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241. The Politics of Iran's Assembly of Experts after Meshkini

Author:
Mahjoob Zweiri and Ramzy Mardini
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The recent death of Ayatollah Ali Meshkini effectively created a vacuum that was bound to lead to an ideological and political clash among Iran’s power players. Meshkini was the first and only chairman of the Assembly of Experts, objectively Iran’s most powerful institution. He has kept its inherent powers at bay to the desires of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But now that has changed and Meshkini’s passing, with the recent victory of Hashemi Rafsanjani as his successor, has come at a time when the Islamic Republic is witnessing a socio-political redefinition in its conservative establishment. The ambitions of Iran’s old and new elitists have led to a political confrontation in filling Meshkini’s vacuity, a struggle that may have changed Iranian discourse, as we know it. Though this event is little known and hardly emphasized in media circles in the West, the politics leading up to Rafsanjani’s victory over the ultra-conservatives should be of great interest to those in discussion with Iran over its nuclear program and involvement in Iraq, particularly the United States. This article analyzes the Assembly’s role and significance within the Iranian institutional realm as well as depicts the candidates and politics that shaped this historic dilemma.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Nuclear Power, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

242. Iran’s Nuclear Challenge

Author:
Colin Dueck and Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
COLIN DUECK and RAY TAKEYH describe the political, ideological and security motivations behind Iran’s nuclear program and examine various strategic alternatives available to the United States. They conclude that the United States should pursue comprehensive, direct negotiations with Tehran on the nuclear issue, within an overarching framework of containment.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Negotiation, and Containment
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

243. The U.S. and Iran After the NIE

Author:
Farideh Farhi
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The release of the National Intelligence Estimate regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities, intentions, and policies created shock waves as well as sighs of relief in Washington and elsewhere. The assessment that Iran stopped its weapons program in 2003, and that its declared enrichment program cannot be converted as easily or as quickly as assumed for use in a military program, immediately brought into question the notion that Iran’s nuclear program needs to be dealt with immediately and only through coercive mechanisms. Amid a notable amount of “spinning” the NIE’s conclusions, a slew of questions are in play regarding if and how the U.S. should alter its hard-edged policies toward the Islamic Republic. A consensus seems to have developed that the report has taken the military option off the table and made the sanctions process at play in the U.N. Security Council more difficult to pursue effectively. These dynamics gave longstanding proponents of direct and unconditional dialogue with Iran new opportunity to re-state their case.1 Calls for such negotiations also came from surprising new corners. In the words of Robert Kagan, co-founder of the hawkish Project for the New American Century, “it is hard to see what other policy options are available. This is the hand that has been dealt. The Bush administration needs to be smart and creative enough to play it well.”2
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

244. What Are Nuclear Weapons For? Recommendations For Restructuring U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces

Author:
Sidney D. Drell and James E. Goodby
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The U.S. and Russia have agreed to cooperatively reduce their large nuclear stockpiles. The report recommends that the U.S. reduce its arsenal to 500 operational deployed warheads, with 500 warheads in a responsive force, by 2012. These reductions would be made in concert with Russian warhead reductions. The authors specifically outline where and how the remaining warheads should be deployed.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

245. Dismantling the DPRK’s Nuclear Weapons Program: A Practicable, Verifiable Plan of Action

Author:
David Albright and Corey Hinderstein
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
Verified dismantlement of the nuclear weapons program of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) can be accomplished successfully. Although difficulties abound in reaching an agreement with the DPRK to achieve this goal, the methods and steps involved in the dismantlement process are well understood. Because this goal remains vital to U.S. and international security, the United States has joined with China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea in working toward verified denuclearization of the Korean peninsula with the cooperation of the DPRK. These six nations have launched a series of negotiations, called the Six-Party Talks, aimed at resolving the crisis over the DPRK’s nuclear program. These nations are also attempting to create a plan to dismantle the DPRK’s program in a manner with which all the nations can feel secure.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

246. Revisiting Goldwarter v. Carter: The Executive’s Right to Rescind Treaties in Light of President Bush’s 2002 Termination of the ABM Treaty

Author:
Howard A. Wachtel
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
This paper examines the constitutional power of the President to terminate treaty obligations. It centers on President Bush’s recent renunciation of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with the Soviet Union. It focuses on the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches in light of the Goldwater v. Carter and Kucinich v. Bush decisions. The paper is divided into six sections: (1) the international legal ramifications of unilateral executive treaty rescission; (2) the role of standing; (3) the impact of the political question doctrine; (4) arguments for and against permitting the President to terminate treaties; (5) a discussion of the process that should be used to terminate treaties, as between the President and Congress; and, finally, (6) an examination of alternative strategies that Congress may employ when the President chooses to rescind a treaty. The paper concludes that the decision to terminate a treaty should not be one-sided, and that joint action from both branches should be required whenever the United States wishes to relieve itself of treaty obligations.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

247. Combating Proliferation: Addressing the Russian Nuclear Threat

Author:
Amy M. Seward
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Fifteen years after the initiation of U.S. threat reduction programs in the former Soviet Union and some four years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, more than half of Russia’s vast stockpile of weapons-usable fissile materials remains to be secured, and is thus vulnerable to diversion by terrorists for use in a nuclear device. This paper assesses the state of fissile material security in Russia today, taking as a case study the security of nuclear materials involved in the operations of the Russian Navy’s Northern Fleet. Recommendations are made drawing on the successes and shortcomings of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Material Protection Control and Accounting Program at the Fleet’s naval facilities. This analysis leads into a broader examination of the effectiveness and adequacy of U.S. nonproliferation efforts in keeping weapons of mass destruction out of the hands of terrorists.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

248. What Are Nuclear Weapons For? Recommendations for Restructuring U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces

Author:
Sidney D. Drell and James E. Goodby
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
This report is aimed at revising the current US defense strategy towards Russia to more closely represent the recent policy shift towards cooperation. It advocates the reduction of the U.S. strategic arsenal to 500 operationally deployed nuclear warheads and 500 responsive forces. Such a force would be composed of existing warheads and require no new nuclear weapons while maintaining the diversity of force that protects against common failure modes. The report concludes that the United States can enhance its national security by strengthening the nonproliferation regime.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

249. Negotiating Survival: The Problem of Commitment in U.S.-North Korean Relations

Author:
Steven Grunau
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Rational accounts of the causes of conflict provide an important framework to examine the dispute between the United States and North Korea over the latter’s nuclear weapons programs. Because North Korea depends on these weapons to ensure its survival, it is unwilling to irrevocably surrender its nuclear potential—and associated bargaining leverage—in exchange for U.S. security guarantees that could be withdrawn at any time. Arguing that neither confrontation nor engagement is likely to succeed in eliminating the North Korean threat, this paper advocates a longer-term strategy of integration as having the potential to alleviate some of the tensions in the bilateral relationship. By establishing alternative sources of economic and political power while simultaneously exposing Pyongyang to the pacifying influences of international interdependence, integration policies could gradually reduce North Korea’s threat, and perhaps eventually create the necessary conditions to negotiate the elimination of its nuclear weapons and missile programs.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

250. The Debate over North Korea

Author:
Victor D. Cha and David C. Kang
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
VICTOR D. CHA AND DAVID C. KANG debate the strengths and weaknesses of an engagement policy to rid North Korea of its nuclear weapons program. From different perspectives, the two authors analyze common misconceptions about North Korean intentions and strategies as well as debate the merits of a harder-line approach taken by the United States toward the reclusive regime. Whether one views Pyongyang’s intentions with greater skepticism (Cha) or greater flexibility (Kang), the authors argue that some form of engagement, not military preemption, is advisable.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, and United States of America