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171. The Challenges of Normalizing Relations Between Belgrade and Pristina: Implications of the “Agreement on the Path to Normalization”

Author:
Mihajlo Vucic and Dragan Djukanovic
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The article analyzes the process of normalizing relations between Belgrade and Pristina after adopting the Agreement on the Path to Normalization. The analytical framework of neorealism was used to explain that the normalization process was accelerated due to the war crisis in Eastern Europe. The international legal aspects of the agreement were scrutinized, based on the method of content analysis and comparative studies, to argue that the agreement is a legally binding treaty between two sides that respect each other’s international legal personality. The authors concluded that the European Union and the United States attempted to create new momentum in the decade-long and rather unsuccessful process by adopting the Agreement and the Annex on implementation. Thus, these documents were put in the context of relations between Belgrade and Pristina and broader European and regional levels of complex relations. In addition, the analysis concluded that the documents serve as new impulses in normalization as a continuous legal formalization of relations between the two sides based on international legal rules.
Topic:
International Law, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

172. Dissecting the Political Landscape of War-Torn Ukraine: Between Internal Challenges and External Threats

Author:
Aram Terzyan
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This paper explores the political landscape of war-torn Ukraine, focusing on the country’s core domestic problems. The war in Ukraine has led to a significant deterioration of Ukraine’s political landscape. While victory on the battlefield is Ukraine’s utmost priority, escalating internal problems pose additional challenges. With Ukraine having obtained EU candidate status, these problems have moved to a new level on the EU’s membership agenda. The most urgent of these is endemic corruption, which has gained fresh momentum during the war and has put foreign aid at risk. As the costs of the war grow, international pressure on the Ukrainian authorities to show better results increases. Accountability and transparency should become the guiding principles of the reconstruction and recovery processes to maintain Western support and ensure effective postwar reconstruction.
Topic:
Corruption, Reconstruction, Minorities, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and De-Oligarchization
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

173. Control of Irregular Migration and Suppression of People Smuggling on the Western Balkan Route

Author:
Bojan Jankovic, Sasa Markovic, and Aleksandar Ivanov
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The subject of this paper is irregular migration and modern models of preventing the smuggling of migrants on the part of the Western Balkan route through the Republic of Serbia. The goal is to show how the new strategic approach of the Serbian police in this area can give excellent results, that the application of modern methods of policing and technical means are aimed at preventing the smuggling of migrants, i.e., the illegal movement and transport of migrants across the state border and state territory to go to countries of the European Union. Based on the conducted research, the authors have drawn certain conclusions: 1) effectiveness, efficiency, and economy in the area of suppression of irregular migration can be achieved by applying an adequate criminal strategy, 2) the new strategic approach led to the discovery and arrest of a large number of people smugglers and the discovery of illegal firearms, 3) the use of modern technical means, coordinated, joint work of different police units and management from a single center by a strategic level manager directly in charge of combating irregular migration and human smuggling in a particular area (territory) which is estimated to be a hotspot of criminal activity, is a prerequisite for success.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Borders, Police, Smuggling, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

174. Beyond Traditional Boundaries: From State-Centric Diplomacy to More Participatory Approaches for a Sustainable Future in the Western Balkans

Author:
Elira Luli and Mirela Metushaj
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The contemporary era has witnessed a significant evolution in diplomacy, transitioning from traditional state-led approaches to more open, multilateral methods and channels. This study evaluates the effectiveness and suitability of the new diplomatic disciplines, particularly in the Western Balkans region, which grapples with numerous structural challenges, ethnic and political divisions, and external interference. The influence of traditional state-centric diplomacy in this region necessitates a shift towards a more participatory, multi-stakeholder approach to promoting positive peace and cooperation. This reframing of diplomacy emphasizes the emergence of regionalism and multilateralism through multi-track diplomacy, involving private individuals, non-governmental organizations, societies, and engaged citizens to foster understanding through dialogue, cooperation, and deeper interaction. The analysis highlights the influence of innovative diplomatic channels interlinked and entrenched through a capillary diplomacy framework essential for regional application while exploring the constraints of traditional methods. It advocates for fresh diplomatic strategies and collaborative initiatives in the Western Balkans through a win-win formula and a participatory model based on multi-track diplomacy – repurposed and redesigned to advance the reconciliation process, rapprochement, and raise public awareness through effective communication in line with the EU integration goals and advancements.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

175. Paying Off Populism: How Regional Policies Affect Voting Behavior

Author:
Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper shows that regional policies can decrease populist support. We focus on the “development objective” (Objective-1) of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), meant to support lagging-behind regions. For causal inference, we exploit three sources of quasi-exogenous variation in a Regression-Discontinuity-Design (RDD), a Difference-in- Differences framework (DiD), and with matching techniques. Using NUTS3-level panel data on the outcomes of elections to the EU parliament, observed over the period 1999-2019, we consistently find that Objective-1 transfers reduces the vote share of right-fringe parties by about 2.5 pp. Left-fringe party support is not affected. Complementary analyses of individual-level survey data from the Eurobarometer show that the European Regional Policy increases trust in democratic institutions and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:
Political Economy, European Union, Populism, Regional Integration, Currency, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

176. Paying Off Populism: EU-Regionalpolitik verringert Unterstützung populistischer Parteien

Author:
Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
How to break the populist wave? With the elections to the European Parliament ahead, and the Presidential Elections in the US looming, this question bothers policymakers in many Western democracies. Our study shows that regional policies effectively decrease populist support. Specifically, EU Regional Policy investing into the development of lagging-behind regions decreases the vote share obtained by right-fringe populist parties by 15–20 percent. Moreover, regional policy investments increase trust in democratic institutions, and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:
Political Economy, European Union, Populism, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

177. Foul Play? On the Scale and Scope of Industrial Subsidies in China

Author:
Frank Bickenbach, Dirk Dohse, Rolf Langhammer, and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
China makes extensive use of subsidies in order to take a leading role on the global markets in the green technology sectors of electric vehicles, wind turbines and railway rolling stock. According to DiPippo et al. (2022) and recent OECD studies, the industrial subsidies in China are at least three to four times or even up to nine times higher than in the major EU and OECD countries. According to a very conservative estimate, industrial subsidies in China amounted to around EUR 221 billion or 1.73% of Chinese GDP in 2019. According to recent data of 2022, direct government subsidies for some of the dominant Chinese manufacturers of green technology products had also increased significantly - the electric car manufacturer BYD alone received EUR 2.1 billion. The authors point out that Chinese companies are benefiting from further support measures, including subsidized inputs, preferential access to critical raw materials, forced technology transfers, the strategic use of public procurement and the preferential treatment of domestic firms in administrative procedures. The authors recommend the EU to use its anti-subsidy proceeding against BEV imports from China to enter into negotiations with the Chinese government and persuade it to abolish public support measures that are particularly harmful to the EU.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Business, Renewable Energy, Industry, Subsidies, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:
China and Europe

178. Build Carbon Removal Reserve to Secure Future of EU Emissions Trading

Author:
Wilfried Rickels, Mathias Fridahl, Roland Rothenstein, and Felix Schenuit
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
• A carbon central bank (CCB) that translates carbon removals into allowances would transform the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) from a fiat allowance to a gold standard system, ensuring unchanged net emissions on the path to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. • Meeting such expectations would require a CCB with a clear commitment to a net-zero GHG target, but also with the capacity to manage the market on the path to that target. • This requires a strong institutional framework, which could be achieved by integrating the CCB into the European Central Bank (ECB), building on its reputation and capacity. • Given the long lead time to set up such an institution, the European Commission should already take the first steps to fulfil the other requirement, namely building up a large carbon removal certificate (CRC) reserve, which would provide the CCB with the credibility to stabilize the market in the future. • To fill the CRC reserve, the EU should emulate the US approach by immediately initiating resultbased carbon removal procurement as a first key step of a sequential approach to integrated carbon removal into climate policy. • This could be achieved by developing a centralized procurement program, supporting existing procurement programs, such as Sweden’s or Denmark’s, and incentivizing additional EU member states to initiate procurement. • An important prerequisite for this is the ability to bank CRCs that are not yet eligible for compliance with near-term EU climate targets and use them in later crediting periods.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero, and Carbon Central Bank
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

179. EU-China Trade Relations: Where Do We Stand, Where Should We Go?

Author:
Alexander Sandkamp
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
• In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s share in European trade has fallen continuously. Nevertheless, the country remains the EU’s largest source of imports (20.5 percent in 2023) and its third largest export destination (8.7 percent). • This apparent dominance of China is put into perspective when incorporating intra-EU trade. For example, Germany – Europe’s largest economy – sent 6.1 percent of its ex-ports to China, but 55 percent to EU members states. For imports, the Chinese and Euro-pean shares are 11.5 percent and 52.7 percent, respectively. • Decoupling the EU from China (i.e. almost eliminating bilateral trade) would permanent-ly reduce European real income by 0.8 percent in the long-run. In terms of gross domes-tic product in 2023, the EU would forego 136 billion EUR of value added every year. Short-term effects are likely to be stronger. • China dominates global production of important products such as laptops and mobile phones as well as raw materials including Germanium and Gallium that are critical for the green energy transition. A trade disruption might thus both delay the energy transi-tion and increase its costs. • To reduce specific dependencies, the EU should intensify its efforts to diversify procure-ment by increasing the attractiveness of alternative suppliers. Finding the courage to move forward in the negotiation of free trade agreements with potential strategic part-ners such as Australia and the Mercosur countries would strengthen the EU’s geopolitical position and increase prosperity among partners.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Geoeconomics, and Decoupling
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Germany

180. Nigerien Law 2015-36: How a New Narrative in the Fight Against Smugglers Affects the Right to Leave a Country

Author:
Sarah Isabel Pfeiffer
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
In 2015, the Republic of the Niger adopted an anti-migrant smuggling law (Law 2015-36) with direct involvement of the European Union (EU). Since then, concerns have been raised that this law constitutes a de facto travel ban for anyone moving northwards from Niger. Rather than addressing the involvement of the EU, this article will focus on the direct obligations of Niger, including those set by regional human rights agreements, as the country where the so-called cooperative migration control takes place. People on the move towards Libya will be a special focus as the most affected by the Nigerien law. First, the Nigerien law and its provisions will be described, in order to then assess whether the law and its application infringe the human right to leave any country including one’s own. Drawing from the findings of non-governmental organizations and the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of Migrants, this article argues that Law 2015- 36 renders it impossible for non-Nigerien nationals to leave the country without risking their life and safety. Thus, Law 2015-36 infringes the right to leave. The third part explores possible justifications for the law with a focus on the interests of people on the move, the interests of bordering States, and national interests. It finds that Law 2015-36 is disproportionate and, in fact, impairs the essence of the right to leave, resulting in an unjustified interference. The concluding fourth part contains recommendations for possible amendments to the law.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Migration, European Union, Smuggling, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Nigeria