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281. Renovating U.S. Strategic Arms Control Policy

Author:
Richard D. Sokolsky
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
There has been a tectonic shift in the strategic landscape since the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) negotiations concluded in the early 1990s. The Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact are defunct. America and Russia are no longer enemies and the nuclear arms race between the two countries is, for all intents and purposes, over. The threat of a surprise nuclear attack has all but vanished along with any plausible scenario between the two countries that could escalate to a nuclear war. The strategic warning time for reconstitution of a credible conventional military threat to Europe can now be measured in years. The likelihood that Russia could marshal the economic resources for clandestine production of new nuclear weapon systems on a militarily significant scale is extremely remote. The most serious security threats emanating from Russia today—poorly safeguarded nuclear warheads and materials and the potential proliferation of such material and expertise to states of concern—reflect profound weakness. Simply put, the proliferation risks attendant to a Russia in the throes of a long-term structural crisis are a far more serious security threat than SS–18 heavy missiles destroying U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in a preemptive first strike.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

282. The Strategic Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Author:
Judith S. Yaphe and Kori N. Schake
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Scholars and other spcialists on Iran have argued about that country's political intentions and strategic amibitions since the overthrow of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. In the 1980s Iran's efforts to export its revolution and support international terrorism raised the question of whether a moderate Islamic republic that was able to deal with the West could ever exist. The death of the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 and the succession of Ali Hashimi-Rafsanjani as president raised new issues for the 1990s. As the European and American oil and investment communities considered the race to open Iran commercially, scholars and diplomats debated Iranian efforts to recover from nearly a decade of war and revolution. They compared the merits of the European approach of initiating critical dialogue with the U.S. policy of containing and isolating Iran. Neither approach seemed to have much impact, both conceded, and Iranians continued to sort out their domestic political agenda and to decide how best to protect their strategic and national interests. The U.S. Government, for example, tried to estimate how much time and money Iran would need to modernize its military and to acquire new weapons systems despite projected low oil prices and the country's need to rebuild its damaged and neglected civilian and industrial infrastructure.1 The assumption underlying the U.S. projections was that Iran would be pursuing weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear technology and longrange missile systems.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

283. Walk Softly and Look Ahead in Nuclear South Asia

Author:
Zia Mian
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Before September 11, South Asia's problems loomed large. The region, with over a billion people, a history of war, rising religious militancy, newly tested nuclear weapons, and a gettough mood, was on the brink of instability. Adding to South Asia's long list of troubles is the U.S. war against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. Hasty U.S. actions could deepen the problems facing South Asia. Over the long term, the U.S. has the opportunity to foster regional stability—but only if it pursues a different set of policies in the region.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and War
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, and Taliban

284. Fourth Freedom Forum Cosponsors Conference on Averting Nuclear Anarchy

Author:
Joseph Rotblat
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
On March 31 the Fourth Freedom Forum joined with the Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, the Union of Concerned Scientists, the Lawyers Alliance for World Security, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to sponsor a one-day conference at the University of Notre Dame on the crisis in nu;clear arms control and the need for greater efforts to reduce and eliminate nuclear weapons. The conference featured a keynote address by Nobel Prize laureate Dr. Joseph Rotblat. Other speakers included Rev. Theodore M. Hesburgh, C.S.C.; former ambassador Thomas Graham, MIT research fellow Lisbeth Gronlund, former assistant secretary; of Defense Sarah Sewall, and Forum president David Cortright. Remarks of some of the speakers follow.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States

285. Toward Smart Sanctions on Iraq

Author:
George A. Lopez
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
The United States should seek to limit Iraqi designs to develop weapons of mass destruction by supporting a UN-sponsored 'smart' sanctions mechanism. Smart sanctions would involve a tightened system of border monitoring and verification with an eye toward control of dual-use technologies. Financial controls through the UN escrow account should be retained to limit Iraq's purchasing abilities in the global marketplace. Private accounts of Iraqi elites should also be frozen to limit purchases of dual-use goods or expertise. The elimination of the blunt general trade sanctions, which are already leaking, would lift a considerable burden off the Iraqi people.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

286. How Verification Can Be Used to Ensure Irreversible Deep Reductions of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Wu Jun
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
Verifying nuclear disarmament is a complex technical process. This paper examines the techniques that could be used to verify future nuclear weapon reductions and analyzes the motivation for the nuclear states to accept deep weapon cuts and the prospect for future nuclear reductions. To allow large nuclear reductions and assure credible verification, several steps are suggested in this paper: all nuclear warheads should be registered and tagged; the total inventories of plutonium and high-enriched uranium as well as the fissile cores dismantled from the warheads should be verified; the nuclear delivery vehicles and launcher numbers and types should be monitored as outlined in the START and INF treaties; and agreed nuclear-capable delivery vehicle production should also be monitored.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

287. Verifying the Agreed Framework

Author:
Michael May, Nancy Suski, Robert Schock, William Sailor, Wayne Ruhter, Ronald Lehman, James Hassberger, Zachary Davis, George Bunn, and Chaim Braun
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
The Agreed Framework (AF) between the United States of America and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), signed in Geneva on October 21, 1994, has become the centerpiece of recent US efforts to reduce the threat of conflict with North Korea. In particular, it seeks to bring the DPRK into compliance with its obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to acquire nuclear weapons. The AF document sets goals, outlines programs, initiates a US-led nuclear-power consortium, and notes linkages. The AF refers to a wider range of diplomatic and international security initiatives, such as the NPT and the agreement on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and is meant to reinforce others, including those related to the reconciliation of the two Koreas.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, and Korea

288. Biological War and the "Buffy Paradigm"

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The most important single message that anyone can communicate in regard to biological weapons is that we face a very uncertain mix of existing threats politics, commercial development, and technology will change constantly as far into the future as we can look. The issue is not what we know, but how little we know and how little we can predict.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

289. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Chemical weapons have not been used effectively in attacks on the American homeland. Reports that the bombers of the World Trade Center considered trying to add a chemical weapon like sodium cyanide to their explosives seem to be untrue, and led to an unsubstantiated assertion by the trial judge. There have, however, been a number of attempts to use chemical weapons by domestic extremists and individuals. For example, in 1997, members of the KKK plotted to place an improvised explosive device on a hydrogen sulfide tank at a refinery near Dallas, Texas. There is a well-established, low-level risk that such weapons will be used in the future, although there is no way to predict the frequency of such attacks, their scale, potential success, or lethality.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America

290. Iraq's Weapons Of Mass Destruction: An Emerging Challenge For The Bush Administration

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are emerging as one of the first major foreign policy challenges of the Bush administration. Free of weapons monitors and with sanctions eroding, Iraq has resumed its aggressive policies. After the start of the al-Aqsa Intifada last September, it briefly moved elements of four to five divisions toward its border with Syria in a show of solidarity, and on several occasions since then, Saddam Husayn has threatened to destroy Israel. Then, earlier this month, his older son Uday reasserted Iraq's claim to Kuwait. With its conventional military capabilities hobbled by two bloody wars and more than a decade of sanctions, Iraq's retained WMD capabilities assume renewed salience.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, and Syria