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62. Kosovo: What Can Go Wrong?
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer and Yll Bajraktari
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- At the end of the NATO/Yugoslavia war almost eight years ago, the Albanian-majority Serbian province of Kosovo was removed from Serbia's governance and placed temporarily under a United Nations protectorate, administered by the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Last summer, UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari was tasked by the Security Council with resolving the question of Kosovo's future status, with support from U.S. and European Union envoys (Frank Wisner and Stefan Lehne respectively). Ahtisaari's effort is now drawing to a close. He has delivered to both Pristina and Belgrade a plan that explicitly allows a great deal of protection for Serbs and their religious monuments in Kosovo but implicitly ends Belgrade's sovereignty. His plan opens the prospect of a sovereign and independent Kosovo under continuing international supervision. It is anticipated that Ahtisaari will take his plan, with some revisions, to the UN Security Council this month. This USIPeace Briefing discusses potential drivers of conflict in Kosovo during the status decision and in the period thereafter. These drivers of conflict arise from the international community, the Kosovo Albanians, Serbia and the Kosovo Serbs. They have the potential not only to make Kosovo dysfunctional but also to destabilize the region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, United Nations, and War
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans
63. Reverse Balkanisation? Trade Integration in South-East Europe
- Author:
- David Kernohan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Recent research from the World Bank and elsewhere suggests that openness to trade was a vital ingredient in the transition of the former Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the EU in May 2004. Current EU association agreements in South East Europe indicate that future enlargements may need to accommodate the remaining former Yugoslav Republics as well as the existing candidate countries. This paper examines persistent concerns that trade openness in South East Europe generally, and the former Yugoslav Republics in particular, is much less advanced than it was for the former CEECs in the mid to late 1990s. In particular we examine the issue of whether the present network of bilateral trade arrangements put in place under the Stability Pact has had much effect in boosting trade integration and whether trade within the region is currently at or below its potential. Given the small size of many of the countries in the region, we find that trade patterns remain problematic. In some cases they are smaller than might be expected but in several cases there is an overdependence on trade with old Yugoslav neighbours. In view of this, we consider that current plans to extend the Stability Pact matrix of bilateral trade agreements into a pan-regional trade association are likely to be inadequate. A better option, and one more likely to have a more immediate effect, would be to extend the present Customs Union with Turkey to include trade with the entire South East European zone of countries linked to the EU.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Balkans
64. Sub-regional SALW Collection Seminar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
- Abstract:
- Government, NGO and International Organisation representatives from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the UN Administered Territory of Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Montenegro participated in a sub-regional SALW (Weapons) Collection Seminar in Budva, Montenegro from 12 - 13 July 2006. The objective of the seminar was to discuss 'best practices' and share operational experience of SALW Collection activities within South Eastern Europe, in order to assist the Government of Montenegro in planning a possible SALW Collection process later this year.
- Topic:
- Government, Non-Governmental Organization, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, Albania, and Croatia
65. Transatlantic Transformation: Building a NATO-EU Security Architecture
- Author:
- David C. Gompert, Jan M. Lodal, Leslie S. Lebl, Walter B. Slocombe, and Frances G. Burwell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since 1989, the security environment facing the United States and its European allies has changed beyond recognition. The Soviet Union has disintegrated, as has the division of Europe between East and West, and new threats have arisen. The disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s demonstrated that instability and war emerging from failing states could affect the peace and security of Europe. After 2001, global terrorism became the priority threat, especially when linked with the prospect of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia
66. VISA POLICIES IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE: A HINDRANCE OR A STEPPING STONE TO EUROPEAN INTEGRATION?
- Author:
- Martin Baldwin-Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- South Eastern Europe (SEE) has been under great pressure from the European Union (EU) to modernize and improve its border management, while simultaneously trying to facilitate cross-border flows and good neighborly relations in the region. The forthcoming accession to the EU of two countries from the region, Bulgaria and Romania, and recently opened negotiations for the accession of two more, Croatia and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, have the potential to damage both cross-border flows and regional stability. One of the principal factors influencing this potential is the requirement for acceding countries to implement the Schengen regime – in particular, the so-called “black list” of countries whose nationals require visas to enter the Schengen area. At this time, from the Balkan region only Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania are not on the “black list”.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Balkans, Romania, Macedonia, and Croatia
67. UN-led Strategies for Media and Communications in Conflict Prevention and Peace Building
- Author:
- Bent Nørby Bonde
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Media have contributed significantly to the escalation of violent conflicts, but also have a strong potential for contributing to peace building and conflict transformation. The sooner the first steps are taken towards changing the existing media the cheaper and more efficient this process will become. The need for boosting the rapid deployment is evident.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, Peace Studies, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Yugoslavia
68. Kosovo: Ethnic Nationalism at Its Territorial Worst
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer and Yll Bajraktari
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The international community\'s military and financial investments in the Balkans over the past fifteen years have led to substantial improvements in most of the territories of the former Yugoslavia. This progress will be put at risk if talks on Kosovo\'s status lead to de facto ethnoterritorial separation, with Serbs governed on their own territory by Belgrade without reference to Pristina. Partition, or something approaching it, could trigger another wave of violence, mass displacement of civilians, and instability in multiethnic states of the region. The international community has failed so far to reintegrate Serbs into Kosovo. Freedom of movement is insufficient, Serbs returning to their homes in Albanian-majority areas are minimal, Kosovo\'s governing institutions lack Serb representation, and Belgrade has tightened its grip on Serbs living in the north and in enclaves elsewhere. Serbia aims to govern the Serbs of Kosovo directly from Belgrade on clearly defined territory and without reference to Pristina. This is precisely the kind of ethnoterritorial separation that will cause trouble throughout the region. The Kosovo Albanian leadership has failed to improve the living conditions of Serbs living in Albanian-majority areas. Hardliners among Kosovo Albanians would also like to see ethnoterritorial separation, as it would offer them a chance to expel the remaining Kosovo Serbs south of the Ibar River and rid themselves of a “Trojan horse.” If the status talks lead to ethnoterritorial separation in Kosovo, serious instability could affect southern Serbia (Presevo Valley), western Macedonia, and Bosnia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania
69. Border Management in the Kosovo-Southern Serbia-fYR Macedonia Vortex: a Local Perspective
- Author:
- Henry Bolton
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The impositions of firstly, the international border between the fYR Macedonia and Yugoslavia in 1992, and secondly the conversion of Kosovo's Administrative Boundary Line (the ABL), between the province of Kosovo and the Republic of Serbia, into a de-facto border in 1999, have had significant impacts on the social and economic lives of the predominantly ethnic Albanian border communities of Kosovo, Serbia and fYR Macedonia within the GPKT (Gjilan/Gnjilane-Presevo-Kumanovo-Trgoviste) micro-region. The situation in the past, whereby the people of the micro-region could travel and interact freely, whether socially or commercially, has changed. Now people wishing to cross from one side of the GPKT micro-region to another, say Gjilan/Gnjiilane to Kumanovo, must cross what are, in effect, two policed and guarded borders, complete with passport checks and customs inspections.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Macedonia
70. A Special Part of Europe: Nation, State and Religion among Orthodox Slavs
- Author:
- Biljana Vankovska and Håkan Wiberg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The paper studies how nation, state and religion – in particular: churches – are related among Orthodox South Slavs: Bulgarians, Serbs, Macedonians and Montenegrins. The close relations between (self-conceived) nations and churches go back to the Ottoman Empire, and seem to have been strengthened by the conflicts in Former Yugoslavia since 1990. The close relation between state and nation go back to how the Ottoman empire was dissolved and have also been strengthened by the same conflicts, even though all states proclaim themselves as non- discriminatory in this respect. The close relation between church and state also has long historical roots, but is more ambiguous today, with elements of competition as well as cooperation – and the latter is seen by many as having gone too far under communism. It is notable that where there are attempts to stabilise a separate identity – in Macedonia and Montenegro – establishing separate churches is a part of this on par with defining separate languages, rewriting history, etc. and the churches are seen as important national symbols even among quite secularised groups; and the same is true for the resistance against separation from the Serbian Orthodox Church.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Montenegro