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91. Is a Nuclear Deal with Iran Possible? An Analytical Framework for the Iran Nuclear Negotiations

Author:
James K. Sebenius and Michael K. Singh
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Since assuming the presidency of the United States in January 2009, Barack Obama has tried both outreach and sanctions in an effort to halt Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapons capability. Yet neither President Obama's personal diplomacy nor several rounds of talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council-China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States-plus Germany (the "P5 1") nor escalating sanctions have deterred Tehran. Iran has not only continued but accelerated its nuclear progress, accumulating sufficient low-enriched uranium that, if further enriched, would be sufficient for five nuclear weapons. Consequently, as Iran makes major advances in its nuclear capabilities, speculation has increased that Israel or a United States-led coalition may be nearing the decision to conduct a military strike to disable Iran's nuclear program.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, and France

92. Moving towards Unity: Expanding the Role of the GCC in Gulf Security

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Riyadh Declaration, which was issued at the end of the GCC meeting in December 2011, calls for efforts to explore creating a “single unity” that could deal with the many challenges facing the Arab Gulf states.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

93. Raising our Sights: Russian-American Strategic Restraint in an Age of Vulnerability

Author:
David C. Gompert and Michael Kofman
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The United States and Russia have sought to reduce the danger of nuclear war by limiting offensive strategic capabilities through negotiated agreements, relying on mutual deterrence based on reciprocal threats and the corresponding fear of retaliation. Although nuclear arsenals have been pared, this is fundamentally the same way the United States and Soviet Union sought to reduce the danger of nuclear war during the Cold War, when both were impelled to do so because they were adversaries and able to do so despite being adversaries. It is ironic—not to say unimaginative—that although the two are no longer adversaries, they stick to a path chosen when they were. This current approach is inadequate given new strategic vulnerabilities brought on by technological change. Both the opportunity and the need now exist for a different, more ambitious approach to avoiding strategic conflict—one designed for new possibilities as well as new vulnerabilities. The United States and Russia can and should raise their sights from linear numerical progress to qualitative transformation of their strategic relationship.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

94. Security Sector Governance in Pakistan: Progress, But Many Challenges Persist

Author:
C. Christine Fair
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The utility of the Pakistani army's domination over nearly all aspects of the state in Pakistan was brought into question following the US Navy SEAL raid on Osama bin Ladens hideout on May 2, 2011. Pakistanis wondered how these events could have occurred right under the military's nose. This issue paper examines the prospects for security sector governance in Pakistan and identifies the reforms that are necessary for Pakistan's government to make meaningful strides in this area. It begins by explaining the hegemonic role of the armed forces in the history of the state of Pakistan and the unique challenges of its contemporary security terrain before surveying security sector governance in several key areas: the security of Pakistan's growing nuclear arsenal; the all powerful intelligence agencies; disaster management; law enforcement; the criminal justice system and support to jihadist groups. While the report elucidates persistent shortcomings of security governance in all areas, it also highlights key areas of recent improvement, including disaster management and control of nuclear arms.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and South Asia

95. Turkey and the Bomb

Author:
Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Though most states that want a nuclear weapon can get one through determined effort, the fact remains that most choose not to proliferate. Turkey is no exception. Not even the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is likely to push Ankara to develop its own nuclear weapons. The only circumstance where such a scenario would acquire a degree of likelihood is a breakdown in Turkey's security relationship with the United States.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, and Middle East

96. Thinking About a Korean Denuclearization Treaty

Author:
Christopher Ford
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Even while officials of the United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reportedly remain engaged in attempting to work out an arrangement pursuant to which the DPRK would return to the long-moribund Six-Party Talks process, there has been no shortage of commentators—including this author—who feel these negotiations are likely to founder on the rocks of Pyongyang's unwillingness, under essentially any conditions, to relinquish its nuclear weapons and associated infrastructure. Nevertheless, the DPRK claims that it remains genuinely interested in negotiations, making it at least theoretically possible that whatever their outcome, some kind of nuclear negotiations may recommence.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States and Korea

97. The Path Towards Kazakhstan's Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policy: Convergence of US-Kazakh Interests

Author:
Douglas Townsend
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Upon its conclusion in December 2011, the main part of the sixty-sixth United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 66) session adopted forty-seven resolutions and five decisions in its continuing effort to encourage a more flexible approach to revitalizing the multilateral disarmament process.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States and Central Asia

98. It's Time to Put the Nuclear Issue Behind Us: The Chicago Summit Has More Urgent Priorities than Nuclear Theology

Author:
Kori Schake, Lord Robertson, and Franklin C. Miller
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Slightly over two years ago, NATO was embroiled in an internal controversy of its own creation which bore within it the seeds of a deep crisis within the Alliance. Several governments, impelled by a heady mix of domestic politics and a newly fashionable interest in nuclear disarmament among certain elites, actively sought the removal of US nuclear weapons from the European portion of the Alliance. In doing so, they raised serious questions about their adherence to the central core of the Alliance: the Article 5 guarantee.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and North America

99. A Winning Gambit

Author:
Siegfried S. Hecker
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
CISAC Co-Director Siegfried Hecker explains why nuclear arms states stand to gain more than they lose by ratifying the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). He explains why it is crucial to prevent states from testing nuclear weapons, with the strongest barrier to testing being the CTBT.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and International Security
Political Geography:
United States

100. China-North Korea: Renewal of the "Blood Alliance"

Author:
Masako Ikegami
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
As North Korea's latest rocket-missile launch approaches, there is speculation whether Beijing can halt Pyongyang's missile ambitions. In my view, Beijing will turn a blind eye towards North Korea's latest provocation, while simultaneously calling for restraint by all parties. Recently, the China-North Korea “blood alliance,” a concept of allies that originated during the Korean War, has been renewed, and it is in China's interests that North Korea consolidates its “absolute deterrence” capability to deter US forces in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and North Korea