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451. Tokyo's Quandary, Beijing's Moment in the Six-Party Talks: A Regional Multilateral Approach to Resolve the DPRK's Nuclear Problem

Author:
Kuniko Ashizawa
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Pacific Affairs
Institution:
University of British Columbia
Abstract:
The record of Japan's diplomacy in the Six-Party Talks (SPT), the key multilateral mechanism to address North Korea's unflagging nuclear ambitions, is unpronounced. Tokyo's position in the SPT process has been often viewed as a secondary one, as if it was functioning as Washington's henchman, and at times as unproductive, thanks to its attempts to address the abductions issue in this multilateral setting. This represents an interesting contrast to China's SPT diplomacy, which has seen Beijing play an indispensable role, projecting itself as an honest broker. Further, the contrast between the two countries is intriguing when their general policies toward regional multilateral institutions over the past decade are taken into account. Both countries made a conspicuous shift in their attitudes toward regional multilateral institution-building, from negative and skeptical to positive and active. In the case of the SPT, a new multilateral institution in Asia, Tokyo's activism appeared to be muted, while Beijing positioned itself in a most visible manner. With this backdrop, the article examines Japanese policy making toward the SPT through a specific comparison with the country's general attitude toward regional institution-building and with China's SPT diplomacy. It argues that three aspects of the decision-making context—the nature of foreign policy questions, the composition of actors, and the type of available diplomatic tools—unique to Japan's dealings with the SPT essentially shaped its diplomacy and thus brought about a conspicuous contrast with its general attitude toward regional institution-building and with Beijing's growing regional activism.
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Washington, Beijing, Asia, North Korea, and Tokyo

452. Central Asia Between Competition and Cooperation

Author:
Yu Bin
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Great power competition in Central Asia ebbs and flows in a timeless and tireless fashion. Unlike in Europe and East Asia during the Cold War and after, the fault line for the current jockeying for position in Central Asia between Washington and Beijing is not easily discernible. Instead, fluidity, uncertainty, and even outright reversal of fortunes among the major players have been the norm.
Topic:
Cold War, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Central Asia, and East Asia

453. The Kim Jong-Il Government's Policy Toward South Korea: Analysis of the June 2005 Inter-Korean Agreement

Author:
Young Whan Kihl
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The Kim Jong-Il Government's policy toward South Korea is an extension not only of North-South Korea relations, especially since the historic June 2000 North-South summit meeting in Pyongyang, but also of the DPRK domestic politics of the Kim regime survival strategy. How are the domestic policy agenda of “Building the Kangsong Taeguk (Strong and Prosperous Great Power) and “the Military-First Politics,” for instance, related to the Kim Government policy and strategy toward the South? What are the implications for Pyongyang's strategy of balancing against major powers' competing interests and driving a wedge between Seoul and its allies in Tokyo and Washington?
Political Geography:
Washington, South Korea, Tokyo, and Pyongyang

454. Meeting the Challenge of a Fragmented Iraq: A Saudi Perspective

Author:
Nawaf Obaid
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
During an official visit to Washington DC on September 20th, 2005, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal proclaimed: “US policy in Iraq is widening sectarian divisions to the point of effectively handing the country to Iran…. We fought a war together to keep Iran out of Iraq, now we are handing the whole country over to Iran without reason…. Iraq is disintegrating.”
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Maryland

455. Chechnya Weekly: Foreign ministry protests jamestown conference

Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Financial Times reported on April 19 that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak had lodged a formal protest with the U.S. Ambassador to Moscow, William Burns, the previous day over The Jamestown Foundation-sponsored conference held in Washington on April 14 entitled "Sadullaev's Caucasian Front: Prospects for the Next Nalchik." RIA Novosti reported on April 18 that the Foreign Ministry had summoned the U.S. ambassador to, in the news agency's words, "hand him a note of protest against a seminar in Washington which it said called for new terrorist attacks in Russia." According to RIA Novosti, the ministry claimed that during the conference "the floor had been given to speakers who called for new terrorist acts in Russia." The news agency quoted the ministry as saying that "[t]he organization of such events in the United States contradicts the country's international obligations in the sphere of counter-terrorism" and that "[s]uch concessions on the part of Washington to Chechen militants and separatists also run counter to the spirit of partner-based bilateral anti-terrorist cooperation, and damage bilateral relations."
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, Asia, and Moscow

456. The United States Needs German Economic Leadership

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On January 13, Germany's new chancellor, Angela Merkel, will have her first official visit with US President George W. Bush. Washington, or at least the part of Washington that still pays attention to transatlantic issues, not just the Bush administration, will be glad to see her given that she is not her US-bashing predecessor Gerhard Schroeder. Though this change in atmosphere is welcome, no one should make too much of it. It is unlikely to make much difference on security issues, where Iran's own actions are forcing the United States and Germany to come together, where German public opinion will keep the governments apart on Iraq, and where neither country is prepared to make major changes to defense budgets and approaches. The Masri case will certainly limit Merkel's interest in appearing too chummy with Bush on security matters.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, and Germany

457. China Needs to Float the Yuan--for China's Sake

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
In their April 21 press release following their spring meeting in Washington, D.C., the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors added an important sentence to their usual bland statement that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals: Greater exchange rate flexibility is desirable in emerging economies with large current account surpluses, especially China, for necessary adjustments to occur. In their April 21 press release following their spring meeting in Washington, D.C., the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors added an important sentence to their usual bland statement that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals: Greater exchange rate flexibility is desirable in emerging economies with large current account surpluses, especially China, for necessary adjustments to occur. The G7, significantly, also called for an increased role for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help countries, including those in the G7 but also China and others in emerging Asia, meet the macroeconomic and financial policy challenge of globalization. Specifically, the G7 supported the strengthening of IMF surveillance, including through increased emphasis on the consistency of exchange rate policies with domestic policies and a market-based international monetary system and on the spillover effects of domestic policies on other countries. The G7s endorsement of greater exchange-rate flexibility and of an enhanced IMF role in implementing it is important. The IMF, having been founded after World War II to maintain stable exchange rates among major economies, has become an advocate on behalf of the major economies of global exchange-rate flexibility. The lesson regarding the need for G7 currency flexibility was learned after Americas August 1971 abandonment of fixed exchange rates, which was followed by a decade of adjustments to higher oil prices that would have wreaked havoc under fixed exchange rates. The lesson for needed currency flexibility in emerging markets was learned after the disastrous attempt, fostered in part by the IMF, to impose fixed exchange rates during the Asian and Russian crises of 1997 and 1998, which prolonged and exacerbated the market gyrations caused by the crises. Sadly, China response to the G7-IMF call for greater currency flexibility has been both negative and misguided. China's foolishly insouciant attitude, captured in a comment by Zhou Xiao-chuan, governor of the Peoples Bank of China, carries with it serious risks both for China and for the world economy. Zhous remark was quoted on April 24 in the Wall Street Journal: [T]he speed of moving forward (on yuan appreciation) is OK. Its good for China and welcomed by many other countries. China's currency has appreciated only 1.2 percent since its initial 2.1 percent revaluation last July 21. That is less than OK. The total 3.3 percent revaluation against the dollar really represents no adjustment at all in view of the 1 to 2 percent inflation differential (lower in China) that has persisted between the United States and China over the past two years. If China had allowed prices to rise instead of mandating caps on prices of important commodities like gasoline, there would be less pressure for the yuan to rise in value. Both the intervention to cap the yuans appreciation and the capping of domestic prices are building up potentially disruptive inflation pressure inside China, as we shall see below. The most dangerous aspect of China's increased efforts to prevent yuan appreciation, as measured by accelerating reserve accumulation over the past year, is the rising pool of liquidity inside China that has resulted. The level of excess reserves in Chinese banks is now larger, relative to GDP, than the level of excess reserves built up in Japan from 2001 to 2005 during the years of a prolonged, desperate struggle against deflation. China's currency undervaluation, coupled with the massive liquidity buildup in its banking system, has resulted in excessive investment in China's state enterprises that have close traditional ties with the liquidity-sodden banks. The usual Chinese response to excess reserves has been to boost reserve requirements for its banks. But to absorb the huge pool of excess reserves now in place, reserve requirements would have to be boosted by 5 percentage points to 12.5 per-cent, going far beyond previous moves of 0.5 to 1 percentage point, and far beyond what China's shaky, insolvent banks could endure. When the Peoples Bank of China boosted its one-year benchmark lending rate on April 26 by 27 basis points (to 5.85 percent), it took a tiny step that will do little to tighten China's monetary stance.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Washington

458. Preemptive Surveillance

Author:
James Q. Wilson
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Federal district court Judge Anna Diggs Taylor has ruled that the warrantless interception of telephone and Internet calls between a foreign agent and American persons is illegal and unconstitutional. It is possible that she is right about the illegality, but she is almost surely wrong that it is unconstitutional. The government has appealed this decision to the Sixth Circuit. No one can say what it will decide, although other appeals courts have tolerated such surveillance. Ultimately the Supreme Court will have to decide the matter. The Constitutional arguments against the surveillance are unpersuasive. A Washington Post editorial dismissed them as “throat clearing.” Judge Taylor refers to the free speech provision of the First Amendment but fails to explain how listening to a conversation or reading e-mail abridges anyone's right to speak. Taken literally, a Constitutional ban on intercepts would make it impossible to overhear the mafia plotting murders or business executives fixing prices.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

459. Iran Means What It Says

Author:
Michael Rubin
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On February 2, 2006, the International Atomic Energy Agency will meet in Vienna to discuss the nuclear crisis in Iran and, in all likelihood, refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council for being in breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty's safeguards agreement. Such a referral will mark a turning point in a decade-long saga. Europe's engagement with Iran has failed. The United States and its European allies have been resolute in their condemnation of the Iranian government decision to resume uranium enrichment. In contrast to previous diplomatic impasses with Tehran, neither Washington nor its European allies appear willing to make further concessions. On January 23, U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice said, “I don't see much room for further discussion in any format [with Iran].” At a January 13, 2006, press conference with German chancellor Angela Merkel, George W. Bush condemned Iran. “Iran, armed with a nuclear weapon, poses a grave threat to the security of the world,” Mr. Bush said. “We will not be intimidated,” Ms. Merkel added. Already, though, there has been one casualty of the diplomatic crisis: the European Union's policy of engagement.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Tehran, Germany, and Vienna

460. Who's Playing Politics?

Author:
Edward Blum, Roger Clegg, and Abigail Thernstrom
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Government memos leaked to the press are nothing new in Washington, yet they can still command a front-page, above-the-fold headline. The latest came on December 2, 2005, when the Washington Post trumpeted, “Justice Staff Saw Texas Districting as Illegal; Voting Rights Finding on Map Pushed by DeLay Was Overruled.” (Part of this story was recycled by the Post on Monday, January 23, in another front-page, above-the-fold story.) The story that followed loosely described the contents of a 2003 internal Department of Justice memo written by career staffers in the voting section of the civil-rights division. Those staffers—five lawyers and two analysts—had concluded that the Congressional redistricting plan Texas had recently submitted to them for approval was in violation of the 1965 Voting Rights Act because it “retrogressed”—or, more simply, “diminished”—the electoral position of blacks and Hispanics. Then attorney general John Ashcroft and the political appointees in the civil-rights division—as well as, incidentally, a career lawyer higher in the chain of command (a fact that the Post failed to note)—rejected the memo's findings and allowed Texas to implement the new plan.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Washington