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312. China and the United States
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- A new truth of geopolitics has emerged during 2009. It is that the complex and rapidly evolving Sino-American relationship has become the most important bilateral relationship either country has. To this observation, made recently by William C. McCahill Jr. in the November 13 special issue of The China Report, must be added another claim: the course of the Sino-American relationship in both the economic and the political spheres will play a growing role in determining the levels of global economic and geopolitical stability. Trips like President Barack Obama's three-day visit to Shanghai and Beijing November 15–17 will probably be made with increasing frequency in coming years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, Shanghai, and Beijing
313. Inflation Scare: Crazy but Real
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- The recent steps by the Federal Reserve to preempt deflation have—ironically and unexpectedly— prompted a surge in inflation fears both inside the United States and abroad, especially in China. Specifically, the Fed's measures to go beyond the stimulus inherent in a zero percent federal funds rate by purchasing Treasury and mortgage securities has conjured visions—especially in the eyes of major buyers of Treasury securities, China foremost— of massive money printing to underwrite trillions of dollars of additional government borrowing at low interest rates. As markets have shown, if that were the Fed's intention—which it decidedly is not—the effort would fail because excessive money printing—creating a money supply larger than the quantity of money demanded— would push up interest rates as inflation expectations rose.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
314. Three Lessons from the Financial Crisis
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- More than two years have passed since the U.S. housing bubble burst. That event ushered in a financial crisis that was not only intense but also stunning. So stunning in fact, that in August of last year, just a month before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the global economy was close to a crisis worthy of comparison with the Great Depression, yet neither the markets nor the Federal Reserve had much of an inkling of what was to come. The Standard and Poor's (S) 500 Index had come down to about 1,300 from its October 2007 high of 1,576. Positive growth had just been reported for the U.S. economy during the second quarter of 2008 at an annual rate of 2.8 percent (later revised down to 1.5 percent). Almost one percentage point of that growth came from U.S. consumption, and government spending also contributed. The wave of relief after the Bear Stearns scare in March 2008 had provided a nice boost to the economy and to markets. That boost was further enhanced by the substantial contribution to growth from net exports (2.9 percentage points) thanks to what was, then, continuing strength in the global economy, especially in China, which had reported blistering 10.1 percent year-over-year growth in the second quarter of 2008. These and other positive components more than offset a drag from inventories and residential investment. In short, the real economy had not shown much evidence of damage emanating from the chaos that was churning in the financial sector.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
315. Postcrisis Risks
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- The only thing scarier than the slide of the dollar, which has dropped by 15 percent since March, would be an attempt by the Federal Reserve to stop it. Such an attempt would show that we have learned nothing from the Bank of Japan's disastrous premature exit from a zero-interest policy in August 2000. Closer to home, it would resemble the Fed's premature move to mop up “excess” reserves by doubling reserve requirements in three steps between August 1936 and May 1937, which was followed by the third-worst recession of the twentieth century, from May 1937 to June 1938.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Japan
316. U.S.-EU Smart Grid Deployment
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This report, based on the September 11, 2009 workshop on “U.S.-EU Cooperation toward Smart Grid Deployment” recommends that U.S. and EU leaders work in concert with the private sector to enhance the development and deployment of smart grid technologies across the Atlantic. The need for undertaking a holistic approach requires transatlantic cooperation in a number of complex areas, which warrant the establishment of specific public-private working groups focused on creating a common architecture with compatible standards, including those for cyber security, that can be applied in the transatlantic community and rolled out globally.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
317. China's Economic Rise -- Fact and Fiction
- Author:
- Albert Keidel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- China's economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a new report by Albert Keidel concludes. China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. In China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, Keidel examines China's likely economic trajectory and its implications for global commercial, institutional, and military leadership.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
318. Square pegs in round holes: How the Farm Bill squanders chances for a pro-development trade deal
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- When trade ministers from 35 countries gather in Geneva at the World Trade Organization [WTO] for what is being billed yet again as a last-ditch attempt to forge a Doha trade deal, they will be forced to meet an unwelcome guest: the 2008 US Farm Bill. With a host of newly bolstered subsidies that will hurt farmers in developing countries, as well as higher farm payment rates, squeezing the new Farm Bill into the 'boxes' defined under existing WTO obligations will be a remarkable trick. That speaks poorly about the willingness of the US to accept new disciplines on agricultural subsidies, and demonstrates that the US Congress is unwilling - thus far - to take the necessary steps for a new trade agreement that would prioritize development.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and World Trade Organization
- Political Geography:
- Geneva and United States
319. Candidate Issue Index: Trade
- Author:
- Lael Brainard
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Compiled by Brookings Institution experts, this chart is part of a series of issue indices to be published during the 2008 Presidential election cycle. The policy issues included in this series were chosen by Brookings staff and represent the most critical topics facing America's next President. Available voting records and statements vary based on time in office. For candidates who have not been a Member of Congress, public statements are noted when available.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
320. Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan and Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- By exploring the export performances and specialization patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (i) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textile and leather products; (ii) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (iii) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most of the European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (iv) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; and (v) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (vi) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Europe, South Asia, Malaysia, India, Asia, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand