Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The threat of terrorism has received enormous attention in the last decade. Anxieties ran particularly high at the turn of the millennium, which fortunately passed without a major terrorist incident. Virtually all states expend some resources to combat terrorism. The policies, programs, and operations that governments undertake to meet this challenge are known collectively as counterterrorism. Although this term is only a few decades old, the practice of counterterrorism is as old as terrorism itself. Like terrorism, counterterrorism is easily recognized, even if its boundaries are somewhat imprecise.
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The threat of biological weapons (BW) is usually associated with terrible outbreaks of human illness. Receiving substantially less attention from the media, however, is the fact that BW can also be used against agricultural targets as strategic economic weapons. Agriculture accounts for about 13 percent of the United States' annual gross domestic product. 1996 U.S. cash receipts for livestock, poultry, and crops totaled more than $200 billion. An attack on agriculture could have enormous economic consequences.
In November 2000, just after the presidential elections in the United States, negotiators will meet in The Hague at the sixth meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP6) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). By then, it will have been almost three years since the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol on global climate change at COP3, which was held in Kyoto in December 1997. Intense negotiations over the intervening period have focused on how to implement the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol has been signed by 84 countries but not ratified by any of the key countries, and ratification does not appear to be imminent, especially in the United States, where the Senate has registered its strong opposition.
Since the end of the Cold War, a fundamental shift in national security policy has taken place in the United States. No longer restricting itself to such issues as military alliances, the strategic behavior of other great powers, and nuclear strike capabilities, security policy now tackles environmental degradation, poverty, infectious diseases, drug use, and other problems. Moreover, it increasingly posits them as threats to the national security of the United States.
Over the past 15 months, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), in close collaboration with US Government specialists and a wide range of experts outside the government, has worked to identify major drivers and trends that will shape the world of 2015. The key drivers identified are: Demographics, Natural resources and environment, Science and technology, The global economy and globalization, National and international governance, Future conflict, The role of the United States. In examining these drivers, several points should be kept in mind: No single driver or trend will dominate the global future in 2015 Each driver will have varying impacts in different regions and countries The drivers are not necessarily mutually reinforcing; in some cases, they will work at cross-purposes. Taken together, these drivers and trends intersect to create an integrated picture of the world of 2015, about which we can make projections with varying degrees of confidence and identify some troubling uncertainties of strategic importance to the United States.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Government, and Science and Technology
New and reemerging infectious diseases will pose a rising global health threat and will complicate US and global security over the next 20 years. These diseases will endanger US citizens at home and abroad, threaten US armed forces deployed overseas, and exacerbate social and political instability in key countries and regions in which the United States has significant interests.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Human Welfare, and National Security
William M. Daley, Andrea Durbin, Mikhail Gorbachev, Martin Albrow, Stacy D. Vandeever, Anju Sharma, Stephen Clarkson, Kent Hughes, and Tamar Gutner
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Free trade, seen by many as the engine of world economic growth, has once again become the subject of bitter dispute. Nowhere was this more evident than at the meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Seattle at the end of 1999. There, environmentalists joined with trade unionists and advocates for developing countries in staging mass protests. These diverse groups claimed the WTO is unrepresentative and undemocratic, overlooking environmental interests and those of the world's poor in favor of big business. Inside the negotiating halls, the United States and the European Union clashed over agricultural subsidies and genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Developing country representatives complained that they remained marginalized in the official talks.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Human populations have put pressure on their natural surroundings throughout history. Yet the world is now facing truly global environmental challenges and rapid population growth in the final half of the twentieth century is a critical component to understanding these phenomena. In his article, Ambassador Richard Benedick examines a host of population dynamics and their complex interlinkages with three representative environmental issue areas: forests, freshwater resources, and climate change. These connections raise the importance of meeting the commitments made at the 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population and Development. Benedick maintains that investments in measures to slow the rate of population growth-and thereby to reach a stable population earlier, and at lower levels, than under current trends-would significantly reinforce efforts to address the environmental challenges of the century ahead, and considerably lower the cost of such efforts.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death, accounting for a quarter to a third of all deaths worldwide. The spread of infectious diseases results from both human behavior such as lifestyle choices, land-use patterns, increased trade and travel, and inappropriate use of antibiotic drugs, as well as mutations in pathogens. These excerpts from a January 2000 National Intelligence Estimate highlight the rising global health threat of new and reemerging infectious diseases. The National Intelligence Council argues that the infectious disease threat will complicate U.S. and global security over the next twenty years. These diseases will endanger U.S. citizens at home and abroad, threaten U.S. armed forces deployed overseas, and exacerbate social and political instability in key countries and regions in which the United States has significant interests, according to the report.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Papua is a leading example of a failed decolonization process. Indonesian integration-cum-colonization of Papua—implemented with U.S. complicity—has amounted to an undeclared war against the indigenous population. Indonesia's military buildup and East Timor-style militia activities threaten to destabilize Papua and the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Environment, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights