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192. Iranian Influence in the Levant, Iraq and Afghanistan
- Author:
- Danielle Pletka, Frederick W. Kagan, and Kimberly Kagan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The conflict between Iran and the United States began in 1979 with the Iranian Revolution and the seizure of the American Embassy in Tehran. Born partly of ideological differences and partly of real and perceived differing national interests, it has continued, alternately hot and cold, for almost three decades and seems unlikely to end soon. Like most previous conflicts, its conclusion cannot be foreseen. Many such struggles, like the Anglo-German tensions between 1871 and 1945 and the centuries-long tensions between Britain and France, lead to full-scale war. Others, like the Anglo-Russian or Russian-Ottoman tensions throughout the nineteenth century, lead to more limited conflict. And some, like the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, are resolved without direct armed confrontation. One key to resolving any such conflict is understanding both the nature of the enemy and the scope of the conflict—insights that have eluded most Americans and, indeed, many Iranians. This report addresses this lack of understanding and argues that while neither Americans nor Iranians desire full-scale military confrontation, Iranian activism and American passivity are contributing to a drift toward war.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United States, Iran, Middle East, France, Germany, and Syria
193. Are New Nuclear Bargains Attainable?
- Author:
- Deepti Choubey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Policy makers have returned to the debate over whether and how total nuclear disarmament should take place. The notion that preventing the spread of nuclear weapons is much harder without also reducing their number seems to be motivating much of this interest. Consequently, officials in both the United States and other nuclear-weapon states hope that in direct exchange for renewed action on disarmament, non–nuclear-weapon states will support nonproliferation efforts.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Bilateral Relations, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States
194. Perspectives on Peace and Security in Korea and Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Patrick Degategno and Joseph Snyder
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Atlantic Council of the United States published a report entitled A Framework for Peace and Security in Korea and Northeast Asia in April 2007. The report was the culmination of deliberations of a working group of distinguis hed American scholars and practitioners with a wide range of experience on Korea and Northeast Asia and chaired by Ambassador James Goodby and General Jack Merritt. It laid out a program for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue as part of a comprehensive s ettlement of a range of fundamental security, political and economic issues on the Korean peni nsula. The working group first met in June 2006, shortly before the North Koreans test fire d a series of missiles and about three months prior to the time Pyongyang exploded its firs t, and so far only, nuclear weapon on October 9. At the time the project began, the Six-P arty talks were suspended and prospects for a peaceful solution to the North Korean nuclear issue looked dim.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, North Korea, and Korea
195. Deterring State Sponsorship of Nuclear Terrorism
- Author:
- Michael Levi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The basis of nuclear doctrine during the Cold War was deterrence. Nuclear powers were deterred from attacking each other by the fear of retaliation. Today, much of the concern over possible nuclear attack comes in the context of rogue states and terrorism. And since only states are known to possess nuclear weapons, an important question is how to deter them from letting terrorists acquire a device, whether through an authorized transfer or a security breach. Michael A. Levi analyzes this aspect of deterrence in the post–Cold War world, as well as what to do if deterrence breaks down. He suggests how to discourage states from giving weapons or nuclear materials to terrorists and how to encourage states to bolster security against any accidental transfer. The report also discusses the role of nuclear attribution—the science of identifying the origin of nuclear materials—in deterring transfers, an essential link in assigning responsibility to governments for transfers of nuclear materials.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States and Soviet Union
196. Nuclear Challenges and Policy Options for the Next U.S. Administration
- Author:
- Jean du Preez (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- With the support of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Aff airs, the Monterey Nonproliferation Strategy Group (MNSG) has focused its work over the past two years on specifi c issues that have a direct bearing on the strength and vitality of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). To date, the strategy group's agenda has included ways and means to eliminate the threat of fi ssile material; renewed commitments and new approaches to verifi cation of and compliance with the nuclear nonproliferation regime; practical and achievable nuclear arms reduction and disarmament; the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East; and nuclear challenges and policy options for the next U.S. administration.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
197. Osirak Redux?
- Author:
- Whitney Raas and Austin Long
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The use of military force to halt or reverse nuclear proliferation is an option that has been much discussed and occasionally exercised. In the 1960s, for example, the United States considered destroying China's nuclear program at an early stage but ultimately decided against it. More recently, the key rationale for the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was the threat posed by Iraq's suspected inventory of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Although significant evidence of WMD was not found in the Iraq case, the potential utility of military force for counterproliferation remains, particularly in the case of Iran. The possibility of military action against Iranian nuclear facilities has gained prominence in the public discourse, drawing comments from journalists, former military officers, and defense analysts. This makes the Iranian nuclear program a potential test case for military counterproliferation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Iran, and Asia
198. Pakistan—Conflicted Ally in the War on Terror
- Author:
- Ashley Tellis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Many Americans have blamed the resurgence of al-Qaeda and the Taliban on Pakistan's lackluster performance in the war on terror. Islamabad has indeed been ambivalent, but the convulsive political deterioration in the North West Frontier Province in Pakistan, Islamabad's military ineptitude in counterterrorism operations, and the political failures of the Karzai government in Afghanistan have all exacerbated the problem. Making U.S. aid conditional on Pakistan's performance in the war or undertaking unilateral strikes against terrorist targets in Pakistan would inflate suspicion of Washington's motives, and risk casting Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state, as an American adversary. U.S. policy must instead convince Pakistani elites that defeating terrorist groups serves their own interest, while emphasizing that a terrorist attack emanating from Pakistan would push Washington to adopt more painful tactics.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, America, Washington, Asia, and Taliban
199. PolicyWatch #1313: How Much Does Weaponization Matter? Judging Iran's Nuclear Program
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The just-released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," is about weaponization, not the enrichment and fuel cycle issues that have been the focus of multiple UN Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board resolutions regarding Iran's nuclear program. The NIE only suggests that Tehran has changed its sequence -- something that does not slow the country's progress toward a nuclear weapon by a single day. Therefore, it is not clear how this report affects the current thrust of U.S. policy: to stem Iran's nuclear fuel cycle capabilities.
- Topic:
- Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
200. Nuclear Energy: Balancing Benefits and Risks
- Author:
- Charles D. Ferguson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- According to a prevailing belief, humanity confronts two stark risks: catastrophes caused by climate change and annihilation by nuclear war. The conventional wisdom also believes that the former danger appears far more certain than the latter. This assessment has recently led an increasing number of policymakers, pundits, businesspeople, and environmentalists to advocate a major expansion of nuclear energy, which emits very few greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. While acknowledging the connection between nuclear fuel making and nuclear bomb building, nuclear power proponents suggest that nuclear proliferation and terrorism risks are readily manageable. Consequently, some of these advocates favor the use of subsidies to stimulate substantial growth of nuclear power.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States