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581. China's Trade Opening: Implications for Regional Stability

Author:
Howard M. Krawitz
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In late 2001, China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO), a dramatic step that marks not only the end of a 15-year odyssey for Beijing but also the beginning of a new phase in the country's internal development and its relations with the outside world. It may sound odd to suggest that joining the WTO—an organization focused on rules of conduct for trade and commerce—will influence not only China's economy but also its political, military, and social development, as well as its interaction with the United States. Yet China's efforts to play by WTO rules could affect its internal development far more extensively than has been the case with many new member nations.
Topic:
Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

582. Government Expenditures and Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates

Author:
Ronald J. Balvers and Jeffrey H. Bergstrand
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Economists have long investigated theoretically and empirically the relationship between government spending and equilibrium real exchange rates. As Frenkel and Razin (1996) summarize for a small open economy, government expenditures (financed by lump-sum taxes) influence real exchange rates via a resource-withdrawal channel and a consumption-tilting channel. Recent theoretical and empirical studies, such as Froot and Rogoff (1991), Rogoff (1992), De Gregorio, Giovannini, and Krueger (1994), De Gregorio, Giovannini, and Wolf (1994), De Gregorio and Wolf (1994), and Chinn and Johnston (1996), have focused only upon the effects of government spending through the resource-withdrawal channel. Extending Frenkel and Razin (1996), this paper generates closed-form theoretical solutions for the relationships among the real exchange rate, relative per capita private consumption, relative per capita government consumption, and relative per capita tradables and nontradables production in a two-country general equilibrium model. Using relative price level, private and government per capita consumption, and relative productivity data from the Summers and Heston (1991) Penn World Tables and OECD (1996) data for a sample of OECD countries relative to the United States, we estimate the model's structural equations. The results suggest that government expenditures influence equilibrium real exchange rates approximately equally via the resource-withdrawal and consumption-tilting channels. Moreover, the results imply that government spending and private consumption are complements in utility.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

583. The Institutional Dimension of WTO Accession Observations and Practical Guidelines for Improving National Trade-related Governance Capacities

Author:
Uwe Schmidt
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
For developing countries and economies in transition, accession to and membership in the global trade body is a delicate and cumbersome experience. The need to bring national legislation into conformity with WTO rules, negotiating and implementing concessions on market access for trade in goods and services, transparency requirements, emerging new trade issues (e. g. environmental standards), and the necessity to establish and maintain professional trade-related research competence places heavy burdens on applicants and developing members that not infrequently exceed their institutional capacity for formulating policy options or negotiation strategies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

584. Protecting the Environment While Opening Markets in the Americas

Author:
William Krist
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Market Access Negotiations are a major element of the efforts to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by 2020. If successful, these negotiations will remove all tariff and nontariff barriers to trade among the 34 participating countries on all nonagricultural products, including forest and mining products, fish, and manufactured goods.
Topic:
Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

585. Free Trade, Smart Borders, and Homeland Security: U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation in a New Era of Vulnerability

Author:
Stephen Flynn and Anthony Bryan
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In the hours following the collapse of the World Trade Center twin towers on September 11, 2001, the United States applied a tourniquet to the transportation arteries that feed its national economy. The first campaign in the war to protect the U.S. homeland turned out to be an embargo on its own economy. Given the uncertainty surrounding the attacks, freezing its transport networks first and asking questions later was probably appropriate. But then came the hard part—how to resume global trade and travel after U.S. citizens' confidence in the security of their nation had been rocked to core? In the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attacks on the United States, front-line agencies like the U.S. Customs Service, Coast Guard, Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), Department of Agriculture, and Border Patrol were being called upon to open U.S. borders and seaports once again to legitimate trade and travel. At the same time, they were tasked with exercising increased vigilance in detecting and intercepting would-be terrorists or the means of terrorism, including weapons of mass destruction that might be smuggled in a vehicle, train, truck, or maritime container. Just how the United States arrives at the appropriate balance—between openness to facilitate legitimate commerce and exercising sufficient controls to stem transnational threats to public safety and security—is one of the most critical public policy challenges confronting U.S.-Caribbean relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Caribbean

586. China — Securities Opening

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued rules on June 3 outlining the participation of foreign firms in fund management and securities business. Issued earlier than expected, the rules re-state concessions made in the trade and investment agreement China signed with the United States in November 1999. Modernisation and liberalisation of the sector is a prerequisite to channelling more of China's 1 trillion dollars of private savings to equity investment.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and China

587. International — Auto Consolidation

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Fiat announced a sharp fall in May car sales in Italy on June 5 and its debt is under review for a possible ratings downgrade. The world's sixth-largest car maker is one of many manufacturers facing difficult profitability conditions. Global sales volumes in the industry have remained high, but profits have not followed suit. Mergers, the most rational panacea, are confounded by bitter experience.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

588. International — Weak Dollar

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece is on the international implications of a weaker US dollar. Seventeen weeks of dollar weakness raise the questions of whether the dollar is on a sustained path of decline, and what the implications are internationally. The 6% nominal effective decline in the dollar since January 31 might be sustained due to US financial and macroeconomic factors. Overall, the effect would be positive for Europe and the United States, and might encourage domestic demand growth in export-oriented Asian economies.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

589. International — Global Economy

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A textbook approach to economic growth suggests the world is in for a difficult period. However, there are reasons to believe that the global economy will defy convention. The global economy will continue to support US external imbalances for the medium term, barring marked deterioration in certain areas of US weakness. However, European integration and Asian development could provide alternative sources of global demand, relieving the current imbalance of global dependence on the US economy.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

590. International — Steel Fortress

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The United States on March 5 announced tariffs on the vast majority of US steel imports. Despite rumours that he would impose moderate duties, US President Bush levied 30% tariffs on the types of steel accounting for about three-quarters of steel imports. Given that these duties follow hundreds of anti-dumping duties imposed on steel products over the past three years, the decision means that virtually no foreign steel will be sold in the United States. It will also have a host of unforeseen international consequences.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States