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121. The Defense Monitor: Gens. McCaffrey and Wilhelm Visit Cuba with CDI Group

Author:
Glenn Baker
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
A Cdi Delegation Traveled to Cuba Feb. 27-March 3 and met top Cuban officials, including Fidel Castro, to explore the possibility of closer cooperation between the United States and Cuba in the fight against drugs and terrorism. CDI President Bruce Blair led a group that included Gen. (Ret.) Barry McCaffrey, Gen. (Ret.) Charles Wilhelm, and members of the CDI board and staff. McCaffrey was “drug czar” under President Clinton; Wilhelm was commander in chief of Southern Command from 1997-2000, and now serves as a Distinguished Military Fellow with CDI. He also went to Cuba with a CDI delegation in February 2001.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

122. Proliferation in the "Axis of Evil": North Korea, Iran, and Iraq

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Despite the June 2000 summit meeting and meetings between high level U.S. and North Korean officials on the one hand, and economic turmoil and continued food shortages on the other, we believe North Korea remains committed to maintaining strong military forces. These forces continue to be deployed close to the border with South Korea in an offensively oriented posture, and North Korea's NBC and missile programs likely remain key components of its overall security strategy. The most likely large- scale regional war scenario over the near term, which would involve the United States, would be on the Korean peninsula. In recent years, North Korea has continued to pose a complex security challenge to the United States and its allies. Prior to the 1994 Agreed Framework, North Korea is believed to have produced and diverted sufficient plutonium for at least one, and possibly two, nuclear weapons. In addition, although North Korea froze the production of plutonium in 1994, there are concerns that North Korea is continuing with some elements of a nuclear weapons program. North Korea also possesses stockpiles of chemical weapons, which could be used in the event of renewed hostilities on the peninsula. Research and development into biological agents and toxins suggest North Korea may have a biological weapons capability. North Korea has hundreds of ballistic missiles available for use against targets on the peninsula, some of which are capable of reaching tar-gets in Japan. Its missile capabilities are increasing at a steady pace, and it has progressed to producing medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). North Korea also has continued development of even longer-range missiles that would be able to threaten areas well beyond the region, including portions of the continental United States. As a result of U.S. diplomatic efforts, however, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has maintained a moratorium on launches of long-range missiles for over one year.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Korea

123. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
From a public policy viewpoint, these uncertainties mean the US must prepare for a wide variety of low probability attacks on the US, rather than to emphasize any given form of attack or group of attackers. The US must plan its Homeland defense policies and programs for a future in which there is no way to predict the weapon that will be used or the method chosen to deliver a weapon which can range from a small suicide attack by an American citizen to the covert delivery of a nuclear weapon by a foreign state. There is no reason the US should assume that some convenient Gaussian curve or standard deviation, will make small or medium level attacks a higher priority over time than more lethal forms.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America

124. Beyond Missile Defense

Author:
Michael O'Hanlon
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
President Bush is correct in his assertion that the United States and its allies should eventually be prepared to defend themselves against long-range ballistic missile attack. He has also been wise to declare the current Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty inappropriate for the modern era, and to leave no doubt in the minds of allies, neutrals, or enemies that his administration intends to move beyond the treaty and build a missile defense system when prudent and possible. However, there are dangers in the Bush administration's apparent approach to protecting the American homeland. The plan—though not yet complete—may focus somewhat myopically on the ballistic missile threat, while largely ignoring other, equally imminent dangers.
Topic:
Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America

125. America and Iran: From Containment to Coexistence

Author:
Suzanne Maloney
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The enduring estrangement between the United States and Iran represents the central paradox for American policy in the Persian Gulf. The world has changed dramatically since the 1979 Islamic Revolution gave rise to a religious government in Tehran and ruptured U.S.-Iranian relations. Those changes have been felt even within Iran's revolutionary politics, through the ascendance of a popular reform movement crystallized by moderate president Mohammad Khatami's 1997 election. This development prompted an abatement in comprehensive U.S. sanctions and fueled expectations of rapprochement.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, America, Iran, and Middle East

126. Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The ballistic missile remains a central element in the military arsenals of nations around the globe and almost certainly will retain this status over the next fifteen years. States willingly devote often scarce resources in efforts to develop or acquire ballistic missiles; build the infrastructures necessary to sustain future development and production; and actively pursue technologies, materials, and personnel on the world market to compensate for domestic shortfalls, gain increased expertise, and potentially shorten development timelines.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

127. Biotechnology and the Future of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention

Author:
Jean Pascal Zanders, Frida Kuhlau, and John Hart
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The spectre of the deliberate use of disease in war has long haunted humankind. The biological warfare threat became more realistic after the terrorist attacks against New York and Washington on 11 September 2001. Not only did the terrorists demonstrate that they were prepared to murder large numbers of people indiscriminately, they also exposed the vulnerability of many societies. The sense of vulnerability was increased by attacks in the United States with letters containing anthrax bacteria, which killed several people and infected many more. Against this background the Fifth Review Conference of the States Parties to the 1972 Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction (BTWC) convened in Geneva on 19 November 2001. One of its main tasks was to evaluate the functioning of the treaty in the light of scientific and technological developments. Biotechnology has expanded rapidly in the past three decades—offering the prospect of a better quality of life—but it can be applied to design new types of biological weapons (BW). This raises concern as to whether the BTWC is sufficiently comprehensive to cover these developments.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Science and Technology, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, New York, and Washington

128. Adversary Use of NBC Weapons: A Neglected Challenge

Author:
John F. Reichart
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Despite years of research, the community's knowledge of how an adversary might use nuclear (and radiological), biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons remains restricted in important ways. The historical data that inform this area are rather limited and largely dated. We do not have much in the way of adversary planning documents or doctrine to study, and nations acquiring NBC weapons do not usually address employment concepts. Despite these gaps, we do know that NBC weapons afford potential adversaries cost-effective force multipliers and that a number of states of concern are actively pursuing their development.
Topic:
Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

129. The Defense Monitor: NMD Development is not Hostage to the ABM Treaty

Author:
Philip E. Coyle
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
To prove he is serious about National Missile Defense, President George W. Bush must abrogate the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty now, according to the most strident critics of the treaty. The longstanding ABM accord with Russia, it is said, is thwarting the technology needed for missile defense.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

130. How Verification Can Be Used to Ensure Irreversible Deep Reductions of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Wu Jun
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
Verifying nuclear disarmament is a complex technical process. This paper examines the techniques that could be used to verify future nuclear weapon reductions and analyzes the motivation for the nuclear states to accept deep weapon cuts and the prospect for future nuclear reductions. To allow large nuclear reductions and assure credible verification, several steps are suggested in this paper: all nuclear warheads should be registered and tagged; the total inventories of plutonium and high-enriched uranium as well as the fissile cores dismantled from the warheads should be verified; the nuclear delivery vehicles and launcher numbers and types should be monitored as outlined in the START and INF treaties; and agreed nuclear-capable delivery vehicle production should also be monitored.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States