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731. South East Europe and the Trade Potential of Croatia

Author:
Boris Vujcic and Vedran Sosic
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The question of the trade regime for Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) has during the last decade been the subject of an intense discussion amongst the policymaker s and academia from both within the region and from the EU. The main issues around which the discussion has concentrated w ere those of enhancing the catching-up process by the means of trade liberalization, and protection of the "sensitive" industries within the EU.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Central Asia

732. Promoting Democracy-building and Security through Private Investments

Author:
Franz-Lothar Altmann
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
In principle, private investments can be domestic as well as foreign ones, having of course in many respects quite different effects on democracy-building and security. On the other hand, certain features are also common in general, and I will first try to make some remarks on general effects of private investments, regardless of their domestic or foreign contents. First of all, one can certainly state in general that in order to increase private investments, legislation, legal enforcement and public administration in the respective countries must become transparent and with regard to public administration also more effective. Labor market regulations must become flexible, liberalized for reducing the risk of investors to become chained to encrusted labor laws from former times.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Central Asia

733. Imposing Ideology as "Best Practise": The Problematic Role of the International Financial Institutions in the Reconstruction and Development of South East Europe

Author:
Milford Bateman
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The reconstruction and development of post- communist South East Europe since 1988 has taken place within the framework of the neo-liberal policy model that was effectively imposed upon the region by the Bretton Woods institutions - the World Bank and IMF. As elsewhere in central and eastern Europe ( see Sachs, 1990), the confident prediction made by both institutions was that their preferred policy framework would ensure both a rapid and a sustainable post-communist, and then after 1995 and 1999 a post-conflict, reconstruction and development trajectory. What has transpired instead is something quite different: unstoppable de-industrialisation, dramatically rising poverty, unemployment levels now officially among the highest in the world, high levels of inequality, declining life expectancy, rising employee insecurity and deteriorating working conditions for many, an unprecedented rise in the level of corruption and criminality, drastically declining levels of solidarity and tolerance within already distressed communities, increasingly unsustainable trade and foreign debt levels, and collapsing public health, recreation and welfare services. In spite of such overtly negative results, the World Bank and IMF (hereafter, the International Financial Institutions, IFIs), as well as associated regional development institutions, such as the EBRD, do not appear to have become at all discouraged with the standard neo- liber al policy model. On the contrary, it retains the unequivocal support of the IFI s in South East Europe, as indeed it does just about everywhere else in the world, most recently with respect to the reconstruction of Iraq.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, and Central Asia

734. The Role of Competitiveness for Stability in South East Europe

Author:
Kresimir Jurlin
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The Stabilization and Association Process (SAP) was initiated by the EU for countries not covered by European agreements, i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia and Serbia and Montenegro. The process is realized through Stabilization and Association Agreements (S AA) that the EU already concluded with Croatia and Macedonia, which have important implications for international trade and investment. The SAAs focus on respect for democratic principles and strengthening links of the countries of the region with the single market. They foresee the establishment of a free trade area with the EU and set out rights and obligations in areas such as competition and state aid rules, intellectual property and rights of establishment, which will allow the economies of the region to begin to integrate with the EU. Therefore, the SAP should be regarded as a tool for integration of the countries of South-East Europe into the emerging pan-European free trade area, resulting in removals of trade barriers between all countries that are gaining associate membership status. It should be regarded as a process of transformation of small, closed national economies to countries integrated in a wide area of free movement of goods, services and investment.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Central Asia, and Albania

735. Economic Recovery and Security: Two Important Challenges for the EU in South East Europe

Author:
Predrag Jurekovi
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The main issue of the workshop was how economy can contribute to the stabilisation process in the region. A broad consensus could be reached that economic reforms, democratisation and strengthening of security are interactive processes, which strongly depend on each other. On the one hand it is difficult to imagine that a social market economy in South East European societies can evolve without creatings table political institutions in a secure environment. On the other hand the economic performance of the South East European countries and especially external economic influence seem to have a very strong impact on institution building and the bilateral and multilateral relations in the region.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Central Asia

736. The Role of Foreign Direct Investments

Author:
Zvonimir Savi and Ante Igman
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a resident entity in one economy investing in an enterprise entity in another economy and thus obtaining a lasting interest in an enterprise resident in another economy. Under the definition of the International Monetary Fund in the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, foreign direct investment is at hand when a direct investor (non-resident) owns 10% or more of ordinary shares or voting power in the resident (economic entity) of another country. The level of 10% is set arbitrarily because it is presumed that an investor with a higher ownerships hare has also a more significant influence in reaching decisions connected with managing a company. FDI is distinguished from other types of investments in that it is based on the fact that the e is a permanent interest of the investor in the enterprise as well as interest in the management of the company. The IMF permits the possibility of an individual country deciding subjectively whether or not a particular investment belongs to the group of foreign direct investments. For example, if an investor owns more than 10% of an economic entity in a country but does not have an effective influence in the management of this entity, such an investment cannot be deemed FDI. Investors (non-residents) may be private or legal entities, groups of individuals or legal entities, governments or government agencies or any other similar foreign organisation that has a share in the domicile economic entity pursuant to the above definition. One more characteristic of FDI is that the foreign investor reaches the decision on the investment on the highest, strategic level. In contrast, there are also portfolio investments, where the investor has no long term interest in the company that is taking part in reaching decisions. In its definition of portfolio investments the IMF includes shares, bonds, money market instruments and financial derivatives such as options as their basic instruments. Portfolio investments, in contrast to FDI, assume that an investment is conducted in an effort to maximise the value of the investor portfolio and achieve the expected yield against the least possible risk.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Central Asia

737. The Economic aspects of security in South Eastern Europe

Author:
Mladen Stanisis
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
In the process of constructing a safety structure in the South Eastern Europe one must bear in mind the assumptions on which the new global safety structure is based, and those are: 1. Europe, and the surrounding area of the region, is becoming more stable and peaceful, and there are no indications that there will be any armed conflicts between states in the near future. 2. The situation of volatility and insecurity is spreading globally due to unconventional threats, like international terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, drug-trafficking, illegal immigration etc. 3. The EU, as an institution of international integration, and NATO, as an international organisation, are starting to see eye to eye and are co-ordinating their activities on the basis of compatible civilisation values against the stated threats and in attempt to further economic development of the EU. 4. The role and the importance of multilateral organisations are diminishing. The emphasis is being put on the importance of bilateral relations, especially by the last superpower, the USA, whose policy of unilateralism will surely dominate international relations for some time to come. 5. Other stakeholders in the domain of international relations, with the potential to become partners of the USA in the process of reaffirming multilateral relations. The EU, the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the UN have just begun adapting to new relations and there are no indications that the position of the USA as the leading world power would be contested. 6. The globalisation process dominates all aspects of international relations on the basis of scientific and technological revolution, as well as revolution in the communication of information. It will be a consistent mechanism of transferring the model of liberal democracy internationally.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Central Asia

738. Labour Markets and Employment Development in South East Europe

Author:
Hermine Vidovic
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
In contrast to the Central European transition countries, the economies of South East Europe (SEE) have been facing complex and interrelated political and economic problems. The dis solution of Yugoslavia combined with market losses, war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, sanctions finally culminating in the Kosovo conflict were the main causes of political and economic instability in the whole region. Taking into account these factors, output recovery has been much slower in SEE than in the Central European countries. Measured in purchasing power standards, Croatia is the best per former in the region, with its GDP at about 38% of the EU average. Next comes Bulgaria (32%), whereas the respective values f or Serbia and Montenegro and Albania range between 15-17%. Looking at the economic performance in the 1990-2002 period, Croatia and Romania reached almost 94% of their pre-transitional level in 2002, followed by Bulgaria and Macedonia (about 88% each). Serbia and Montenegro, the worst-affected, reached only about half of what it was in 1990. The cumulative output decline there was one of the largest among all the Central and East European countries.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Development, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania, Croatia, and Montenegro

739. The Defense Monitor, The Wrong Deterrence: The Threat of Loose Nukes is One of Our Own Making

Author:
Colin Robinson, Bruce.G Blair, Nikolai Zlobin, and Alan F. Kay
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Nuclear terrorism, thankfully, is still only a specter, not a reality. But the recent wave of bloodshed in Russia underscores the urgency of the need to prevent terrorists capable of indiscriminate slaughter from acquiring nuclear bombs.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

740. The Defense Monitor, The Real Problem with Intelligence

Author:
Mark Burgess, Lawrence Korb, Winslow T. Wheeler, and Philip E. Coyle
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The reports of the 9/11 Commission and the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence miss the real problem facing the intelligence community. The real problem is not organization or culture, but the Team B concept which began in 1976 and the real villains are those hardliners who refuse to accept the unbiased and balanced judgments of intelligence professionals about the threats facing the country.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States