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1. Spies, Election Meddling, And Disinformation: Past And Present

Author:
Calder Walton
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Spies, election meddling, disinformation, influence operations, data har- vesting: at present, it seems barely a moment passes without another intelligence scandal breaking on our news feeds. Following Russia’s “sweeping and systematic” attack on the 2016 U.S. presidential election—which was intended to support Moscow’s favored candidate, Donald J. Trump, and undermine his opponent, Hillary Clinton—the media frequently labeled the operation “unprecedented.” The social-media technologies that Russia deployed in its cyber-attack on the United States in 2016 were certainly new, but Russia’s strategy was far from unusual. In fact, the Kremlin has a long history of meddling in U.S. and other Western democratic elections and manufacturing disinformation to discredit and divide the West. Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, a former KGB officer, has reconstituted and updated the KGB’s old Cold War playbook for the new digital age. This paper, an exercise of applied history, has two aims: first, to understand the history of Soviet disinformation, and second, to make sense of Western efforts to counter it during the Cold War. Doing so provides policy-relevant conclusions from history about countering disinformation produced by Russia and other authoritarian regimes today.
Topic:
Elections, Cybersecurity, Democracy, Election watch, and Espionage
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Soviet Union

2. Spitzenkandidaten and shifting electorates: Towards the 2019 European Parliament elections

Author:
Milan Igrutinović
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
European political parties are preparing themselves for the European Parliament elections in May 2019. With the UK formally leaving the EU at the end of March, the number of MEP seats for the election will decrease from 751 to 705, with a wider range of Brexit issues that will have to be dealt in the run-up. Also, Jean-Claude Juncker will not run again and that will leave the position at the head of the European Commission open for a new candidate. During the mandate of the current Commission sweeping changes occurred across the EU and, maybe more importantly, outside of it. The migrant crisis that exploded in late 2015 has shifted the way politics is debated in the EU and in the member states. The advent of ISIS in the Middle East and North Africa and the number of terrorist attacks in Europe have highlighted the security nexus between internal EU security and its neighbourhood. Russia has remained a strategic challenge and with it the security of Eastern Europe remains in question. The election of Donald Trump in the US and uncertainty of Transatlantic relations and global trade rules that came with him have become a new and important factor in international politics. Brexit has shown that the “ever closer Union” slogan rings hollow and that the process of EU expansion is reversible. A string of national elections has shown how deep and complex political issues in Europe really are, and how centre-left parties are under pressure with diminishing vote share. On top of that, political debates about the internal EU reform are yet to offer any tangible result.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, Election watch, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

3. The Uncertain Iraqi Election: The Need for a New U.S. Strategy

Author:
Anthony H Cordesman
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Iraqi election in May 2018 has both highlighted Iraq's political uncertainties and the security challenges the United States now faces in Iraq and the Middle East. What initially appeared to be a relative honest election gradually emerged to have involved massive potential fraud, and forced a manual recount of the results of a failed electronic voting system. Its results have cast Iraq's ability to form an effective post-ISIS government into serious doubt, along with its ability to carry our follow-up provincial and local elections in October. At the same time, even the initial results of the election raised serious concerns over the level of future U.S. confrontation with Iran. The United States faced grave uncertainties regarding Iran's influence in Iraq even when it seemed that Iraq's existing Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, was likely to win the election. The election's uncertain results, and U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear agreement, now virtually ensure that a far more intense struggle for influence will take place in Iraq and the rest of the region.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, ISIS, Election watch, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East