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Begin New Search Topic Global Recession Political Geography United States

1. Demand-determined potential output: a revision and update of Okun’s original method

Author:
Claudia Fontanari, Antonella Palumbo, and Chiara Salvatori
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper challenges the mainstream view of potential output, and enquires into the supposed effects of Great Recession on potential growth. We identify in the demand-led growth perspective a more promising theoretical framework both to define the notion and to gauge the long-term effects of a demand slow down. Based on the poor reliability of standard estimates of potential output, we also propose an alternative calculation. This is based on an update of Arthur M. Okun’s original method for estimating potential output, which, differently from the estimation methods currently in use, does not rely on the notion of NAIRU, thus being immune to its theoretical and empirical shortcomings. Our calculation, based on a re-estimation of Okun’s Law on US quarterly data, shows both how far an economy generally operates from its production possibilities, and how much potential growth is affected by the actual growth of demand over time. These wide margins for expansion of actual and potential output growth imply that a determined policy of demand expansion would create, given time, the very capacity that justifies it.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Economic growth, Macroeconomics, and Demand
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

2. Global Debt Dynamics: What Has Gone Wrong

Author:
Andreas Antoniades and Stephany Griffith-Jones
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
This paper analyses the nature and characteristics of global debt dynamics in the post global financial crisis (GFC) period. First, we attempt to map the ways in which debt has been moving from sector to sector, and from one group of countries to another within the global economy. By capturing this inter-sectorial, inter-national, inter-regional movements of global debt we aspire to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of global debt and its mode of operation. Second, we attempt to analyse what is wrong with global debt dynamics, i.e. we examine the broken link between what global debt was supposed to do and what it does. Here, we point to three interrelated dynamics: the accumulation of unproductive debt, growing inequalities of income and wealth, and the increase in privately-created, interest-bearing money.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Global Focus, and Global Markets

3. US recovery on track

Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Recent US data have been uneven. An improving manufacturing ISM survey was offset by non-manufacturing data being worse than expected. Last week a strong consumer credit number was balanced by weaker small business confidence. The US economy almost certainly went through a soft patch in Q2. However, on balance the recovery–unexciting as it has been–remains on track, with some possible further mileage to be had from equities. This is consistent with the recent dovish statement by Fed Chairman Bernanke, suggesting that the tapering of quantitative easing is still some way off.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

4. Faster taper – limited impact

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Markets took fright after Ben Bernanke's press conference on 19 June at the prospect of an early end to QE. Bond purchases might be tapered off sooner, as the Fed now expects unemployment to fall to its target of 6.5% next year rather than in 2015. It is not yet clear whether any of the bonds bought as part of QE will eventually be sold off. While it is obvious that an end to the Fed's purchases will have an impact on output growth and asset prices, our Global Economic Model shows that the effects will be limited.
Topic:
Markets, Global Recession, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

5. How Can Trade Policy Help America Compete?

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
America deserves credit for not having succumbed to the global financial crisis by repeating the protectionist mistakes of the 1930s. Nonetheless, since 2007, although lip service has been paid to boosting US exports, its trade policy accomplishments have been modest. This is unfortunate because active trade policies can promote American living standards and facilitate America's return to full employment and sustained growth. These policies can also help to create a global trade order that advances American interests. This policy brief argues that the United States needs new initiatives that discipline foreign practices, increase access to foreign markets, revitalize the World Trade Organization (WTO), improve the administrative and regulatory environment for trade, and assist workers and communities adversely affected by change.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

6. The Fed moves to provide more transparency

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The Federal Reserve has taken additional actions to make its monetary policy more transparent to markets. The latest moves include the release of FOMC members' expectatins for the federal funds rate at the end of each of the next few years and in the longer term. Another is an statement of strategy for meeting its dual mandates of price stability and full employment. Although the statement included an explicit target for inflation but not for unemployment, the equal weights given to each goal afford the Fed more discretion in setting monetary policy.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

7. Country Forecast: Global outlook

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Three years after the global economy reached its lowest point in three-quarters of a century, the recovery remains incomplete and the outlook uncertain. On March 9th 2009, the capitalisation of Morgan Stanley\'s global stockmarket index fell to US$26trn, nearly 60% below its 2007 peak. Today, the value of the world\'s stockmarkets has yet to return to the pre-crisis level—nor has the confidence of most consumers and businesses. The excesses of the last ten years—the personal debt accumulated early in the last decade and the public debt added during the recession—have saddled many countries with weak economic foundations and little or no resilience to shocks. This has left the US economy, in particular, struggling for a third straight year to lock in faster growth. It has left debt-ravaged Europe in recession and China manoeuvring unsteadily to deflate a bubble. On the brighter side, the global economy will grow again this year and the imbalances that built up over the past decade will continue to unwind. But global growth will be slower this year than last, and a host of risks—from elevated oil prices to war in the Middle East, to the collapse of Europe\'s single currency—will weigh on confidence and reduce spending and investment.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

8. What Made the Financial Crisis Systemic?

Author:
Patric H. Hendershott and Kevin Villani
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The current narrative regarding the 2008 systemic financial system collapse is that numerous seemingly unrelated events occurred in unregulated or underregulated markets, requiring widespread bailouts of actors across the financial spectrum, from mortgage borrowers to investors in money market funds. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, created by the U.S. Congress to investigate the causes of the crisis, promotes this politically convenient narrative, and the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act operationalizes it by completing the progressive extension of federal protection and regulation of banking and finance that began in the 1930s so that it now covers virtually all financial activities, including hedge funds and proprietary trading. The Dodd-Frank Act further charges the newly created Financial Stability Oversight Council, made up of politicians, bureaucrats, and university professors, with preventing a subsequent systemic crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

9. Webinar: Lower the floor or raise the ceiling? US fiscal and economic outlook

Author:
Leo Abruzzese
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
A serious deficit-reduction debate is underway. Despite wide policy differences, this is encouraging and long overdue. Agreement on some basic steps may happen soon. A serious, long-term deal won't happen until after the election. A credible plan will require revenue increases. These won't come quickly or easily, but they are unavoidable, The debt ceiling will be raised, amidst much drama. The US will not default on its debt. The US economy is still recovering...but higher energy and food prices are creating headwinds.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

10. Housing Policy in the U.S.: The Evolving Sub-national Role

Author:
Robert M. Buckley and Alex F. Schwartz
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper provides a general overview of U.S. housing policy, with emphasis on state and local programs. Despite the focus on local programs we also discuss the broader national policy environment. This broader context is necessary because national policies play a crucial role in shaping the country's housing markets. We briefly trace out some of the key features of the housing market, highlighting tenure distributions, housing conditions and costs. Particular emphasis is given to the role of increasing housing costs and the housing opportunities of the poor. The paper also describes: (1) the nation's housing finance and tax systems, focusing on the different ways the government uses the tax code to subsidize homeowners and renters; and (2) state and local government programs, often implemented in the close collaboration of nonprofit organizations. A final section provides a brief overview of the strengths and weaknesses of U.S. housing policy and the evolving role of sub-national governments.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States