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431. Is Indonesia Bound for the BRICs?

Author:
Karen Brooks
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Indonesia is in the midst of a yearlong debut on the world stage. This past spring and summer, it hosted a series of high-profile summits, including for the Overseas Private Investment Corporation in May, the World Economic Forum on East Asia the same month, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in July. With each event, Indonesia received broad praise for its leadership and achievements. This coming-out party will culminate in November, when the country hosts the East Asia Summit, which U.S. President Barack Obama and world leaders from 17 other countries will attend. As attention turns to Indonesia, the time is ripe to assess whether Jakarta can live up to all the hype. A little over ten years ago, during the height of the Asian financial crisis, Indonesia looked like a state on the brink of collapse. The rupiah was in a death spiral, protests against President Suharto's regime had turned into riots, and violence had erupted against Indonesia's ethnic Chinese community. The chaos left the country -- the fourth largest in the world, a sprawling archipelago including more than 17,000 islands, 200 million people, and the world's largest Muslim population -- without a clear leader. Today, Indonesia is hailed as a model democracy and is a darling of the international financial community. The Jakarta Stock Exchange has been among the world's top performers in recent years, and some analysts have even called for adding Indonesia to the ranks of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). More recent efforts to identify the economic superstars of the future -- Goldman Sachs' "Next 11," PricewaterhouseCoopers' "E-7" (emerging 7), The Economist's "CIVETS" (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa), and Citigroup's "3G" -- all include Indonesia.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Indonesia, India, East Asia, Brazil, and Island

432. Africa Unleashed

Author:
Edward Miguel
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Steven Radelet's accessible new book argues that much of the credit for Africa's recent economic boom goes to its increasingly open political systems. But Radelet fails to answer the deeper question: why some countries have managed to develop successful democracies while others have tried but failed.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Asia, and Liberia

433. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment

Author:
Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

434. The Year to Date

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The array of postbubble stresses and uncertainties identified in the January 2010 Economic Outlook (“The Year Ahead”) promised that the new year would see plenty of volatility in markets. That is exactly what is playing out as we move through the first quarter. As risks accumulate, it may be that 2010 is shaping up as a mirror image of 2009, reversing last year's down-then-up pattern with an up-then-down pattern this year.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Europe

435. An Unfinished Revolution

Author:
Shadi Hamid
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 25 January 2011, the first day of Egypt's uprising, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton affirmed: "our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable." Eighteen days later, Egypt had a revolution, which concluded when the Egyptian military forced President Hosni Mubarak to step down from his position. After this remarkable turn of events, the Egyptian regime was simultaneously thought to be both more ruthless and more unified. After several years of impressive economic growth, the regime had the support of a powerful emerging business elite. It also had the United States as its primary benefactor. None of that was enough.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
United States and Egypt

436. The New "Supercommittee": An "Optimistic" View

Author:
Jared Lobdell
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
An October New York Times story remarked that “with just five weeks until its deadline, a secretive Congressional committee seeking ways to cut the federal deficit is far from a consensus, and party leaders may need to step in if they want to ensure agreement, say people involved in the panel's work.” We have this “supercommittee” of twelve members of Congress, ostensibly for the purpose of cutting a minimum $1.2 trillion from our deficit, chosen by four appointers, none agreeing with any other on exactly what ought to be done, representing mostly diametrically opposing wings of two parties with irreconcilable differences.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

437. A Pragmatic Ideal for Global Economic Governance Reform

Author:
Barry Herman
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper asks how the world of sovereign countries should arrange itself to address global and international economic, financial, social or environmental problems. The current system of institutions and arrangements, informally led by the Group of 20, as convoked by the United States, is hardly ideal. The paper proposes a “pragmatic” alternative with multiple checks and balances, but able to reach timely and effective decisions on the full range of international policy issues. The paper concludes noting that dissatisfaction with current arrangements has reopened intergovernmental debate; it is not the same as undertaking reform, but it is a start.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

438. Saudi Arabia in the New Middle East

Author:
F. Gregory Gause III
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
There is arguably no more unlikely U.S. ally than Saudi Arabia: monarchical, deeply conservative socially, promoter of an austere and intolerant version of Islam, birthplace of Osama bin Laden and fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers. Consequently, there is no U.S. ally less well understood. Many U.S. policymakers assume that the Saudi regime is fragile, despite its remarkable record of domestic stability in the turbulent Middle East. “It is an unstable country in an unstable region,” one congressional staffer said in July 2011. Yet it is the Arab country least affected in its domestic politics by the Arab upheavals of 2011. Many who think it is unstable domestically also paradoxically attribute enormous power to it, to the extent that they depict it as leading a “counterrevolution” against those upheavals throughout the region. 2 One wonders just how “counterrevolutionary” the Saudis are when they have supported the NATO campaign against Muammar al-Qaddafi, successfully negotiated the transfer of power from Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, and condemned the crackdown on protestors by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, and how powerful they are when they could do little to help their ally Hosni Mubarak in Egypt.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

439. Multilateralism in Trade at Risk: Should and Can we Rescue the Doha Round?

Author:
Jagdish Bhagwati, Pascal Lamy, Michael Moore, and Leif Pagrotsky
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program will feature an introduction by: - Pascal Lamy, Director-General of the World Trade Organization Followed by a panel discussion with: - Jagdish Bhagwati, University Professor of Economics Law, Columbia University; Economic Policy Adviser to Director General of GATT (1991-1993) - Michael Moore, Former Director General of World Trade Organization and Prime Minister of New Zealand; Ambassador of New Zealand to the United States - Leif Pagrotsky, Swedish Minister for Trade(1997-2004); currently member of the Swedish Parliament and of the Executive Board of the Social Democratic Party.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and New Zealand

440. Multilateral Political Missions and Preventive Diplomacy

Author:
Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Multilateral political missions—teams of primarily civilian experts deployed by international and regional organizations with medium- to long-term mandates—play an overlooked role in preventing conflicts in fragile states. Their roles range from addressing long-term tensions to facilitating agreements to quelling escalating violence. More than six thousand personnel are deployed in political missions worldwide. The United Nations and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe oversee the majority of these missions. Although many political missions deal with active conflicts or post conflict situations, some have contributed to conflict prevention in countries ranging from Estonia to Guinea. In the right circumstances, multilateral missions can provide expertise and impartial assistance that national diplomats—whether ambassadors or special envoys—cannot. The activities of political missions include short-term preventive diplomacy, the promotion of the rule of law, and the provision of advice on socioeconomic issues. Some are also involved in monitoring human rights and the implementation of political agreements. Others have regional mandates allowing them to address multiple potential conflicts. A political mission's role differs depending on how far a potential conflict has evolved. In cases where latent tensions threaten long-term stability, a mission can focus on social and legal mechanisms to reduce the risk of escalation. Where a conflict is already escalating, a mission can become directly involved in mediating a peaceful resolution. Even where a conflict tips into full-scale war, a political mission may assist in mitigating violence or keeping political channels open. To strengthen political missions, the United States and its partners should work with the UN Secretariat to revise the rules governing the planning, funding, and start-up processes for political missions and overhaul U.N. personnel rules to make recruiting civilian experts easier. They should also encourage regional organizations to invest more in this type of conflict management tool.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, International Law, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States