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121. What NATO can learn from "the surge" in Iraq

Author:
Christopher M. Schnaubelt
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
What a difference 30,000 additional troops and a new strategy make. A few years ago, Afghanistan was commonly viewed as the model of a successful intervention while many politicians, military analysts, and pundits believed that the war in Iraq was being irretrievably lost. Yet today— although conditions still have a long way to go before normalcy has been achieved—the progress in Iraq following “the surge” directed by President Bush in January 2007 is widely recognized. All the indicators of violence: attacks against Iraqi infrastructure and government organizations; small arms, mortar and rocket attacks, and casualties among Iraqi civilians, Iraqi Security Forces, and Coalition Forces have sharply declined since July 2007. The situation has gone from being generally perceived as on the brink of disaster to being a success story (albeit belated and costly).
Topic:
NATO, Terrorism, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

122. Foreword: End of Post-Cold War Honeymoon

Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
Russia's actions in Georgia showed that Moscow has rejected the Western-sponsored vision of transcending military threats in Europe for the ex-Soviet regime. Robert Hunter, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, explains what was lost. Dieter Dettke, a veteran German policy analyst, sees Berlin will not confront Moscow. With much of the global financial superstructure in meltdown, EA's previous analyses are followed up in this issue with a discussion on the limits of sovereign wealth funds as a source of salvation for U.S. and European businesses. In defense, despite the urgent need of a new aerial refueling tanker for the U.S. Air Force, politics has forced an unfortunate delay in the battle between Airbus and Boeing for the order. The book reviews in this issue include an insightful account of the long-term trends making it almost unthinkable for Europe to field enough soldiers to fight any of the world's new wars. Presciently, France's former foreign minister, Hubert Védrine, talked to EA in the summer about the return of nationalist real politik after the demise of over-optimistic assumptions about a Pax Americana.
Topic:
NATO and Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Moscow, and Georgia

123. Georgia: Breakdown of Vision the West Had for a New Europe

Author:
Robert E. Hunter
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
The post-cold war vision proffered by the U.S. and its allies in NATO was an inclusive model of security for all the countries in Europe and for Russia and its neighbors to the south. Russia's leadership has turned away from it, but the vision remains sound and open to Moscow – if the Kremlin thinks wisely about the future.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Georgia

124. Post-Mortem on Europe's First War of the 21st Century

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The small war between Georgia and Russia from 8 to 22 August 2008 has shattered any remaining illusions over the frontiers of the normative map of Europe. All the primary parties have to be criticised: Russia for setting a trap for Saakashvili to fall into, the Georgian leadership for its astounding military and political blunder in falling into it, and the United States for having failed to restrain its protégé. The first consequence is that Georgia has paid the price of Saakashvili's folly, with the definitive loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The second consequence is triggered by Russia's continued occupation of strategic points in Georgia-proper, which means not peacekeeping but threatened strangulation of the Georgian economy and its role in the transit of oil and gas from the Caspian to the West. It also means that business as usual has become impossible, as already announced between NATO and Russia, and with more important decisions pending in both the EU and US. The third consequence is that the EU should immediately step up its policies to integrate Ukraine, with real perspectives of membership subject to the standard criteria. The fourth unknown consequence is how far this deteriorating process between Russia and the West will go. Russia may pretend, with its petro-power and wealth, to be immune from any actions by the West, but beyond the short-term it is vulnerable. Whatever these unknowns, already Russia has crossed a red line with its strategic occupation of Georgia-proper, rather than the option just to push Georgia out of South Ossetia. This latter option would have met with widespread understanding internationally. But with its chosen option Russia has placed itself in another category, which is a throwback to earlier times, and totally incompatible with the political and moral principles of modern Europe.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, War, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

125. Turkey: Partnership on the Brink

Author:
Zeyno Baran
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
Is Turkey turning away from the United States? On the surface, it certainly looks that way. The number of Turks with a positive view of the U.S. has dropped steadily, from 52 percent in 2000, to 30 percent in 2002, to only 13 percent as of June 2008, according to the most recent Pew poll. Seventy percent of Turks consider the U.S. an “enemy.” These numbers are particularly dismal compared to those of other countries polled: only 60 percent of Pakistanis, 39 percent of Egyptians, and 34 percent of Russians and Chinese hold the same views.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Egypt

126. Cyber War I: Estonia Attacked from Russia

Author:
Kertu Ruus
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
Suddenly, the lights go out. Communication lines fall silent. Internet connections are lost. People venturing into the congested streets discover that banks are closed, ATMs are malfunctioning, traffic lights are jammed. Radio and TV stations cannot broadcast. The airports and train stations are shut down. Food production halts, and the water supply starts rapidly diminishing as pumps stop working. Looters are on the rampage; panic grips the public; the police cannot maintain order. This grim picture is not the opening scene of a Hollywood fantasy, but the beginning of a cyber attack, as described by Sami Saydjari, president of Professionals for Cyber Defense, to a Congressional homeland defense subcommittee in April 2007. In vivid terms, he described how a superpower can be reduced to third-world status by a cyber take-down of a nation's electronic infrastructure. The defense expert called his description “a plausible scenario” – and one for which the United States is unprepared. Even if military computer systems are usually protected against outside interference, most civilian electronic systems remain vulnerable to a massive assault that enjoyed the sponsorship of a state.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Estonia

127. NATO Caveats Can Be Made To Work Better for the Alliance

Author:
Robert E. Hunter
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
The NATO allies are now being required to face the possibility that they may not prevail in Afghanistan. Facing new challenges from Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters, the Afghan government and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) are by no means certain of success. Equally at risk are economic, political, and social developments to give the average Afghan a sense that supporting the government in Kabul and its ISAF allies is the best bet for the long haul. Militarily, NATO commanders have made it clear that they need more troops - at least two more combat brigades - and more helicopters. But they also need greater flexibility in the use of those forces that are available, and limitations here are posing difficulties at least as troubling as shortfalls in numbers.
Topic:
NATO and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Europe, and Taliban

128. Faraway Afghanistan Brings Home Tensions Among Allies

Author:
James Leathers
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
Fearing a stalemate in Afghanistan that would be tantamount to defeat for NATO, the Bush administration is browbeating the European allies to step up their military role.
Topic:
NATO and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Europe

129. Kosovo: It IS a Real Geopolitical Precedent

Author:
David Young
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
Supporters of independence for Kosovo because of its painful recent history ignore the fact that Western indifference permitted a cycle of terrorism and repression. That is the real lesson.
Topic:
NATO, Democratization, Sovereignty, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

130. Italy's Growing Burden of Choice in Security Policy

Author:
Roberto Menotti
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
NATO, the EU, and the UN have been the cornerstones of Italy's foreign policy since WWII: although they continue to provide a point of reference, these institutions are undergoing major changes that reflect - and partly create - a very unpredictable international environment. The evolving security agenda, choices made by key allies (especially the United States), and domestic political forces, are putting Italian decision-makers under pressure. There is a serious problem of resource constraints while the country is still unwilling to make clear-cut choices based on unavoidable tradeoffs. The past few years witnessed a mix of continuity and change due to the political orientations of successive governments under these challenging circumstances.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Italy