International Crisis Group's (ICG) 50- page report in the wake of OCL examines the war's toll and fallout for Gaza, the West Bank, and Israel, as well as prospects for a lasting cease-fire, Gazan reconstruction, and intra-Palestinian reconciliation in light of current realities. The excerpts below focus on Egypt's role, both in Gaza and with regard to the "regional cold war." Footnotes have been omitted for space considerations. The full report can be found online at www.crisisgroup.org.
Hasan Nasrallah devoted his usual Friday televised address to responding head-on to the Egyptian government's dramatic announcement two days earlier of a Hizballah network operating in Egypt to spread Shi'i ideas and prepare hostile operations threatening public security. While forcefully denying the charges asmade, the speech is important for its confirmation, with detail, of Hizballah's involvement in transporting weapons and ammunition across the border into Gaza the month before Operation Cast Lead. Nasrallah's summary of his party's policies with regard to the Arab countries is also noteworthy. (See section "The Regional Cold War" in Doc. A2 above for International Crisis Group's analysis of the Egyptian-Hizballah exchange.) The speech, carried by Hizballah's al-Manar television, was translated in full by BBC Monitoring Middle East and made available by BBC World Monitoring on 12 April 2009.
Political Geography:
Washington, Paris, London, Palestine, and Jerusalem
Policymakers consistently identify nuclear terrorism as one of the greatest threats facing the United States and the world. Indeed, the diffusion of technology, the rise of extremist ideology, and the steady spread of nuclear materials conspire to make nuclear terrorism an increasingly worrying prospect.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
The argument in this paper is two-fold: On the one hand, the oil-rich far south of Iraq has a special potential for radical and unpredictable millenarianism by discontented Sadrists; on the other hand, developments among the Sadrist leadership nationally suggest that many key figures – including Muqtada al-Sadr himself and some of his lieutenants with links to Basra – still prefer a more moderate course and will seek to hold on to a veneer of Shiite orthodoxy as long as possible. Accordingly, the future of the Sadrist movement, including in the far south, will likely be decided by how US and Iraqi government policies develop over coming months. If Washington chooses to support Nuri al-Maliki in an all-out attack against the Sadrists, the response may well be an intensification of unpredictable Mahdist militancy in the far south, in a far more full-blown picture than anything seen so far. There will be no genuine national reconciliation in Baghdad, simply because the centralism of the Sadrists is a necessary ingredient in any grand compromise that can appeal to real Sunni representatives. Conversely, if the Sadrists are encouraged to participate in the next local elections, Amara, where Sadrists have been engaged in local politics since 2005, could emerge as a model of positive Sadrist contributions to local politics in Iraq. At the national level, too, the Sadrists could come to play the same constructive role as that seen in February 2008, when they together with Fadila reached out to Sunni Islamists and secularists to challenge the paralysed Maliki government on a nationalist basis by demanding early provincial elections.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Baghdad, and Palestine
NATO cannot avoid discussing energy security. As both the international situation and the alliance evolve, it becomes increasingly important and relevant to do so: clear and direct links exist between the security of NATO member states and the interruption of their energy supply. Indeed, given the range and potential scale of these threats it would be, as stated by the alliance's Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, alarming if NATO did not at least discuss it. NATO could not simply 'stay on the sidelines' watching such threats emerge. Discussion of energy security can take place under the framework of the alliance's Washington Treaty, as outlined in Article IV. But the role proposed by the alliance is a limited one - and, as Jamie Shea has noted, discussions mean neither automatic agreement that NATO will act, nor that the alliance would necessarily adopt a leading role in any response.
The May 25 election of Gen. Michel Suleiman as Lebanon's twelfth president was a central element of the Qatari-brokered compromise between the March 14 coalition and the Hizballah-led opposition. The agreement was greeted with relief in Washington and other international capitals, allaying fears that Lebanon was once again heading toward civil war. Now that Fouad Siniora has been re-designated as prime minister, the Doha agreement's remaining elements include the difficult task of establishing a "national unity government" and holding parliamentary elections in 2009. The new law governing those elections will determine whether Lebanon will have a solid future foundation or if the day of final reckoning has been merely postponed.
In response to the February 12 assassination of chief of operations Imad Mughniyeh, Hizballah has ratcheted up its threats, warnings, and saber rattling. In turn, Israel has locked down its foreign missions, put its military on heightened alert, and deployed Patriot missiles near Haifa. And in Washington, the FBI issued a bulletin to its field offices warning of possible attacks on U.S. soil.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
Yesterday's assassination of arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh was welcome news in Washington, Buenos Aires, Tel Aviv, and, albeit quietly, Beirut and Baghdad. For Hizballah and Damascus, however, the loss of Mughniyeh -- who was a brilliant military tactician, a key contact to Tehran, and a successful political leader -- is a severe blow to their ongoing activities and operations.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Tehran, Baghdad, Lebanon, Syria, and Beirut
Because of the significance of Nigeria to the entire African continent, and because of growing concern that the United States had paid insufficient attention to the signs of growing tensions and instability within Nigeria on the lead-up to the 2007 national elections, a consortium of primarily Washington-based institutions (the Wilson Center, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Africa Program at John Hopkins' School for Advanced and International Studies, and the Council on Foreign Relations) organized a series of programs designed to engage both Nigerian and American policymakers in an examination of “The Pending Nigerian Elections: A Step Toward Democratic Consolidation or Descent into Chaos?” Three of these programs were held prior to the elections, and focused on “Nigeria's Political Outlook: The 2007 Elections and Beyond,” “The Niger Delta: Prospects for Elections and the Future Reform Agenda,” and “Nigeria: On the Eve of National Elections.” This paper reports on the fourth program, “A Post- Elections Assessment,” which was hosted by the Wilson Center.
Trade policy has become a partisan affair in Washington. Major trade bills in Congress typically pit pro-trade Republicans backed by big business against trade-skeptic Democrats aligned with labor unions. And as the two major parties arm themselves for the 2008 general election, trade policy promises to provide one of the sharper contrasts between them.