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1. Serbia: Maintaining Peace in the Presevo Valley

Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Southern Serbia's Albanian-majority Presevo Valley is one of the rare conflict resolution success stories in the former Yugoslavia. Outwardly, it is increasingly normal, with no major incidents in over three years. Yet, tensions linger: massive unemployment is still the single largest problem but the shadow of Kosovo's future status darkens the political landscape. How Kosovo's final status is determined in the next months will have a profound impact. If formal partition or large-scale violence accompanies independence, the peace could unravel; in a worst case scenario, ethnic cleansing in southern Serbia would be accompanied by significant, cross-boundary, two-way refugee flows. All parties – local Albanian politicians, the Serbian government and the international community – need to work with greater urgency on developing the region's economy and ensuring that developments in Kosovo do not disrupt its peaceful progress.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

2. Serbia's New Government: Turning from Europe

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Serbia finally has a new government but one that is deeply divided between pro-Western and nationalist forces. Facing two difficult issues–Kosovo status and cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)–its choice is between moving towards European integration or on to a more isolationist path. The government's composition, deep mistrust among many of its members and the parliament's nationalist majority suggest it will follow the second option. Pro-Western forces have suffered a significant setback, the government is vulnerable to manipulation by the security services and oligarchs, and the system of divided responsibility for the security services renders unlikely serious cooperation with the ICTY, especially the arrests of Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic. Although Kosovo independence could destabilise the government, it may surprise and last far longer and prove more stable than expected. The West should prepare for Serbia turning increasingly away from Europe and towards Moscow.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Moscow, and Serbia

3. Reverse Balkanisation? Trade Integration in South-East Europe

Author:
David Kernohan
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Recent research from the World Bank and elsewhere suggests that openness to trade was a vital ingredient in the transition of the former Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the EU in May 2004. Current EU association agreements in South East Europe indicate that future enlargements may need to accommodate the remaining former Yugoslav Republics as well as the existing candidate countries. This paper examines persistent concerns that trade openness in South East Europe generally, and the former Yugoslav Republics in particular, is much less advanced than it was for the former CEECs in the mid to late 1990s. In particular we examine the issue of whether the present network of bilateral trade arrangements put in place under the Stability Pact has had much effect in boosting trade integration and whether trade within the region is currently at or below its potential. Given the small size of many of the countries in the region, we find that trade patterns remain problematic. In some cases they are smaller than might be expected but in several cases there is an overdependence on trade with old Yugoslav neighbours. In view of this, we consider that current plans to extend the Stability Pact matrix of bilateral trade agreements into a pan-regional trade association are likely to be inadequate. A better option, and one more likely to have a more immediate effect, would be to extend the present Customs Union with Turkey to include trade with the entire South East European zone of countries linked to the EU.
Topic:
International Relations and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

4. VISA POLICIES IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE: A HINDRANCE OR A STEPPING STONE TO EUROPEAN INTEGRATION?

Author:
Martin Baldwin-Edwards
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
South Eastern Europe (SEE) has been under great pressure from the European Union (EU) to modernize and improve its border management, while simultaneously trying to facilitate cross-border flows and good neighborly relations in the region. The forthcoming accession to the EU of two countries from the region, Bulgaria and Romania, and recently opened negotiations for the accession of two more, Croatia and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, have the potential to damage both cross-border flows and regional stability. One of the principal factors influencing this potential is the requirement for acceding countries to implement the Schengen regime – in particular, the so-called “black list” of countries whose nationals require visas to enter the Schengen area. At this time, from the Balkan region only Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania are not on the “black list”.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Balkans, Romania, Macedonia, and Croatia

5. Kosovo: Ethnic Nationalism at Its Territorial Worst

Author:
Daniel Serwer and Yll Bajraktari
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The international community\'s military and financial investments in the Balkans over the past fifteen years have led to substantial improvements in most of the territories of the former Yugoslavia. This progress will be put at risk if talks on Kosovo\'s status lead to de facto ethnoterritorial separation, with Serbs governed on their own territory by Belgrade without reference to Pristina. Partition, or something approaching it, could trigger another wave of violence, mass displacement of civilians, and instability in multiethnic states of the region. The international community has failed so far to reintegrate Serbs into Kosovo. Freedom of movement is insufficient, Serbs returning to their homes in Albanian-majority areas are minimal, Kosovo\'s governing institutions lack Serb representation, and Belgrade has tightened its grip on Serbs living in the north and in enclaves elsewhere. Serbia aims to govern the Serbs of Kosovo directly from Belgrade on clearly defined territory and without reference to Pristina. This is precisely the kind of ethnoterritorial separation that will cause trouble throughout the region. The Kosovo Albanian leadership has failed to improve the living conditions of Serbs living in Albanian-majority areas. Hardliners among Kosovo Albanians would also like to see ethnoterritorial separation, as it would offer them a chance to expel the remaining Kosovo Serbs south of the Ibar River and rid themselves of a “Trojan horse.” If the status talks lead to ethnoterritorial separation in Kosovo, serious instability could affect southern Serbia (Presevo Valley), western Macedonia, and Bosnia.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

6. Border Management in the Kosovo-Southern Serbia-fYR Macedonia Vortex: a Local Perspective

Author:
Henry Bolton
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The impositions of firstly, the international border between the fYR Macedonia and Yugoslavia in 1992, and secondly the conversion of Kosovo's Administrative Boundary Line (the ABL), between the province of Kosovo and the Republic of Serbia, into a de-facto border in 1999, have had significant impacts on the social and economic lives of the predominantly ethnic Albanian border communities of Kosovo, Serbia and fYR Macedonia within the GPKT (Gjilan/Gnjilane-Presevo-Kumanovo-Trgoviste) micro-region. The situation in the past, whereby the people of the micro-region could travel and interact freely, whether socially or commercially, has changed. Now people wishing to cross from one side of the GPKT micro-region to another, say Gjilan/Gnjiilane to Kumanovo, must cross what are, in effect, two policed and guarded borders, complete with passport checks and customs inspections.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Macedonia

7. U.S. Policy Toward the Former Yugoslavia

Author:
Steven E. Meyer
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
As long as the Cold War framed the international arena, relations between the United States and Yugoslavia were—for the most part—fairly clear and predictable. Both sides played their assigned roles well in the larger East-West drama. For the U.S., Yugoslavia—after Tito and Stalin split in 1948—was the useful, even reliable, strategically-placed, communist antagonist to the Soviet Union. Certainly, Washington complained at times about Yugoslavia's preference for nonalignment and lamented the fact that it was not part of the Western alliance. The fact that Yugoslavia was indeed a communist state that Moscow could not control, however, more than compensated for these “short comings.” As a reward, the U.S. courted Tito, provided economic aid, and paid virtually no attention to how he ran the country—even his brutal rise to power after World War II was of little consequence.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia

8. CERI: Les relations civilo-militaires en Croatie, 1990-2001

Author:
Jean-François Morel and Renéo Lukic
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
In contrast to most of Eastern and Central European countries that underwent their post-communist transition peacefully, Croatia had to undergo its transition during wartime. The outbreak of the Serbo-Croatian war in Spring 1991 forced Croatia to build rapidly an army to protect its territory. However, at this time, Croatia was an emerging democracy and after the European Community recognised its independence on January 15, 1992, the parliamentary institutions were unable to exert their authority over the Croatian army (Hrvatska vojska, HV). The Croatian President, Franjo Tudjman, and the political party he presided, the HDZ, dominated the HV by way of political penetration. Tudjman, who led Croatia to independence, benefited from a triple legitimacy (political, constitutional and charismatic) that allowed him to exert his power over the HV, much the same as the legitimacy Josip Broz-Tito enjoyed over the Yugoslav National Army in Communist Yugoslavia. The result is that the civil-military regime in Croatia after 1990 suffered from a democratic deficit. After the death of President Franjo Tudjman in December 1999 and the change of majority in the January-February 2000 elections, the new Croatian leadership, particularly President Stjepan Mesic, tried to establish democratic control over the armed forces. However, this aim clashed with the opposition of the Ministry of Defense and of numerous officers still committed to the HDZ. For these reasons, a democratic civil-military regime in Croatia is not yet a reality. However, Croatia has made some progress toward the establishment of a democratic civil-military regime. By trying to join some international organizations (NATO), or by being compelled to cooperate with others (International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, ICTY), Croatia is now in the process of interiorizing the norms concerning the civilian and democratic control of the armed forces upon which these organizations are based. Being a member of the Partnership for Peace (PfP), and wishing to join as soon as possible NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP), Croatia is obliged to move in this direction.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Croatia

9. Belgrade's Lagging Reform: Cause for International Concern

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For more than a decade Serbia was the driving force behind much of the instability in the Balkans. Following the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic on 5 October 2000, it was hoped that Serbia would promptly reform the external policies of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) that had caused such disruption. To date, these hopes have been substantially disappointed.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

10. The Third Yugoslavia, 1992 - 2001

Author:
Sabrina P. Ramet
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The Milosevic regime was a classic example of what has been called a “democradura,” i.e., a system which combined some of the mechanisms of democracy (with the result that Milosevic's Socialists were, at one point, forced to enter into a coalition with Seselj's Radicals, in order to form a government) with many overtly authoritarian features (among which one might mention the constriction of press freedom, the use of the police against the political opposition, and systematic violations of human rights). It was also a regime which drew its energy from the manipulation of Serbian nationalism, even if, as has been argued, Milosevic himself was not an ideological nationalist. To the extent that xenophobia lay at the heart of Serbian nationalism, the regime found itself relying on an ideology which consisted of an explicit repudiation of such values as tolerance, equality of peoples, respect for the harm principle, and individual rights.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Yugoslavia