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211. On the Application of Automatic Differentiation to the Likelihood Function for Dynamic General Equilibrium Models

Author:
Houtan Bastani and Luca Guerrieri
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A key application of automatic differentiation (AD) is to facilitate numerical optimization problems. Such problems are at the core of many estimation techniques, including maximum likelihood. As one of the first applications of AD in the field of economics, we used Tapenade to construct derivatives for the likelihood function of any linear or linearized general equilibrium model solved under the assumption of rational expectations. We view our main contribution as providing an important check on finite-difference (FD) numerical derivatives. We also construct Monte Carlo experiments to compare maximum-likelihood estimates obtained with and without the aid of automatic derivatives. We find that the convergence rate of our optimization algorithm can increase substantially when we use AD derivatives.
Topic:
Economics and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

212. Do Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances?

Author:
Joseph W. Gruber and Steven B. Kamin
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper addresses the popular view that differences in financial development explain the pattern of global current account imbalances. One strain of thinking explains the net flow of capital from developing to industrial economies on the basis of the industrial economies' more advanced financial systems and correspondingly more attractive assets. A related view addresses why the United States has attracted the lion's share of capital flows from developing to industrial economies; it stresses the exceptional depth, breadth, and safety of U.S. financial markets.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

213. Why Do U.S. Cross-Listings Matter?

Author:
Francis E. Warnock, John Ammer, Sara B. Holland, and David C. Smith
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper investigates the underlying determinants of home bias using a comprehensive sample of U.S. investor holdings of foreign stocks. We document that U.S. cross-listings are economically important, as U.S. ownership in a foreign firm roughly doubles upon cross-listing in the United States. We explore the cross-sectional variation in this "cross-listing effect" and show that increases in U.S. investment are largest in firms from weak accounting backgrounds and in firms that are otherwise informationally opaque, indicating that U.S. investors value the improvements in disclosure associated with cross-listing. We confirm that relative equity valuations rise for cross-listed stocks, and provide evidence suggesting that valuation increases are due in part to increases in U.S. shareholder demand and in part to the fact that the equities become more attractive to non-U.S. shareholders.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

214. Policy Liberalization and FDI Growth, 1982 to 2006

Author:
Matthew Adler and Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Over the last three decades the global economy has expanded in a remarkable fashion. While nominal world GDP has increased four times, world bilateral trade flows have grown more than six-fold, and the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown by roughly 20 times since 1980. The sources of global trade and investment growth are well known—general economic expansion, policy liberalization, and better communications and technology—but the impact of each source is unclear. In this paper we attempt to uncover the contribution of policy liberalization to the rising ratios of US inward and outward FDI stocks to GDP over the last three decades.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

215. Markets vs. Monopolies in Education: A Global Review of the Evidence

Author:
Andrew J. Coulson
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Would large-scale, free-market reforms improve educational outcomes for American children? That question cannot be answered by looking at domestic evidence alone. Though innumerable “school choice” programs have been implemented around the United States, none has created a truly free and competitive education marketplace. Existing programs are too small, too restriction laden, or both. To understand how genuine market forces affect school performance, we must cast a wider net, surveying education systems from all over the globe. The present paper undertakes such a review, assessing the results of 25 years of international research comparing market and government provision of education, and explaining why these international experiences are relevant to the United States.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

216. Labor Regulations and European Industrial Specialization: Evidence from Private Equity Investments

Author:
Ant Bozkaya and William R. Kerr
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
European nations empirically substitute between employment protection regulations and labor market expenditures like unemployment insurance benefits in the provision of labor market insurance to workers. While perhaps substitutes from a worker's perspective, employment regulations more directly tax .firms making frequent labor force adjustments. These labor adjustments are especially important for the portfolio companies of both venture capital and buy-out investors. European nations providing worker insurance through labor market expenditures developed stronger domestic private equity markets over the 1990-2004 period than those nations favoring employment protection. These patterns are further evident in US-sourced private equity investments into Europe. Moreover, tests for industry specialization suggest that countries with more flexible labor markets tend to specialize in sectors characterized by high labor volatility. These results are relevant to the literatures examining the impact of labor market regulations on entrepreneurship and productivity growth due to reallocations across .firms and sectors.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

217. Canada and the European Union: Prospects for a Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Selen Sarisoy Guerin and Chris Napoli
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that there are significant potential economic gains to be obtained from an EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement. The evolution of trade between the US and Canada following the signing of CUSFTA in 1989 offers a good illustration of how trade might increase after an EU-Canada FTA, as the patterns and levels of protection between the EU and Canada today are very similar to the protection that existed between the US and Canada in 1989. Although many empirical studies fail to find support for 'trade diversion' created by NAFTA (or CUSFTA) at the expense of the EU and to the benefit of the US, there is some evidence of trade diversion when detailed regional trade is examined. If indeed trade diversion has occurred due to NAFTA, then an EU-Canada FTA is welfare-enhancing for Canada. For the EU, a potential FTA can level the playing field with the US and increase the competitiveness of European firms in the Canadian market.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Canada

218. A Common Vision for the Future: US-Dominican Relations in the 21st Century

Author:
P. Robert Fannin
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
The United States of America's relationship with the Dominican Republic is based on shared goals and aspirations for greater economic prosperity, security and democracy. With an estimated one million Dominican Americans living in the United States, there is a natural constituency for close and collaborative relations between our two countries on the full spectrum of bilateral economic and political issues, and there is a long-term recognition of the need to support our friendship in times of plenty and in times of need. This relationship extends to a common fight to control the illicit trade in narcotics, to strengthening democratic institutions and fighting corruption, building the educational foundation for the Dominican Republic's next generation, and many other vital areas. Yet the true building block of the strength of our relationship starts with the cultural and social ties we share and cultivate.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Markets, and War on Drugs
Political Geography:
United States, Caribbean, and Dominican Republic

219. Organ Sales and Moral Travails: Lessons from the Living Kidney Vendor Program in Iran

Author:
Benjamin E. Hippen
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Kidney transplantation in the United States is burdened by a terrible policy failure. The cost of this failure will be paid in the currency of years of human lives unnecessarily lost, as well as a massive increase in federal expenditures over the next decade and beyond. The number of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States has grown, but the supply of kidneys—for the preferred treatment for ESRD, kidney transplantation— has not kept pace with the demand. Unfortunately, the issue is not simply one of supply and demand: in the United States the supply of kidneys for transplantation is kept artificially low by a prohibition on the sale of human organs.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

220. Dismal Science: The Shortcomings of U.S. School Choice Research and How to Address Them

Author:
John Merrifield
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Pressing questions about the merits of market accountability in K-12 education have spawned a large scholarly literature. Unfortunately, much of that literature is of limited relevance, and some of it is misleading. The studies most widely cited in the United States used intense scrutiny of a few small-scale, restriction-laden U.S. programs—and a handful of larger but still restriction-laden foreign school choice expansions—to assert general conclusions about the effects of "choice," "competition," and "markets." The most intensely studied programs lack most or all of the key elements of market systems, including profit, price change, market entry, and product differentiation—factors that are normally central to any discussion of market effects. In essence, researchers have drawn conclusions about apples by studying lemons.
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States