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621. Reforming for Europe

Author:
Seda Ciftci
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
As Ankara struggled through its typically hot summer, the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) was hard at work. The Justice and Development Party (JDP) government, which has 366 seats in the 550-member TGNA, pushed through major legislative packages tied to European Union (EU) requirements for eventual Turkish membership just before its two-month legislative break on August 1. Parallel to its efforts related to its declared primary objective of EU membership, the government also managed to successfully conclude the fifth IMF review, leading to the release of a $500 million tranche and the easing of the debt repayment schedule by the IMF, while endeavoring to repair the crucial relationship with the US.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

622. Seeking Redefinition: U.S.-Turkish Relations After Iraq

Author:
Bulent Aliriza
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
It has been three months since the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) failed to muster the appropriate number of votes to allow the United States to open a northern front through Turkey against Iraq. In retrospect it is clear that the March 1 vote reflected the public opposition to the imminent conflict, the perceptible ambivalence of the powerful military establishment and its reluctance to provide an unambiguous recommendation - in particular at the National Security Council (NSC) meeting one day before the vote - and the attitude of President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. It also reflected the inability of the governing Justice and Development Party (JDP) to overcome its deep misgivings about the war to give a sufficiently clear lead.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

623. Issues Matter: Social Attributes, Political Predispositions, and Issues Influence Voting

Author:
Robert B. Smith
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
To clarify the relative impacts of economic and social issues, this study analyzes a 1992 election night survey assessing how social attributes, ideological selfdesignation (liberal, centrist, conservative), party identification (Democrat, Independent, Republican), and the issues influenced the voters' choices. Residents of coastal regions, women, paid workers, and first time workers leaned toward a liberal ideology whereas ethnic minorities, older people, and poor people espoused a Democratic identification. Ideology had a direct effect on party identification, which had a very strong direct effect on vote. A latent structure analysis of the issues produced a Left-Center-Right classification. The Right is more ideologically consistent than the Left; Clinton got much of the Center's vote and this led to his victory. The issues, combined and separate, influenced the vote. The economic issue had a stronger effect on the Clinton vote than issues of health care reform, the environment, and lack of concern about a candidate's character. The character issue may be rooted in women's health issues: pro-life respondents may disparage the character of pro-choice candidates. The economic issue had little effect on the Perot vote (relative to that for Bush), whereas reform, the environment, and lack of concern about character distinguished Perot voters from Bush voters. Interactions among the issues indicated that Democratic advocacy of environmental protection somewhat weakened the effect of a negative campaign directed against Clinton's character.
Topic:
Demographics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

624. Disenchanted Conscription: A Military Recruitment System in Need of Justification

Author:
Anna Leander
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The Economist's point of view is a widely shared one. It also seems warranted by current trends in policy-making in developed democracies. The US, the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain, and Portugal have abolished or are phasing out conscription. Even France, mother of citizens armies through the revolutionary levée en masse, just saw (literally as the event was broadcasted as a main feature of the evening television news) its last conscript leave the armed forces. The Nordic countries and Germany have not abolished conscription, but conscripts make up a shrinking share of the armed forces, which governments plan to shrink even further. For many observers this confirms that they simply lag behind. They will soon be brought to reason and abolish conscription. But this is a simplistic understanding of what determines the fate of conscription.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, and Portugal

625. Georgia: What Now?

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Georgia's political crisis, which climaxed in the forced resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze on 23 November 2003, is not over yet and could still lead to violence and the country's disintegration. Georgia, in other words, is still pre-conflict, not post- conflict, and exceptional international action is required to contain the potential for chaos. Washington, which quietly supported what U.S. media called the “Rose Revolution”, has promised aid for organisation of the presidential election on 4 January 2004, as has the European Union; other donors should follow suit, and the international community should maintain this support through the equally important and potentially more contentious legislative elections in the spring.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, and Georgia

626. Kashmir: The View From Islamabad

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
More than five decades after independence, Pakistan is no closer to a resolution with India of the dispute over Kashmir. Pakistan and India have fought three wars, two of them over the status of Kashmir. They have been on the brink of war on several other occasions, including in Siachen in 1987 and in Kargil in 1999. From December 2001 to October 2002, the nuclear-armed protagonists came close to war once again when India mobilised along its international border with Pakistan following the terrorist attack on the parliament in New Delhi. Intense diplomatic and political pressure by the U.S., in coordination with other G-8 countries, averted what could have been a catastrophic clash.
Topic:
Security, Government, Regional Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, Kashmir, New Delhi, and Islamabad

627. Bosnia's Brcko: Getting In, Getting On and Getting Out

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is time to consider the future of Brcko District. In particular, it is time to chart an exit strategy for the supervisory regime that will serve both to preserve and extend its and the people of Brcko's accomplishments.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Bosnia, and Eastern Europe

628. Kosovo's Ethnic Dilemma: The Need For A Civic Contract

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A simple but effective formula exists for peace in diverse societies. It consists of a civic contract: the government recognises and supports special rights for minorities, and minorities acknowledge the authority of the government. No elements of such a contract currently exist in Kosovo. The Albanians remain reluctant to support enhanced rights for the Serb minority, and the Serb community does not recognise the authority of Kosovo's institutions. Moreover, Kosovo is not a state and the future status of the province remains unresolved. After four years of United Nations authority in Kosovo, the foundation of this civic contract and of sustainable peace has not been laid.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

629. A Marriage Of Inconvenience: Montenegro 2003

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is time for new policies and new approaches on Montenegro. International engagement with that republic in recent years has brought significant positive results. It bolstered the pro-Western government of Djukanovic when it faced the threat from Milosevic. It has helped promote reforms that have set Montenegro on the way to becoming a modern democracy, with a market economy and an independent, effective criminal justice system. However, efforts to promote regional stability have been hampered by an unnecessary obsession with keeping Montenegro and Serbia in a single state. The international community's overriding interest in the region should be to find stable, long-term solutions. Cobbling together interim solutions that lack legitimacy for those who must implement them and that are unlikely, therefore, to be functional in practice, is not the way to build stability.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Eastern Europe

630. Aceh: A Fragile Peace

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 9 December 2002, an agreement on cessation of hostilities in Aceh was concluded in Geneva, bringing hope that an end to the 26-year-old conflict between Indonesian government forces and guerrillas of the pro-independence Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka or GAM) was in sight. Since then there have been many positive developments, most strikingly, a dramatic drop in the level of violence.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Geneva, United States, Central Asia, and Indonesia