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42. From the Ferghana Valley to South Waziristan: The Evolving Threat of Central Asian Jihadists
- Author:
- Thomas M. Sanderson, Daniel Kimmage, and David A. Gordon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- When Admiral Dennis Blair, the U.S. director of national intelligence, delivered the intelligence community's annual threat assessment to Congress in February 2009, he painted a bleak picture of post-Soviet Central Asia. Describing Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as a morass of “highly personalized politics, weak institutions, and growing inequalities,” Blair argued that they are “ill-equipped to deal with the challenges posed by Islamic violent extremism, poor economic development, and problems associated with energy, water, and food distribution.”
- Topic:
- Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Soviet Union
43. Central Asia: Migrants and the Economic Crisis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The economic crisis has caused millions of migrant labourers from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to lose their jobs in the boom economies of Russia and Kazakhstan. Remittances that kept their relatives afloat have plummeted and many migrants have returned home to certain destitution, putting weak Central Asian governments under severe strain. In Tajikistan half the labour force is without work, while Kyrgyzstan suffers from massive rural unemployment. Before the crisis hit, up to five million people from these countries left home for Russia and Kazakhstan to take on poorly paid and unskilled jobs, often the unpleasant tasks that local people no longer wished to do. Yet at home they were viewed with respect: the most daring members of their society, who were willing to take a jump into the unknown to pull themselves and their families out of poverty. Remittances also boosted their home countries' economic data, allowing governments with little ability or interest in creating jobs to claim a modest degree of success. By 2008 remittances were providing the equivalent of half Tajikistan's gross domestic product (GDP), a quarter of Kyrgyzstan's GDP, and an eighth of Uzbekistan's.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan
44. The Pogroms in Kyrgyzstan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- An explosion of violence, destruction and looting in southern Kyrgyzstan on 11-14 June 2010 killed many hundreds of people, mostly Uzbeks, destroyed over 2000 buildings, mostly homes, and deepened the gulf between the country\'s ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. It was further proof of the near total ineffectiveness of the provisional government that overthrew President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April 2010, and is now trying to guide the country to general elections in October. Given the government\'s slowness to address the causes and consequences of the violence, the danger of another explosion is high. Even without one, the aftershocks of the looting, murder and arson could seriously damage Kyrgyzstan\'s ailing economy, cause a significant outflow of ethnic Uzbeks and other minorities, and further destabilise the already fragile situation in Central Asia in general. The route back to stability will be long and difficult, not least because no reliable security or even monitoring force has been deployed in the affected area. It should start with an internationally supported investigation into the pogroms, as visible an international police and diplomatic presence as possible to discourage their recurrence, and close coordination on effective rebuilding of towns and communities.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Genocide, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan
45. Kathleen Collins, Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia
- Author:
- Emmanuel Karagiannis
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- This book examines the role of clans in Central Asia from the 19th century up to 2004. Most studies of regime transition focus on formal institutions. However, Collins claims that modern clans, defined as networks of individuals linked through kinship and fictive kin identities (p. 17), function as informal political actors which has initiated or undermined political change in Central Asia. Moreover, clan membership frequently determines career prospects, especially in the public sector, influences social status, and functions as a defense mechanism against outside competitors. To begin with, the author does a very good job of providing a theoretical framework to understand clan politics (p. 24-53). From her point of view, understanding clans requires the comprehension of both rational and cultural elements. In addition, she adequately explains why and how clans survived during the Soviet period, despite efforts to eradicate them and impose new national identities among Central Asia's indigenous population (pp. 62-134).
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan
46. New Analytical Categories for Assessing EU Sanctions
- Author:
- Francesco Giumelli
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- There is considerable debate on why are sanctions imposed, but little agreement so far. While the only consensus is that sanctions are aimed at changing the behaviour of a target, in fact, international sanctions can also be imposed to constrain actors or send signals. Since the creation of the Union in 1992, the EU has imposed 21 autonomous restrictive measures that are difficult to understand and compare without the proper analytical tools. The application of a tripartite taxonomy of the purpose of sanctions to the cases of the EU sanctions on Belarus, Zimbabwe and Uzbekistan is used to illustrate the differences and to set guidelines for a better understanding of international sanctions.
- Political Geography:
- Uzbekistan and Zimbabwe
47. China-Russia Relations
- Author:
- Yu Bin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The last month of 2009 was significant for petro-politics on the Eurasian continent. In mid-December, the 1,800 km Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China natural gas pipeline went into operation. It connects with the 4,500 km West-East trunk line inside China and has an annual capacity of 40 billion cubic meters. Two weeks later, Prime Minister Putin officially commissioned the first section (about 2,700 km from Taishet in eastern Siberia to Skovorodino in the Amur region) of the nearly 5,000 km Eastern Siberia-Pacific-Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline to the newly built Kozmino oil port near Vladivostok, where the first batch of Siberian crude was being loaded on the 100,000-ton oil tanker Moscow University bound for Hong Kong. Thus, Moscow and Beijing significantly elevated their postures in the global game of energy diversification for both buyers and sellers. Both pipelines were built during the tenure of President-turned-Prime-Minister Putin. His October visit to China resulted in a dozen high-value commercial deals, but also reflected his 10-year legacy in shaping Russian-Chinese relations and their mutual perceptions.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- China, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, Beijing, Uzbekistan, Moscow, Turkmenistan, and Hong Kong
48. The limitations of European Union reports on arms exports: the case of Central Asia
- Author:
- Mark Bromley and Paul Holtom
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- All European Union (EU) member states are required to submit information on arms export licences and arms exports for inclusion in the EU annual reports on arms exports. The example of Central Asia— Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—shows that the data in these EU annual reports has only a limited utility for monitoring exports of arms and military equipment. The specific case of Uzbekistan, which was subject to an EU arms embargo between 2005 and 2009, shows that certain transfers of apparent concern have been reported but not investigated, while other transfers have not appeared in the annual reports.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
49. External Powers' Influence upon the Reform and Political Elites in Present Kyrgyzstan
- Author:
- Irina Morozova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
- Institution:
- The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Formerly perceived as an 'island of democracy', Kyrgyzstan is now characterised as a 'failed state'. After the March 2005 revolutionary upheaval, President K. Bakiev has been searching for a way to consolidate the ruling elite. What was the impact of external powers and international policies upon the last four years' socio-political transformation in the country? How were the images of Kyrgyzstan constructed and manipulated from within and outside? Based upon field interviews, open sources and statistics, this research focuses on the influences of Russia, China, the USA and EU, as well as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan on Kyrgyz political elites' development after March 2005. Against the background of multi-dimensional and quite open foreign policy, economic integration and social networks in Kyrgyzstan developed in closer co-operation with Russia and Kazakhstan.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan
50. Dutch Disease in Uzbekistan? A Computable General Equilibrium Model of Effects of Foreign Investment into Uzbekistan's Gas Sector
- Author:
- Michael P. Barry
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
- Institution:
- The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Uzbek lawmakers have been working hard to attract foreign investors into exploration and production in Uzbekistan. This paper will describe these laws and use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze their macroeconomic effects on Uzbekistan and beyond. This analysis does not attempt to quantify the causal relationship between Uzbek laws and the amount of investment. Instead, the focus of the paper is closer to the following questions: successful or not, is the Uzbek campaign to attract foreign investment a good idea at all? Who wins and who loses? Results of the model suggest that Uzbekistan would be better off overall from foreign investment in its natural gas sector, due mostly to improvements in overall production efficiency and terms of trade. However, the gain in the natural gas sector would come at the expense of production and net exports of non-petroleum related industries.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Uzbekistan