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501. America's Resilient Consumers

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Among the more remarkable features of the U.S. economy over the past five years—through a tech-stock collapse (from which we have still not recovered), the 9/11 disaster, and numerous chastening corporate scandals —has been the extraordinary resilience of American consumers. To paraphrase H. L. Mencken, no one has ever gone broke (at least not recently) by overestimating the willingness of Americans to spend money.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and America

502. Can the Fed Achieve a Goldilocks Tightening?

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The persistence of annualized economic growth of about 3.5 percent—despite crude oil prices between $50 and $60 per barrel—has led many analysts to claim that the U.S. economy has already "absorbed" the shock of $2.35-plus-pergallon prices for self-serve regular gasoline along with a rise in heating oil costs of more than 30 percent over the last year. As if to underscore their insouciance over energy costs, American consumers accelerated the volume of vehicle purchases in June, especially those of light trucks that get only twelve or thirteen miles per gallon.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and America

503. What Markets Are Saying

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Paul Samuelson once quipped elegantly that (falling) stock prices had predicted seven out of the last three recessions. There is indeed wisdom in the suggestion to ignore wiggles in the financial markets as indicators of the behavior of the real economy that produces goods and services.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

504. The Difficult Search for "Neutrality"

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The Federal Reserve's measured move toward a "neutral" federal funds rate, the short-term rate that keeps the economy growing at about 3.5 percent, is a tricky process. No one knows with certainty what the neutral fed funds rate is, and it changes over time. As long as the Fed keeps raising rates and the economy keeps growing at or above trend, it is reasonable to infer that the neutral fed funds rate is higher than the current rate. The corollary to that proposition is that rates have to be boosted above the neutral rate, inducing an asset market collapse, a real economy slowdown, or both to infer that the neutral rate has been exceeded. It is beginning to appear as though the current rate of 2.75 percent is at or above neutral. If so, that would be about a full percentage point below what many were guessing.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

505. A Fitting Address

Author:
James Q. Wilson
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
My fellow Americans, we are winning, and winning decisively, in Iraq and the Middle East. We defeated Saddam Hussein's army in just a few weeks. None of the disasters that many feared would follow our invasion occurred. Our troops did not have to fight door to door to take Baghdad. The Iraqi oil fields were not set on fire. There was no civil war between the Sunnis and the Shiites. There was no grave humanitarian crisis. Saddam Hussein was captured and is awaiting trial. His two murderous sons are dead. Most of the leading members of Saddam's regime have been captured or killed. After our easy military victory, we found ourselves inadequately prepared to defeat the terrorist insurgents, but now we are prevailing.
Topic:
Civil Society and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Baghdad

506. Germany's Bad Example for Iraq

Author:
Michael S. Greve
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Berlin is far from Baghdad, and the Germans at least want to keep it that way. But for all the obvious differences, Germany's inconclusive election results and the impending constitutional referendum in Iraq point to some identical obstacles to effective and constitutional government. These obstacles are proportional representation and “cooperative federalism.” As it happens, well-meaning UN officials, NGOs, and U.S. advisers have been urging these constitutional arrangements upon numerous fledgling democracies, including Iraq. That may not be good advice.
Topic:
Government and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Baghdad, Germany, and Berlin

507. Why Does College Cost So Much?

Author:
Richard Vedder
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As college students begin a new academic year, many parents are reeling from tuition charges. This fall's estimated 8 percent average increase at public universities, added onto double-digit hikes in the two previous years, means tuition at a typical state university is up 36 percent over 2002—at a time when consumer prices in general have risen less than 9 percent. In inflation-adjusted terms, tuition today is roughly triple what it was when parents of today's college students attended school in the 1970s. Tuition charges are rising faster than family incomes, an unsustainable trend in the long run. This holds true even when scholarships and financial aid are considered. One consequence of rising costs is that college enrollments are no longer increasing as much as before. Price-sensitive groups such as low-income students and minorities are missing out. A smaller proportion of Hispanics between eighteen and twenty-four attends college today than in 1976. The United States is beginning to fall below some other industrial nations in population-adjusted college attendance.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

508. A Bias against the Best and Brightest

Author:
John R. Lott Jr.
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Statistical evidence indicates that qualifications, experience, and potential influence are far greater factors in delaying or rejecting judicial nominees than perceptions of extremism.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

509. Yemeni President Saleh Comes to Washington

Author:
Simon Henderson and Khairi Abaza
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The November 10 meeting at the White House between U.S. president George W. Bush and Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh will be the third time the two men have met since the September 11 terror attacks on the United States. Yemen is an oft-forgotten close U.S. ally, arguably as crucial to the success of the war on terror as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, or Egypt. The south Arabian country, with its rugged, desert landscape, remains a sanctuary for al-Qaeda operatives. With seacoasts along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Yemen dominates the Bab el-Mandab shipping chokepoint, the route by which oil from the Persian Gulf reaches the Suez Canal and hence the European market. (A French supertanker was badly damaged in an al-Qaeda attack off the Yemeni coast in 2002.)
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Washington, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

510. Saudi Arabia's Debate on Women Driving Masks a Deeper Divide

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During the last several months, the question of whether women in Saudi Arabia should be allowed to drive has become a lively topic of debate within the kingdom. Support for the issue has come from the newly enthroned King Abdullah; the most prominent opponent is the long-serving interior minister, Prince Nayef. The men are viewed as political rivals frequently at odds over a range of policies. Increasingly, women driving seems a metaphor for the series of security, economic, and educational challenges facing the kingdom—and therefore a tempting policy opportunity for the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Gender Issues, Government, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia