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231. Russia vs Georgia: The Fallout - Europe Report N°195

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Russia-Georgia conflict has transformed the contemporary geopolitical world, with large consequences for peace and security in Europe and beyond. Moscow's initial moves into South Ossetia as large-scale violence broke out there on 7-8 August were in part a response to a disastrous miscalculation by a Georgian leadership that was impatient with gradual confidence building and a Russian-dominated negotiations process. But Russia's disproportionate counter-attack, with movement of large forces into Abkhazia and deep into Georgia, accompanied by the widespread destruction of economic infrastructure, damage to the economy and disruption of communications and movement between different regions of the country, constitutes a dramatic shift in Russian-Western relations. It has undermined regional stability and security; threatened energy corridors that are vital for Europe; made claims with respect to ethnic Russians and other minorities that could be used to destabilise other parts of the former Soviet Union, with Ukraine a potential target; and shown disregard for international law.
Topic:
NATO, International Political Economy, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, Soviet Union, Moscow, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

232. Killing Friends, Making Enemies: The Impact and Avoidance of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan

Author:
J Alexander Thier and Azita Ranjbar
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This USIPeace Briefing discusses the enormous problem of civilian casualties in Afghanistan; the “troops-in-contact” dilemma regarding air power; challenges in intelligence gathering; losses in the information war with Taliban forces; and policy recommendations to mitigate this trend.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

233. Iraq: Positive Change in the Detention System

Author:
Elizabeth Detwiler
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This USIPeace Briefing, summarizing remarks from a former commander for detainee operations in Iraq, discusses recent successes in improving the conditions of insurgent detainees in the country.
Topic:
Government and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

234. Things Fall Apart: Containing the Spillover from an Iraqi Civil War

Author:
James J. Wirtz
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Although officers and officials might be forgiven for hoping for the best when it comes to military strategy and diplomacy, they must plan for the worst. Some policymakers, however, have forgotten this simple idea behind prudent planning. It might be defeatist to base one's strategy on the worst-case contingency, but military strategists and diplomats alike should be prepared for some setbacks by not assuming that all the “breaks” will fall their way. Leaders who deliberately choose war probably underestimate its costs and risks, but realists understand that optimistic political rhetoric will fade once battle is joined.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
United States and Yugoslavia

235. Iraq after the Surge I: The New Sunni Landscape

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Against the odds, the U.S. military surge contributed to a significant reduction in violence. Its achievements should not be understated. But in the absence of the fundamental political changes in Iraq the surge was meant to facilitate, its successes will remain insufficient, fragile and reversible. The ever-more relative lull is an opportunity for the U.S. to focus on two missing ingredients: pressuring the Iraqi government to take long overdue steps toward political compromise and altering the regional climate so that Iraq's neighbours use their leverage to encourage that compromise and make it stick. As shown in these two companion reports, this entails ceasing to provide the Iraqi government with unconditional military support; reaching out to what remains of the insurgency; using its leverage to encourage free and fair provincial elections and progress toward a broad national dialogue and compact; and engaging in real diplomacy with all Iraq's neighbours, Iran and Syria included.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

236. Iraq after the Surge II: The Need for a New Political Strategy

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Against the odds, the U.S. military surge contributed to a significant reduction in violence. Its achievements should not be understated. But in the absence of the fundamental political changes in Iraq the surge was meant to facilitate, its successes will remain insufficient, fragile and reversible. The ever-more relative lull is an opportunity for the U.S. to focus on two missing ingredients: pressuring the Iraqi government to take long overdue steps toward political compromise and altering the regional climate so that Iraq's neighbours use their leverage to encourage that compromise and make it stick. As shown in these two companion reports, this entails ceasing to provide the Iraqi government with unconditional military support; reaching out to what remains of the insurgency; using its leverage to encourage free and fair provincial elections and progress toward a broad national dialogue and compact; and engaging in real diplomacy with all Iraq's neighbours, Iran and Syria included.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

237. Learning the Right Lessons from Iraq

Author:
Benjamin H. Friedman, Harvey Sapolsky, and Christopher Preble
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Foreign policy experts and policy analysts are misreading the lessons of Iraq. The emerging conventional wisdom holds that success could have been achieved in Iraq with more troops, more cooperation among U.S. government agencies, and better counterinsurgency doctrine. To analysts who share these views, Iraq is not an example of what not to do but of how not to do it. Their policy proposals aim to reform the national security bureaucracy so that we will get it right the next time.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

238. Two Decades Late

Author:
Frederick W. Kagan
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
More than five years after the war on terror began, the strains it has placed on the U.S. military are beginning to show. Some observers have noticed increasing signs of tension between the Pentagon and our commanders in the field. Inter service rivalries have started to kick up again as the U.S. Marines talk about getting back to their boats; the U.S. Navy talks about recapitalizing parts of its fleet; and the U.S. Air Force takes up the case of the F-22, the Joint Strike Fighter, and so on, with reference to more-or-less distant threat.
Topic:
Defense Policy and War
Political Geography:
United States

239. Not Too Far: The Cyprus Crises of 1963-74 and Lessons for Present Day Iraq

Author:
Barin Kayaoglu
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The Cyprus tragedy of the past and the Iraq predicament of our times bear striking similarities. Cyprus of the 1960s and 1970s is not too far from Iraq in 2008. The main thrust of this article is that Cyprus presents a useful case study for contemporary decision-makers in the United States, Turkey, and Iraq. Just like the Cyprus question, which has caused nearly irreparable damage to the relations between Turkey, Greece, and the United States, policies that are not carefully crafted by Washington, Ankara, Erbil, and Baghdad could lead to a very problematic future for the Middle East. In a nutshell, this article offers a cautionary analysis by drawing on the experiences of the Cyprus tragedy for the purpose of avoiding a similar one in Iraq.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

240. Securing Pakistan's Tribal Belt

Author:
Daniel Markey
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Today, few places on earth are as important to U.S. national security as the tribal belt along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan. The region serves as a safe haven for a core group of nationally and internationally networked terrorists, a training and recruiting ground for Afghan Taliban, and, increasingly, a hotbed of indigenous militancy that threatens the stability of Pakistan's own state and society. Should another 9/11-type attack take place in the United States, it will likely have its origins in this region. As long as Pakistan's tribal areas are in turmoil, the mission of building a new, democratic, and stable Afghanistan cannot succeed.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban