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222. PolicyWatch #1347: Beyond Rhetoric: Hizballah Threats after the Mughniyeh Assassination
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In response to the February 12 assassination of chief of operations Imad Mughniyeh, Hizballah has ratcheted up its threats, warnings, and saber rattling. In turn, Israel has locked down its foreign missions, put its military on heightened alert, and deployed Patriot missiles near Haifa. And in Washington, the FBI issued a bulletin to its field offices warning of possible attacks on U.S. soil.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
223. PolicyWatch #1346: A Mutual Enemy: U.S.-Turkish-Iraqi Cooperation against the PKK
- Author:
- Abdulkadir Onay and Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 21, Turkish ground forces crossed the Iraqi border in an attempt to dismantle Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terrorist camps, following weeks of periodic aerial bombardment that began in mid-December. The incursion was partly the product of a November 5 agreement between Turkey and the United States to share intelligence in fighting the PKK, a group that the U.S. State Department has designated a foreign terrorist organization. On February 22, the White House backed the operation: "The United States agrees with Turkey that the PKK is a terrorist organization, and . . . an enemy of Turkey, Iraq, and the United States."
- Topic:
- Terrorism and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan
224. PolicyWatch #1341: Pakistani Elections and the Middle East
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After a six-week delay following the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, Pakistanis will go to the polls on February 18 to elect a new National Assembly. Pakistan and Afghanistan are "where many of our most important interests intersect," as Director of National Intelligence J. Michael McConnell told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 5. Accordingly, the election results could affect the position of a key U.S. ally in the war on terror -- the increasingly unpopular President Pervez Musharraf.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia
225. PolicyWatch #1326: Prosecuting Terrorism beyond 'Material Support'
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 11, 2008, a Boston federal court convicted Emadeddin Muntasser, Samir Almonla, and Muhammad Mubayid of conspiring to defraud and conceal information from the U.S. government. Prosecutors proved the defendants fraudulently used the charity they ran -- Care International -- "to solicit and obtain tax deductible donations for the purpose of supporting and promoting the mujahedin (Muslim holy warriors) and jihad (violent armed conflict)." The defendants concealed from U.S. authorities the fact that Care was an outgrowth of and successor to the al-Kifah Refugee Center, and engaged in non-charitable activities such as the solicitation and expenditure of funds to support violent jihad.
- Topic:
- Government, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
226. Colombia's Crossroads: The FARC and the Future of the Hostages
- Author:
- Virginia M. Bouvier
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This USIPeace Briefing discusses the condition of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC), their hostages and the potential direction of this situation. The briefing stresses insights that key figures in the issue raised in recent visits to Washington, DC.
- Topic:
- Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, South America, Latin America, and Central America
227. Free Hand Abroad, Divide And Rule At Home
- Author:
- Jack Snyder, Robert Y. Shapiro, and Yaeli Bloch-Elkon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- Under unipolarity, the immediate costs and risks of war are more likely to seem manageable for a militarily dominant power like the U.S. This does not necessarily make the use of force cheap or wise, but it means that the costs and risks of the use of force are comparatively indirect, long-term, and thus highly subject to interpretation. Unipolarity, combined with the opportunity created by September 11, opened a space for interpretation that tempted a highly ideological foreign policy cohort to seize on international terrorism as an issue to transform the balance of power in both the international system and American party politics. This cohort's response to the terrorist attack was grounded in ideological sincerity, but also in the routine practice of wedge issue politics, which had been honed on domestic issues during three decades of partisan ideological polarization and then extended into foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Government, International Political Economy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
228. "The Rise of Afghanistan's Insurgency: State Failure and Jihad"
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In 2001 approximately 100 Central Intelligence Agency officers, 350 U.S. Special Forces soldiers, and 15,000 Afghans overthrew the Taliban regime in less than three months while suffering only a dozen U.S. fatalities. They were supported by as many as 100 U.S. combat sorties per day. Some individuals involved in the operation argued that it revitalized the American way of war. This initial success, however, transitioned into an insurgency, as the Taliban and other insurgent groups began a sustained effort to overthrow the Afghan government. The fighting, which began in 2002, had developed into a full-blown insurgency by 2006. During this period, the number of insurgent-initiated attacks rose by 400 percent, and the number of deaths from these attacks by more than 800 percent. The increase in violence was particularly acute between 2005 and 2006, when the number of suicide attacks quintupled from 27 to 139; remotely detonated bombings more than doubled from 783 to 1,677; and armed attacks nearly tripled from 1,558 to 4,542. Insurgent-initiated attacks rose another 27 percent between 2006 and 2007. The result was a lack of security for Afghans and foreigners.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban
229. "No Sign until the Burst of Fire: Understanding the Pakistan-Afghanistan Frontier"
- Author:
- Thomas H. Johnson and M. Chris Mason
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- By 1932, British troops had been waging war of varying intensity with a group of intractable tribes along and beyond the northwestern frontier of India for nearly a century. That year, in summarizing a typical skirmish, one British veteran noted laconically, “Probably no sign till the burst of fire, and then the swift rush with knives, the stripping of the dead, and the unhurried mutilation of the infidels.” It was a savage, cruel, and peculiar kind of mountain warfare, frequently driven by religious zealotry on the tribal side, and it was singularly unforgiving of tactical error, momentary inattention, or cultural ignorance. It still is. The Pakistan- Afghanistan border region has experienced turbulence for centuries. Today a portion of it constitutes a significant threat to U.S. national security interests. The unique underlying factors that create this threat are little understood by most policymakers in Washington.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Washington, and Asia
230. The Philippines: Counter-insurgency vs. Counter-terrorism in Mindanao
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- U.S.-backed security operations in the southern Philippines are making progress but are also confusing counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency with dangerous implications for conflict in the region. The “Mindanao Model” – using classic counter-insurgency techniques to achieve counter-terror goals – has been directed against the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and has helped force its fighters out of their traditional stronghold on Basilan. But it runs the risk of pushing them into the arms of the broader insurgencies in Mindanao, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The U.S. and the Philippines need to revive mechanisms to keep these conflicts apart and refocus energies on peace processes with these groups. That imperative has become particularly acute since the Malaysian government announced withdrawal, beginning on 10 May, from the International Monitoring Team (IMT) that has helped keep a lid on conflict since 2004. If renewed attention to a peace agreement is not forthcoming by the time the IMT mandate ends in August, hostilities could quickly resume.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and Philippines