the US in cultivating the conditions necessitated for North Macedonia’s gradual democratic transition after 2015. To do this it addresses political developments in North Macedonia, discusses the problems that aroused during this transition period, which are inherited in a lack of democratic culture and widespread corruption, and finally, suggests that as the Macedonia example demonstrated, EU support and tutelage is critical during such challenging transitions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Corruption, Democratization, European Union, and Hybrid Regime
- Political Geography:
- Europe, United States of America, North Macedonia, and Western Balkans
253. Amérique latine. L'année politique 2023
- Author:
- David Recondo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
- Abstract:
- Amérique latine. L’Année politique 2023 est une publication de l’Observatoire politique de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (Opalc) du CERI-Sciences Po. Il prolonge la démarche du site www.sciencespo.fr/opalc en offrant des clés de compréhension d’un continent en proie à des transformations profondes.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Crime, Democratization, Politics, Governance, Urbanization, European Union, Multilateralism, Regional Integration, Memory, and Social Policy
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
254. Regards sur l’Eurasie. L’année politique 2023
- Author:
- Anne De Tinguy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
- Abstract:
- Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stak. This volume is devoted to the war in Ukraine
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Organization, Migration, Politics, History, Diaspora, European Union, Economy, Post-Soviet Space, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia
255. EU-ASEAN Political Relations in the Light of Values and Norms of the International Liberal Order
- Author:
- Joanna Starzyk-Sulejewska
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The article aims to analyse the significance of liberal norms and values in the development of political relations between the EU and ASEAN, an issue which has been only selectively analysed in academic literature. At the same time, the topic of the article fits into a broader landscape of issues associated with the development of relations between international intergovernmental organisations in contemporary international relations, only partially studied in Polish and international literature to date. Considering the essential framework of classic constructivism, as well as significant contributions added by critical constructivism, the article formulates a research hypothesis whereby the European Union and ASEAN are organisations which, while recognising the importance of liberal values and norms, take a different approach to their promotion and protection. The European Union, which attempted to act towards ASEAN as an interpreter and diffuser of the aforementioned values and norms in the 1990s, adopted a pragmatic approach over time, in response to ASEAN’s stance and actions, limiting its role in this respect and taking regional conditions and dependencies into account. In order to verify this hypothesis, three research questions were formulated, namely: What is the place of liberal norms and values in the EU and ASEAN policy documents? Is the respect and protection of liberal norms and values an important element declared in mutual relations? How do both sides approach the implementation of liberal norms and values in practice in selected cases? This article is structured around these issues and discusses the significance of liberal norms and values in EU and ASEAN policy documents, the place and role of liberal norms and values in documents underpinning EUASEAN relations and in EU documents formulated towards ASEAN and the Southeast Asian region and also provides an analysis of EU and ASEAN policy towards Myanmar.
- Topic:
- International Relations, European Union, Liberalism, Norms, ASEAN, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia-Pacific
256. Protection of Geographical Indications in Trade Agreements: Is it worth it?
- Author:
- Charlotte Emlinger and Karine Latouche
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- This paper estimates the impact of the inclusion of GIs in bilateral agreements on French exports of foodstuffs. We rely on a unique dataset of firms and products concerned by Geographical Indications (GIs) in the French agri-food industry (excluding wine) for 2012-2019, merged with firm-product-destination level data from French Customs and the French National Institute of Statistics. Controlling for market and firm characteristics, we compare the exports of GI firms with those of non-GI firms before and after the signing of the 13 agreements (25 destination countries) that include a list of GIs to be protected. We show that the protection of GIs in EU RTA helps French firms to reach new markets and to sell their products at higher price, but it depends on the level of protection provided by the agreement.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe
257. AI Policy in EU Illiberal Democracies: The Experience in Hungary and Poland
- Author:
- Filip Konopczyński
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the emergence of AI policies in Hungary and Poland under illiberal governments, and highlights their potential social and political consequences, particularly for democratic values and civil and fundamental rights. It focuses on the adoption of AI in the public sector, encompassing research and development, public administration, law enforcement, migration, and economic policy. In their AI policies, both countries’ governments have prioritized industry demands and subordination to the expectations of large foreign corporations (which is inconsistent with their digital sovereignty rhetoric). Meanwhile, they have neglected societal consultations and the needs of the scientific community. The AI policies implemented in Hungary and Poland by the Fidesz and Law and Justice (PiS) parties) have been characterized, respectively, by centralization and fragmentation, with varying outcomes. The AI systems deployed do not safeguard citizens’ rights as the political takeover of the justice system and partisan control of law enforcement have undermined redress mechanisms and limited legal protection from AI-related violations. The increasing use of AI in election campaigns, coupled with the lack of democratic oversight, increases the risk of mass disinformation campaigns and electoral manipulation in both countries. The cases of Hungary and Poland highlight some key implications for democracy and human rights in the EU where illiberal actors control AI policies and governance and disregard these values. The new EU AI Act may offer some protection for the rule of law and individual rights, but its potential loopholes could allow the unlawful deployment of AI systems in vital areas. AI policies in both countries have reflected their governments’ illiberal tendencies, expanding their control over citizens and curtailing democratic processes. The centralized governance raises concerns about the potential for mass surveillance and censorship, while the lack of transparency and inclusivity in AI policymaking could further marginalize minority groups and vulnerable populations. However, there are key steps that the EU can take to address these issues.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Domestic Politics, Artificial Intelligence, and Illiberal Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, and Hungary
258. Prospects for EU-Türkiye Foreign Policy Cooperation at a Time of Geopolitical Turbulence
- Author:
- Ian Lesser, Kadri Tastan, Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, and Paul T. Levin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- Over more than six decades, the relationship between Türkiye and the EU has undergone a profound transformation. Just 20 years ago, Türkiye had real aspirations to join the EU. Today, that prospect is a distant memory, and political relations between the two parties are at an all-time low. Despite the prevailing challenges and areas of divergent interests, Türkiye-EU relations continue to exert a significant influence on domestic and foreign policies across much of Europe, particularly with regard to trade, border management, and migration. While the United States may view ties with Türkiye as discretionary at times, for both Türkiye and the EU, engagement remains unavoidable. Furthermore, against a backdrop of geopolitical turmoil and regional instability, the imperative for robust dialogue and collaboration between the EU and Türkiye has never been more pressing. With Türkiye‘s accession process stalled and geopolitical tensions on the rise, the need to reinvigorate and strengthen diplomatic ties has become increasingly evident. From the enduring conflicts in Syria and Iraq to the evolving dynamics surrounding Russia‘s aggression towards Ukraine, the prevailing geopolitical context necessitates a coordinated approach between the two parties. This political report examines the potential for collaboration between Türkiye and the EU, defining the essential preconditions for such cooperation and elucidating its mutual benefits. It also assesses the obstacles that stand in the way of such cooperation and proposes a framework for foreign policy dialogue between Türkiye and the EU, incorporating the views of Türkiye, the EU, and the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
259. Refugees and Return: Resolving Ukraine's Human Capital Crisis
- Author:
- Markus Ziener and Dariia Mykhailyshyna
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- Ukraine is facing a human capital crisis of enormous proportions. Here, Dariia Mykhailyshyna of the Center for Economic Strategy in Kyiv presents the findings of three waves of surveys among Ukrainian refugees about their intentions to return to Ukraine or remain in their host countries. The report contains some recommendations for encouraging Ukrainians to return. Millions of its citizens fled the country after Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. To share best practices and generate possible solutions, the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), along with its partners—the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ), hosted a conference titled “Toward a Skilled Workforce: Rebuilding Ukraine’s Human Capital” in Berlin on April 25–26, 2024. To set the stage, Dariia Mykhailyshyna of the Center for Economic Strategy in Kyiv presented the findings of three waves of surveys among Ukrainian refugees. Those findings, as well as some recommendations, are detailed in this report.
- Topic:
- Reconstruction, European Union, Refugees, and Human Capital
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
260. Rebuild, Decarbonize, and Integrate: Ukraine, the EU, and the Road to a Net-Zero Energy Sector
- Author:
- Jacob Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- More than half of Ukraine’s power production capacity has been damaged by Russia since February 2022. Reconstruction is already underway, but to meet EU accession requirements, Ukraine will have to rapidly decarbonize as it rebuilds. As the frontline situation points to a longer war than was projected early on, uncertainties about Ukraine’s long-term economic path and prospects have inevitably increased. At the same time, noticeable political progress has been made given the EU’s agreement to start negotiations for full Ukrainian membership. This step provides the fighting Ukrainian people with a long-term perspective and a destination point as a prosperous, democratic, European market economy. Anchoring Ukraine’s economic future in the EU will have transformative implications for the country’s economy, not least its energy sector. That sector, which is still exposed to Russian military attacks, is now compelled to assimilate into the rapidly decarbonizing EU. More than half of Ukraine’s power production capacity has been damaged by Russia since February 2022 or is situated on territory now controlled by Russia. The Net Zero World Initiative (2023) estimated that 43% of nuclear, 68% of coal-fired, and 33% of combined heat and power generation was lost to the war as of mid-2023. Despite continuing attacks, more than two gigawatts (GW) of electricity production capacity were restored during 2023. Reconstruction of the Ukrainian energy sector is already underway despite the war. With it, the country’s energy transformation has begun. Yet, in March 2024, Russia returned to large- scale saturation missile attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including its large hydropower plants and thermal power stations, inflicting further long-term damage. Putin seeks to exploit the apparent drop in Ukrainian air defense efficiency as Western supplies of air interceptor missiles have grown scarcer. Military risk consequently continues to cloud the outlook for Ukraine’s energy production. It also reduces the interest of foreign and domestic investors in committing resources to the sector. Uncertainty plagues the prospects for Western public support for Ukraine, too. Despite the recent passage of a funding package, future US funding will remain hostage to domestic politics. In Europe, various veto players—led by Hungary—as well as other internal divisions pose an ongoing political challenge to the EU’s financial support for Kyiv. The scarcity of public and private investment funding sources for Ukraine stands in stark contrast to the level of ambition for the energy- sector transition inherent in Ukraine’s EU accession process. One of the major energy- sector challenges facing Ukraine will be the expectation in Brussels that Ukraine will either enter fully into the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) or implement an ETS-aligned national carbon-pricing system of similar ambition. It will not be possible for the Ukrainian economy to be granted a prolonged transition period here, and—for instance—enjoy free carbon-emission credits for affected industries, when these same industries will have been partially or fully phased out in the rest of the EU at the time of Ukraine’s EU accession. While the EU ETS price is currently adjusting to the new post-2022 energy shock demand level (for example, prices have declined so far in 2024 to around €60–65/ton), the ETS auction price forward curve slopes upward. This indicates that carbon market participants continue to believe that EU carbon prices will rise during Ukraine’s EU accession process. Adapting the economy to the EU’s carbon price level will require urgent action on the part of the Ukrainian government as it prepares the long-term National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) that will lay out the country’s energy strategy for the rest of the 2020s. Certainly, Ukraine’s Environmental Protection Minister, Ruslan Strilets, displayed the necessary ambition when he spoke after the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai in late 2023. He reiterated earlier government statements from 2021 and committed Ukraine to launching a pilot emissions trading system in 2025 with a full launch in 2026. This would enable Ukraine’s entry into the ETS, and thus avoid negative effects of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for Ukrainian exports. This is a timetable that necessitates immediate and sizable climate investments in Ukraine. Ukraine has further committed itself in recent months to a significant scaling up of its already large nuclear power-generation capacity. The Ukrainian government has signed memoranda of understanding aiming at the construction of up to nine new power units using Westinghouse AP1000 technology. Just as the accelerated introduction of carbon pricing in Ukraine will be costly, construction of new nuclear power units, even if located at one of Ukraine’s existing nuclear plant facilities, will require large sums of capital investment upfront. The issue of upfront costs will similarly weigh on the broader issue of reconstruction of Ukraine, as more energy- efficient buildings will only gradually earn back the higher building and materials costs through lower long-term energy consumption. Ukraine must be applauded for aiming to seize the opportunity to rebuild its energy sector and integrate it with the EU as quickly as possible. This follows the recommendations of several expert groups, including GMF’s earlier (2023) report on this issue, which called for rapid Ukrainian adoption of carbon pricing and highlighted the need to phase in EU-level building codes expeditiously. This paper will focus on the implications for both Ukraine and the EU of the Ukrainian government’s recent energy-sector choices. What do these plans require institutionally and financially to succeed, and how will they alter not only the Ukrainian but the entire EU energy sector in the process?
- Topic:
- Climate Change, European Union, Decarbonization, Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Net Zero
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine