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821. The Defense Monitor: Nuclear Recollections

Author:
Bruce Blair
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Rear Adm. Eugene (Gene) Carroll, our beloved colleague who passed away this February, often shared with me his recollections of the role he once played in planning for nuclear war. As quoted in his obituary in the Washington Post, Gene once wrote: “During the horrible confrontation with the Soviet Union we called the Cold War, I frequently stood nuclear alert watch on aircraft carriers. For a period of time my assigned target was an industrial complex and transportation hub in a major city in Eastern Europe … My bomb alone would have resulted in the death of an estimated 600,000 human beings. Multiply that by 40 or 50 times and you can understand what two carriers alone would have done.”
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Soviet Union

822. The Defense Monitor: The World At War

Author:
Col. Daniel Smith
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
At the start of 2003, the United States remains focused on fighting global terrorism in general even as it zeroes in on Iraq as the nexus of evil. But a number of factors in play today make international support for such a venture less effusive than in 1990-91, when the last anti-Saddam “coalition of the willing” formed. Many economies, including those of three of the four big financial supporters of the 1990-91 war — Japan, Germany, and Saudi Arabia — are weaker. Any war would be relatively more expensive. Suspicions about U.S. motives, fueled by the Bush administration's initial unilateralism, remain alive despite Washington's patient work in obtaining a UN Security Council resolution on new inspections. Germany has declared it will provide no forces; use of Saudi Arabian airbases to launch combat missions against Iraq remains unclear; and troop contributions, as well as moral support, from other Arab states such as Egypt and Syria may not materialize.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Iraq, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt

823. Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons against Buried Biological Agents

Author:
Michael May and Zachary Haldeman
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
This report describes the results of some calculations on the effectiveness of penetrating nuclear weapons of yield 1 and 10 kilotons against targets containing biological agents. The effectiveness depends in detail on the construction of the bunkers, on how the bio-agents are stored, on the location of the explosions with respect to the bunkers, the bio-agent containers and the surface of the ground, and on the yield of the explosion and the geology of the explosion site. Completeness of sterilization of the bio-agents is crucial in determining effectiveness. For most likely cases, however, complete sterilization cannot be guaranteed. Better calculations and experiments on specific target types would improve the accuracy of such predictions for those targets, but significant uncertainties regarding actual geology, actual target layouts, and knowledge of the position of the explosion with respect to the target would remain. Aboveground effects of the nuclear explosions, all of which would vent to the surface, are estimated. They include intense local radioactivity and significant fallout, air blast, and seismic effects to kilometers distances. It is likely, however, that casualties from those effects would be less than the casualties that would result from the dispersal of large quantities of bio-agents.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

824. Container Security Report

Author:
Michael May, Tonya L. Putnam, and Dean Wilkening
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
During the week of August 18–23, 2002, the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) of the Institute for International Studies (IIS) at Stanford University hosted four summer studies sponsored by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. One of these studies, the Container Security study, examined how to apply existing technology and resources most effectively to prevent the transport of illicit nuclear materials for use in terrorist activities by means of international commercial shipping.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

825. Radical Groups in Mexico Today

Author:
Gustavo Hirales Morán
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Since January 1, 1994, the day when the armed uprising of the Zapatista Army for National Liberation (EZLN) was announced, it has been evident that Mexico is facing a second generation of radical organizations. The first generation, dating back to the 1970s, consisted of armed groups made up mainly of students, rural classroom teachers, and campesinos (i.e., subsistence farmers and agricultural workers along with their families). This generation's choice to pursue armed struggle revealed a trio of influences: Cuba's experience, socialist ideology, and the outrage and indignation produced by the repression and crackdown on nonviolent avenues of political opposition unleashed under the governments of Gustavo Díaz Ordaz (1964–1970) and Luis Echeverría Álvarez (1970–1976).
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

826. Remarks by Under Secretary Asa Hutchinson on the Launch of the US-VISIT Program

Author:
Asa Hutchinson
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
At the Department of Homeland Security-my responsibility centers on the borders of the United States. What we do at our borders impacts our security, our economy and our relationship with the international community.
Topic:
Security and Migration
Political Geography:
United States and North America

827. Cyber Attacks: Missing in Action

Author:
James A. Lewis
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The first warnings of an “electronic Pearl Harbor” appeared in 1995. 1 They have appeared regularly since then. Before the conflict with Iraq that began in March 2003, there was speculation that the U.S. would experience cyber attacks in retaliation. Since the onset of the war, however, there have been no reported attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations in Iraq. Nor have there been any reports of cyber attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations since 1996.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

828. An Attack on Iraq: The Military, Political, and Economic Consequences: Scenario Briefing

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
There are major uncertainties about the military outcomes and political ramifications of an attack on Iraq. Really three sequential sets of scenarios: The prelude to war and the different ways in which war can occur. The actual process of conflict. The post-conflict occupation of Iraq and the way in which an independent Iraqi regime emerges.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

829. Shoulder to Shoulder - an Interview Series December 2003

Author:
Loretta Bondi
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
CTR: How did the idea of the arrest warrant come about? António Vitorino: The 1999 Amsterdam Treaty expressly provided for the replacement of extradition procedures with a fast-track surrender mechanism. The meeting in Tampere that same year [creating an area of freedom, security and justice in the European Union] developed that idea. We have worked on it since 2000 and completed this work in September 2001. We presented our findings to the Council just eight days after the September 11 attacks. Work on the warrant was completed in just two months. The arrest warrant introduces an unprecedented expedited process, which abolishes formal and lengthy extradition procedures. It is based on the principle of mutual recognition of judicial decisions among EU members, that is, a decision of a member state tribunal should be executed in another member state as easily and quickly as possible.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

830. Shoulder to Shoulder - an Interview Series October 2003

Author:
Loretta Bondi
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
CTR: Will the Conference and its declaration offer a blueprint for a new security treaty to replace the 1947 Rio Treaty? Ambassador Miguel Ruiz- Cabañas: The Conference's declaration encapsulates the main security concerns of the hemisphere such as terrorism, organized crime, the illicit trafficking in persons and arms, poverty, HIV/AIDS and attacks on cyber security. It is a political document, not a legally binding instrument such as a treaty. It will have both a political and a moral impact. I believe that it would be difficult to draft a new treaty. Our approach is similar to such regional organizations that have reformulated their priorities not through a treaty, but through a new political declaration. I must add, however, that the Conference's draft declaration contains a paragraph calling for an assessment of the Rio Treaty to reflect the new security challenges facing the hemisphere. It has been proposed that next year, an expert working group could start meeting to evaluate whether OAS instruments and agreements are working and how they can be improved. The important fact is that, with this Conference and for the first time in fifty years, the region will commit to an updated vision of security based on common values and concerns.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Europe